What Happens to This Toronto Maple Leafs Team AFTER the Playoffs?

There’s a lot of ink being spilled currently about what might happen with the Toronto Maple Leafs in their upcoming playoff series against the Tampa Bay Lightning (and hopefully beyond).

Let’s jump ahead a bit and speculate about what awaits the Toronto Maple Leafs after somebody has hoisted the Stanley Cup in June.

Of course, the  Leafs level of success or failure in these playoffs will dictate what ultimately happens in June.

A long playoff run (whether it ends with a Cup victory or not) will have radically different consequences to the roster than another first round flameout.  Something in-between (say, a victory over the Lightning followed by a tough loss against Boston) will leave a lot of questions and many possible paths forward for the decision makers.

Toronto Maple Leafs: What Happens Next?

If the Leafs win at least a couple of series this spring, there will be a very strong argument to roll the core of this roster back for another crack at the Cup next season.  That means negotiating contract extensions for both Auston Matthews and William Nylander this summer.

Without going too far down the rabbit hole of Matthews’ own plans for his future, a strong playoff showing for the team this year will go a long way towards convincing him (and Nylander) to re-sign early.

Keeping the roster somewhat intact past the current season means deciding who stays and who walks, among the many UFA’s needing new contracts.  The Toronto Maple Leafs would do well to keep depth players such as David Kampf, Noel Acciari and Zach-Aston Reese.

It would also be nice to keep Michael Bunting and Ryan O’Reilly, but they will both have competing offers from other teams and could leave for greener pastures.  Similarly, Alex Kerfoot is a useful guy on the roster, but certainly not at his current $3.5M salary (contract info from capfriendly.com).

On the crowded blue line, at least two and perhaps all three of Luke Schenn, Justin Holl and Erik Gustaffson will be gone.  In net, a new contract will be negotiated for restricted free agent Ilya Samsonov.  Joseph Woll will be promoted to full time backup status, and the oft-injured Matt Murray will be traded.

If disaster strikes and Toronto loses again in the first round, we may see huge changes.  None of the following would be surprising:  Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe fired.  William Nylander traded.  Much of the supporting roster either left unsigned or traded.  In other words, the end of a frustrating era.

However, this would be a reset, not a rebuild.  Most of the core talent would remain.  Add in a newly hired coaching staff and a new mix of young players (Knies, Woll, Holmberg, maybe Robertson or Niemela) and veterans, and expectations would again be high for Stanley Cup success.

There is a very good chance that reality ends up somewhere between these polar opposite outcomes.  The Toronto Maple Leafs should beat the Tampa Bay Lightning.  That could earn the Leafs a series with a juggernaut Boston Bruins squad.  What happens if the Bruins end Toronto’s season in round 2?

It’s an insane first two rounds, if the Leafs get through the first one, it’s hard to see their being major consequences if they don’t manage to slay the Bruins.