Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning – Why This Year is Different

Toronto Maple Leafs fans were crushed last spring when their team lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning in game 7 of the opening playoff round.  Why should we expect a different result this time around?

First of all, the Toronto Maple Leafs are a year older. Their top three scorers (Marner, Nylander, Matthews) average 25 years old, and are just coming into their prime.

They are hungry for success.

The Lightning are also a year older. Their top three scorers (Kucherov, Point, Stamkos) average 29 years old, with Stamkos and perhaps Kucherov past their peak (although still excellent).

They’ve skated a LOT of miles to achieve their success over the past few years. They finished the regular season with only 9 wins in their last 24 games. Toronto won 15 over the same stretch.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning – Why This Year is Different

Secondly, the players taking the ice for Toronto this year are more cut out for playoff battles than last season’s group.  Look at some of the players that suited up against Tampa Bay last year.

Ondrej Kase played hurt, and his career basically ended due to multiple concussions. Jason Spezza (love his heart) was out of gas and retired after the playoffs. Colin Blackwell did nothing with Toronto. Kyle Clifford played one game, earned a suspension, and is now buried with the Marlies.

Wayne Simmonds was an undisciplined mess in his 2 games, and is probably done with the Leafs. Pierre Engvall, no longer a Leaf, was terrible in last year’s playoffs. Jake Muzzin was playing hurt.

Their replacements look much more promising.  Calle Jarnkrok, career year so far.  Ryan O’Reilly, former Conn Smythe winner.  Noel Acciari, tenacious and gritty.  Sam Lafferty, fast and gritty.  Zach Aston-Reese, hardworking and gritty.  Matthew Knies, who looks great so far and could surprise a lot of people.  Jake McCabe, totally pumped for his first playoffs.  Luke Schenn, ready to fill in Patrick Maroon again at a moment’s notice..

The third reason for optimism is goaltending.  Jack Campbell was awesome to start last season but his game and confidence slowly went downhill from there.  The team hoped he would be okay in the playoffs.  Campbell’s  SV% in 7 playoff games against the Lightning was .897. No alternative was available, as the shaky Erik Kallgren backed up. Not good enough.

This year, Ilya Samsonov has been great for the Toronto Maple Leafs, with a .919 SV%. His teammates clearly believe in him. Not to mention the rapidly rising backup Joseph Woll and his .932 SV% (all stats from statmuse.com).

Andrei Vasilevskiy’s will once again man the crease for Tampa Bay.  His SV% this season is .915, which is fine, but his worst result since 2015-16.

Finally, there is the no-fear factor.  Last year the Toronto Maple Leafs thought they were better than the Tampa Bay Lightning, and hoped they would win. They were somewhat right as they ended up losing in seven games by a single goal, after dubious officiating in game six gave Tampa a distinct advantage.

This year the Leafs know they are better than the Lightning, and they expect to win. Last season’s Leafs projected confidence, but underneath that thin shell was a layer of fear.  Pat Maroon and Corey Perry exploited that just enough to disrupt Toronto’s mojo.

The fact that Sheldon Keefe felt the need to dress Clifford and Simmonds says it all. Don’t expect to see those two on the ice in this playoff series, as Kyle Dubas filled up the team’s jam jars by acquiring McCabe, O’Reilly. This edition of the Leafs will not give an inch when the rough stuff begins.