Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews Drop-Off Is Just Superficial

The Toronto Maple Leafs are a better team than they were a year ago.

The difference between last year’s Toronto Maple Leafs and this years is not stark, but with Giordano, Liljegren and Sandin all playing as some of the best 5v5 defenseman in the NHL, the Leafs blue-line is better today than it was on this day last year.

Ilya Samsonov is a major upgrade on what Jack Campbell was doing last year at this time as well (remember, he fell off a cliff, performance wise, in December).

While Auston Matthews isn’t going to win the Hart Trophy this year, I don’t think his current production vs last year’s really hurts the team at all.

In fact, the criticisms of Matthews – that he’s not as good as he was a year ago – are unfounded. (all stats naturalstattrick.com). It turns out that his drop-off is mostly superficial.

Toronto Maple Leafs Best Player Still Just As Good As Always

Most of the criticism comes from people just looking at the raw totals of Matthews, comparing them to last year and to McDavid, and drawing the incorrect conclusion that he’s not playing as well.

Connor McDavid has 92 points, Matthews has 53.  Connor has 41 goals, Matthews is 18th overall with 25.

But dig down a bit, and it’s not that bad.

Matthews is scoring more points per minute at 5v5 than McDavid, who is in turn outscoring Matthews in goals per minute.  Still, their 5v5 numbers are similar.

Erik Karlsson leads all NHL players with 43 5v5 points, but Matthews is 13th and only four points out of second place.  In one game he could lead all NHL forwards in 5v5 points, while also being an elite defender.

He’s only 7 goals off the 5v5 pace, and could still lead the NHL in that category.

But here is where things get impressive: Matthews shooting percentage last year was 16% and this year it’s 11%.  That’s just 5v5.  In total, his shooting percentage is down to 12 and-a-half from 17-and-a-quarter.

That’s a big drop.  NHL players really have no control over what happens once they release their shots, and these types of year-to-year fluctuations are not at all abnormal.

And here is why this matters: His individual scoring chances per minute, and his individual high-danger shot attempts-per minute are actually up this year over last year.  He’s taking the same amount of shots per minute on the power-play.

He is playing better in some ways, and he’s just not getting the results he got last year.

Also, the Toronto Maple Leafs on the whole are doing better when Matthews is on the ice this year than when he was last year.

Last year, the Leafs outscored their opposition with Matthews on the ice by getting 59% of the total goals.

This year they have outscored the opposition 47-24 for 66%, which is incredible.  Connor McDavid might have 92 points, but the Oilers are only winning his minutes by 4 goals.

In conclusion, Auston Matthews is still going to finish close to 50 goals and 100 points, but the fall off from last year’s gaudy totals is mostly superficial.  He still continues to be the best overall player at 5v5 where 80% of each game is played, and he continues to be an elite defender, and the best two-way  player, who is an elite scorer, since Sidney Crosby’s prime.