Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews Has Somehow Gotten Better

The Toronto Maple Leafs have played just three games, and they have won two of them.

One big question entering the season was what Toronto Maple Leafs franchise player Auston Matthews would do for an encore, after scoring 50 goals in 50 games last year on his way to a 60 goal season.

The Leafs have scored 3 goals in each game, for a total of nine goals.  Two of them came on the power-play, one into an empty net, and six of them were 5v5.

The Leafs were 3rd last year in 5v5 goals per minute, and this year, so far, they are 18th.  Auston Matthews has just one goal in total (a tip in, 5v5) and I think we can expect them to score quite a bit more than they have going forward.

But how has Matthews played? Instead of three goals so far, he has just one. He also has just the one assist.

And yet, the underlying numbers tell us the same thing they always have: Best player in the world.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews Off to a Great Start

Despite only having two points in three games, Matthews numbers are incredible.  If he keeps this up, he might actually score more than last season.

Corsi:  In the game of hockey, shot-attempts give you a fairly accurate impression of who has the most puck possession.  Possession of the puck leads to goals, and eventually, wins.  Though the correlation between Expected Goals and winning is stronger than either Corsi or Actual Goals, Cori is still an excellent stat to get an impression of how things are going.

Auston Matthews current Corsi Percentage is 70%. You might say “Hey Jim,  that’s a small sample size with just three games” to which I would agree.  But I would also point out that it is first out of all forwards who have played over 30 minutes this year.  (All stats naturalstattrick.com).

When Auston Matthews is on the ice, the Leafs dominate. I know some people don’t think much of “advanced stats” but even they must admit that a team that has the puck for seven out every ten minutes is probably going to win most the time in the long run.

That is just common sense.

With Matthews on the ice. the Leafs have outshot their three opponents 30-16 for a shots-for percentage of 65%.  That is insane.  Last year, when he won the Hart, he posted a shots-for of 59%.

He won the Hart with a 63% Expected Goals rating.  51% is very good.

This year, he’s rocking a preposterous 71% Expected Goals. 

Even for three games, that’s berserk.

Last year, Auston took 4.7 shots per game, personally.

This year, he’s taking 5.6 per game.

Auston Matthews is likely due for an offensive explosion in the next game or two.  You know, to even things out a bit.

He has started the year off with improvements across the board to all the underlying statistics we know eventually lead to goals.

He scored 50 goals in 50 game. He posted the best individual NHL season by a skater since Mario Lemieux in 1996.

That wasn’t his peak.