The Remarkably Consistent Toronto Maple Leafs Win Again

The Toronto Maple Leafs continued their absolute dominance last night in LA, beating the Kings 6-2.

Unfortunately, the cost was high as Toronto Maple Leafs third-line shutdown centre David Kampf left the game after hitting his head.  The team cited “precautionary reasons” and said he would be “re-evaluated” later.

Here is hoping Kampf is OK because he has been a revelation  this year so far.  Of all players in the NHL who have played a minimum of 200 minutes 5v5, Kampf leads them all with the smallest percentage of his shifts starting in the offensive zone.

His regular linemates – Kase and Engvall –  are second and third.  Despite playing insanely difficult minutes, Kampf has a 51% Corsi Rating and is breaking even in the goals department (6-6) while posting a positive expected-goals rating.  This line has been incredibly effective and here is hoping that Kampf doesn’t miss any time.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs LA Kings

After the injury, head coach Sheldon Keefe used a combination of Nylander, Kerfoot, Engvall and Tavares to fill in for Kampf.  It didn’t really matter, thanks to a multi-point night from – who else –  Pierre Engvall.

Due for an offensive breakout in what has been his breakout season, Engvall potted a goal and an assist, to lead the way for the Leafs.  Talk about an accurate prediction! 

It goes without saying that Jack Campbell was fantastic again.  Matthews scored his 3rd 5v5 goal of the season, while Tavares had two points and Michael Bunting even got in on the festivities.

The Leafs were absolutely fantastic in this one.  Check out this heat map if you don’t believe me (like all stats here, from naturalstattrick.com).  The puck possession and the shots were fairly close, but the difference in this one (and pretty much every game the Toronto Maple Leafs play) is their ability to get chances in close.  High-Danger Chances were 21-12 for the Leafs.

They have now won 12 out of 14 and show no signs of slowing down.  Everything is clicking. They have two fantastic first lines, a third line that creates easy matchups by going out against top lines, and a fourth line that is not only effective, but fun to watch and easy to cheer for.

Which brings me to their blueline – what it lacks in star power it makes up for in effectiveness.  The Leafs have seven capable top-four defenders, and every single one of them can move the puck.  The mobility of the Leafs blueline is a huge factor in their consistency.

And just how consistent are the Leafs?  They have an Expected-Goals rating of 50% or better in 17 of 21 games so far this year, all seven games in last year’s playoffs, and ten of the last 12 games of last season.

In the Toronto Maple Leafs last 40 games (combined playoffs and regular season) they have had an Expected Goals rating of 50% or more in 34 of 40 games.   If there was no luck, and the best team just won every game, the Leafs record in these games would be 32-6-2  which would be a points percentage of 85%.