Toronto Maple Leafs: Regular Season Defensive Pairing Predictions

Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs had one of the most defensively sound systems in years. With a couple of offseason changes on the back end this year, what will the blue line look like for the 2021-22 season?

The 2020-21 season brought us a number of great storylines for the Toronto Maple Leafs and their defense. We saw the emergence of Justin Holl and Rasmus Sandin and watched them turn into competent NHL blueliners, while newly acquired free agent T.J. Brodie brought a breath of fresh air to the back end with solid two-way play.

This year the look of the lines at (healthy) even strength will likely be pretty much the same with a minor tweak on the bottom pairing with the departure of Zach Bogosian to Tampa.

We start off today with the easy one, the Rielly Brodie pairing.

Leafs Defensive Pairing #1: Rielly-Brodie

We saw them play together all year last year, and (for the most part) we loved them. Brodie and Rielly played the most out of any Leaf blueliners last year, as well as into the playoffs, and served as strong back-end options for all situations.

From breaking it out of their own end to jumping up into the offense, or to Brodie becoming a  master at breaking up and handling 2-on-1s, this pairing did it all.

Last season, Rielly finished with a total of 35 points in 55 games, a PPG pace of 0.64. It’s not quite the same as the 0.88 PPG, 72 point masterpiece he put together just a couple of years ago, but as a defenseman, there are still no complaints at that pace. (stats naturalstattrick.com).

Brodie finished with only 14 points on the score sheet, but his presence was much more than that. Not only was he someone who Keefe trusted in all situations and became a master at breaking up 2-on-1s, but he finished tied for 2nd on the team in blocks, with 84, something you love to see out of any defenseman.

It would be nice to see a little more of a step-up of numbers on the offensive things from Brodie, but if not, no one is going to complain. He does the little things right and on this Toronto Maple Leafs team, we could always use a little more of that.

The need for a strong partner on the right side was a long time coming for Rielly, and from what we saw last season, there isn’t any reason for the pair to split up.

Toronto Maple Leafs Defensive Pairing #2: Muzzin-Holl

Like the Rielly-Brodie pairing, this one should not come as a surprise to anyone.

Muzzin and Holl (or as I like to call the beard and the flow) are the Leafs shutdown D. With a total of 178 blocks, 183 hits, and a couple of booming shots from the point, these two come to play – and play hard.

Even though last season was Justin Holls second full-time season with the Leafs, the 2020-21 season served as a coming-out party for him. Although sort of awkward to watch, Holl gets the job done by using his size to cut off defenders and being physical. Let us not forget, most nights he likely will be the only right-handed shot on the Leafs defense – a commodity the Leafs need.

Last season Holl finished with a total of 20 points in 55 games, and that came along with finishing second in team hits (82) and blocks (84).

As far as Jake Muzzin goes, he is all beard and there is nothing to complain about there. He finished with 27 points in 53 games and was first in team hits (121) and blocks (94) last season. It was devastating when the Leafs lost Muzzin for the last game of the Montreal series.

Neither of the two gives anything to anyone in the corners or in front of the net and they are never afraid to let a bomb rip for the point – in fact, I wouldn’t mind if they did a little more often.

This pairing, like the one previous, is one that can be used in any situation and is Keefes go-to on the penalty kill. They have the will and the know-how to shut down just about any line in the NHL.

Toronto Maple Leafs Defensive Pairing #3: Sandin-Dermott*

This pairing is the one that is getting a little bit juicier with changes. While neither are really veterans – a combining measly 245 games between the two of them – both certainly fall under the tier of an NHL-caliber defenseman.

Last season Dermott appeared in a total of 51 games with a total of 6 points, with his role being limited to just above 13 minutes a night; over 4 minutes less per night than that of previous years (all stats hockeyreference.com).

Dermott, now 24, is entering his 5th full-time NHL season with the Leafs, and it would be nice to see the Newmarket native take a jump in his play on the ice. Whether that means being better on the defensive side of things by picking up a couple of things from T.J. Brodie or stepping more into the offensive fold of things by not being afraid to jump into the rush, much like Rielly does.

Sandin on, the other hand – well he’s a little different. Not even two years ago Sandin was named the WJC Best Defenseman of the tournament, and now at the young age 21, he has only 37 NHL games under his belt, with a scarce 9 last season due to injury.

It’s obvious throughout his career that with only 14 minutes of ice time a night, Keefe wants to protect Sandin and develop him right. However, from some glimpses we saw last year, it is very possible that Sandin can soon become a legitimate household NHL name.

From last season you can easily tell that the offensive game is there for Sandin – remember the howitzer goal in the playoffs last year? – he just needs a little work on the defensive side of his game. Sometimes a little too hesitant with the puck, he will give it up while holding the line or when trying to break it out of his own corner; again though, just the small things to fix.

https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1396265459184459776

Although these two are a legitimate option for the bottom pairing, there are other options among the system in guys like Alex Biega, Timothy Liljegren, and Brendan Menell who can always step in in case of injuries and fill that role.

* Note that recent practices have seen Liljegren ahead of Dermott. That is a little unexpected, and may only be because the Leafs already know what they have in Dermott.  It will definitely be interesting to see what they do come Wednesday.

Leafs Powerplay

The Toronto Maple Leafs and their power-play lineup shouldn’t really shock many – even with the new look with Marner manning the middle of the ice.

The first unit will have Rielly (of course) quarterbacking it and on his off side it’s seeming to look like Matthews will take the other back pairing spot. Both provide a threat of a shot from nearly anywhere in the ice, and neither are afraid to carry it down low and create a pretty pass cross-ice.

As far as the second unit goes, from the looks of things, it will be the 21-year-old Rasmus Sandin stepping back into the fold. He can make the smart pass, and as mentioned earlier,  he has the strength and power to rip some bombs from the point.

The other backend on that unit can be really any filler from the top 9 lines. From the looks of pre-season, it’ll be Ondrej Kase getting the chance to start the season.

The two finished 1 and 2 for power-play TOI last season with the Leafs; Rielly sitting at an average of 2:55 and Sandin with an average of 1:45 per night. Other viable options in case of injury, or just straight up not working, would be Jake Muzzin and T.J. Brodie, both of who stepped in when needed last year.