Toronto Maple Leafs: 3 Scenarios for the Future of Morgan Rielly
With one year left on a $5M AVV contract, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a big decision to make regarding Morgan Rielly this offseason.
Since 2013, Morgan Rielly has been a great professional for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Prior to the Auston Matthews Era, Rielly was a bright spot in a dark and difficult time.
Finding a young great skating defenseman is tough, but fortunately for Leafs fans everywhere, Brian Burke did so when he drafted Rielly fifth overall in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft.
On a team that is filled with superstars, serious consideration was given to Rielly in regards to becoming the next captain of the Leafs. It would have been an easy and popular decision to give him that title, but the “C” went to John Tavares instead.
Rielly is the longest tenured Maple Leaf and it would be a real shame if that reign ended anytime soon. Although you could make the argument that Jake Muzzin and T.J. Brodie are better than Rielly, he’s the heart-and-soul of the team’s defense and it’s always nice to see a homegrown talent flourish.
By all accounts, it feels like Rielly would want to stay in Toronto and try to win a Stanley Cup here, but if he becomes a free agent, it may be a lot easier to chase the money instead of a ring. As a result, the Leafs have a big decision to make this offseason, as Rielly gets set to become an Unrestricted Free Agent for the first time in his career.
Here are three scenarios that could happen with Morgan Rielly over the next year.
No. 1: Let Him Walk
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been known to let players walk into free agency over the past few years. Whether it was Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, Freddie Andersen, Nick Foligno or Zach Hyman, the team hasn’t had any issue with seeing someone leave without receiving compensation.
The idea of trading a good player who’s going to be a UFA, just to receive a draft pick, is a silly idea, if you’re a good team. A second-round pick is not as valuable as the star player you’d be trading off of your roster heading into the playoffs. People always say “you lost him for nothing” but actually you chose to take his post trade-deadline performance instead of the future compensation. If you have a chance to win a Stanley Cup it’s a reasonable trade off for any team to make.
Rielly is an important piece to Toronto’s blue-line and it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to let the 2021-22 season play out and let him walk to free agency.
Also, by letting him walk into free agency, it doesn’t technically mean he won’t be able to return, or you may not want him to return.
Just look at the Freddie Andersen situation as an example. Toronto could have signed him to an extension the year prior, but they let the season play out and it worked out in their favor. Andersen played his way out of a contract and it turned into a smart move to let him walk.
Everyone knows the type of player that Rielly is, so it’s not likely that his AAV is going to skyrocket in one season. Therefore, playing the season out before making a decision could be a smart move, in case of injury or a huge dip in production.
No. 2: Re-Sign Him to Extension
Although I just mentioned that Rielly’s contract probably isn’t going to skyrocket in the next season, it’s always better to negotiate against yourself, then another 10-15 teams who would be interested in Rielly’s services.
There’s always one or two teams with a ton of cap-space that overpay for a defenseman and that could happen to Rielly if he hits the open market next offseason.
If Rielly wants to stay in Toronto and Toronto wants him to be here long-term, there’s no reason not to sign him to an extension now, instead of contract talks weighing on them for the entire 2021-22 season.
Rielly has never played for a different organization and seems to love being a Leaf, so both parties should want to get a deal done as soon as possible. Rielly has had serious injury problems in the past, so getting a guaranteed contract early could be something he wants to do.
Toronto’s defense, and top-four specifically, will look much worse without Rielly and since it’s very hard to find a top-four defense via trade/free agency already, signing Rielly now could be a smart move for both parties.
No. 3: Trade Him
Many Toronto Maple Leafs fans would hate this scenario. For years, Rielly has been a fan-favourite and the #44 has been worn all throughout Scotiabank Arena and down Bay Street. However, if Toronto doesn’t want to pay him, you better trade him ASAP to get the biggest return possible.
Trading Rielly would be a tough decision to make. Not just because he’s the longest tenured player and a top-four defenseman, but because there’s no way they would win the trade. When you make a trade, you want to get the best player in that package, but in this case, it seems almost impossible that they would.
It’s possible that Toronto could receive a first-round pick that turns into a quality player, but that individual probably wouldn’t be making an impact for another three years. The Leafs are in a win-now mode, so they would need a NHL player in return to make the deal work, or they would have to have someone lined up to sign/trade for with that cap-space they’d create from Rielly’s absence.
Either way, the thought of Rielly get traded this offseason seems very unlikely because it doesn’t help this team compete for a Stanley Cup in 2022.
The only way that Rielly gets traded is if the Leafs are out of the playoff hunt by the Trade Deadline and want to capitalize on an asset, but that’s also a scenario that doesn’t seem likely.
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We’ll have to wait and see what happens, but expect Rielly to be on the Toronto Maple Leafs, not only for the 2021-22 campaign, but for many more seasons after that.