Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews Actually Getting Better

Auston Matthews is not only the most prolific goal scorer in Toronto Maple Leafs history, he’s also one of the best to ever play the sport.

While cruising to the inevitable, his first Rocket Richard trophy, the Toronto Maple Leafs best player in franchise history scored his 40th goal of the season against the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday night.

The NHL released a tweet that puts the achievement into some historical perspective (see below).

There’s a lot to unpack here, so I’m going to break down what Austin Matthews is doing in a little bit more detail.  A lot has been written about McDavid chasing 100 points and the MVP, which I think he deserves by the way, but what Auston Matthews is doing is arguably just as impressive and not getting anywhere near the level of adulation.

Auston Matthews Historical Pace

Let’s start with the 40 goals in 49 games.  It’s the 6th fastest to 40 goals in modern history, and puts Matthews on a list of absolutely iconic offensive players.  I remember watching everybody on that list.  They all owned the game at one point or another in their prime.

Interestingly, it took 20+ years for a another player (Matthews) to make that list.  That gap in time says a lot about two things.  The incredible talent of Matthews and the era in which he plays.

Year                   Team avg goals/gm               Matthews goals/gm

2016-17                        2.77                                               0.49

2017-18                        2.97                                               0.55

2018-19                        3.01                                               0.54

2019-20                        3.02                                               0.67

2020-21                        2.93                                               0.82

While league scoring went up slightly in 2017, it hit a plateau and has established a new normal for the current Matthews era at around 2.98 goals per game for the average team (all stats via www.hockey-reference.com).  While the league seems to have found a new median, Matthews has found no such thing.  Auston just keeps reaching new levels year after year and it doesn’t look like anything anybody else is doing anything close to what he is capable of.  He is setting his own standard outside of league averages, and he is only 23 years old.

To put Matthews in perspective relative to his peers, I looked up a goals/60 model that is available here.  Since the league began keeping TOI as a statistic, which dates back to 1997, Auston Matthews is first among all NHL players in goals per 60 minutes of ice time.  His G/60 of 1.868 is in a league of it’s own, with Ovechkin coming in behind him at 1.754.  Steven Stamkos is 3rd at 1.621.

To break that down even further, Matthews is also first in 5v5 G/60 at 1.663 over that same time.  Ovechkin is 2nd with 1.435.  That is not an insignificant gap.  Most era-adjusted scoring numbers show Ovechkin as the best goal scorer ever.  If somebody told you that the #1 goal scorer in the history of the league trailed Auston Matthews in G/60, while he was still in his prime, would you believe them?  Without seeing the data, most people would not, but it’s actually true.

Scoring goals is one thing but playing hockey is about more than just scoring goals.  Something to note about the prolific scoring of Auston Matthews is the fact that he plays center.  Auston Matthews is a legitimate #1 C that takes on all match-ups in all situations with the exception of killing penalties, and he does this in the middle of the ice.

Playing center in the NHL encompasses a lot more responsibility on the ice than playing on the wing.  It’s a much more challenging position.  In both the G/gm and G/60 tables, most of the goal scorers of Matthew’s caliber are wingers.  Malkin at 11th and Crosby at 14th are the next two natural centers on the G/60 list.  On the NHL list of quickest to 40 goals, only Mario Lemieux is a natural center.

This is worth repeating, but not only is Matthews out-scoring everybody since 1997, but he’s playing way tougher minutes than almost all of them while he’s doing it.  If you add in the defensive value that Matthews has added to his game in the last 18 months, what Matthews is really doing as a complete player in the league is kind of bonkers.

Chris Johnston put an article out here that talks about the growth of Matthew’s defensive impact last year, from which I will repeat some of the numbers he was mentioning.

Toronto Maple Leafs Most Complete Player

Auston Matthews was first on the Toronto Leafs in total contested puck battles, winning the highest percentage of them in all three zones.  He led all Leaf forwards in rebound recoveries in the defensive zone.  Inner slot shots and slot passes were drastically in favor of the Leafs when Matthews was on the ice.  All of this while he had the lowest turnover rates on the team in both the offensive and defensive zones.  These are crucial elements of defensive success.

Matthews has continued that performance this season.  Marner deserves plenty of credit for the team’s success this year as he has been outstanding, but Matthews is the guy that really drives the bus.  Matthews is the guy that is an unstoppable force.

All due respect to Connor McDavid, and I’ll repeat the fact that I do think he deservedly wins the MVP this year, but the NHL needs to spend a lot more time talking about Auston Matthews.  It’s crazy to think, but safe to say, that Matthews is probably undervalued.  Matthews is actually one the most underrated players in the league, not because people don’t talk about him, but because he is actually so good that people should be talking about him way more than they do.

He is quietly giving us a consistent view of what a hall of fame player looks like, and he’s doing it in the pressure cooker that is Leaf Nation.  All things being equal, we are witnessing what will probably be the greatest Leaf of all time, the greatest American-born player of all time, and the greatest goal-scorer in the history of the game.

Do yourself a favor, sit back, relax, and genuinely enjoy the show.  It is a privilege to watch this guy play the most beautiful sport in the world, and he does it while wearing a Toronto Maple Leafs jersey.

Go Leafs!