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Toronto Maple Leafs: Thoughts on Sandin, Dermott, and Matthews

By Jordan Maresky

TORONTO, ON - MARCH 27: William Nylander #88 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates his game tying goal against the Edmonton Oilers with teammates John Tavares #91 and Justin Holl #3 during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on March 27, 2021 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Oilers 4-3 in overtime. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - MARCH 27: William Nylander #88 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates his game tying goal against the Edmonton Oilers with teammates John Tavares #91 and Justin Holl #3 during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on March 27, 2021 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Oilers 4-3 in overtime. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /
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TORONTO, ON – APRIL 7: Corey Perry #94 of the Montreal Canadiens watches an incoming shot against Jake Muzzin #8 and Jack Campbell #36 of the Toronto Maple Leafs   (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – APRIL 7: Corey Perry #94 of the Montreal Canadiens watches an incoming shot against Jake Muzzin #8 and Jack Campbell #36 of the Toronto Maple Leafs   (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /

Thought #1: Leafs Defensive Improvement

A big theme of the season I have been pushing hard for is how impressive the Toronto Maple Leafs have looked in their own end. The Achilles heel of recent Toronto teams’ has been team defense and it is ultimately what has derailed the past four playoff series in the Matthews-Marner-Nylander era.

In the previous edition of this exercise, I detailed how public data has not been an accurate depiction of Keefe’s defensive system and the improvement his roster has made in that regard. Private companies such as Sportlogiq were able to paint Toronto as a more defensively sound team whereas a website like Natural Stat Trick was not able to do so.

However, that has changed as of late.

In terms of expected goals goals-against per 60 minutes, the Toronto Maple Leafs rank fourth, sandwiched between the swarming structure of the Dallas Stars and the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning, and not far behind the current cup favorites, the Colorado Avalanche, who lead the pack (stats; Natural Stat Trick).

Similarly, the Leafs also rank seventh league-wide in high-danger chances against per 60. Protecting the net-front area has been a key element of Keefe and assistant coach Dave Hakstol’s system, where conceding point shots in favour of slot chances has lead the team to success thus far.

This commitment to team defense is what has not allowed the Leafs to falter in the face of questionable goaltending thus far. Frederik Andersen has not played since March 19th. Jack Campbell has battled injuries himself. Michael Hutchinson, although sporting solid numbers this season, was the team’s fourth goalie entering the year. David Rittich has had his own struggles as well.

The night-and-day turnaround from this season to last is nothing short of remarkable.

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