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Toronto Maple Leafs: The Five Thought Weekly Roundup

By Jordan Maresky

TORONTO, ON - MARCH 9: The Toronto Maple Leafs trio of Zach Hyman #11, Mitchell Marner #16, and Auston Matthews #34 set up a late play against the Winnipeg Jets in an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on March 9, 2021 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Jets defeated the Maple Leafs 4-3. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - MARCH 9: The Toronto Maple Leafs trio of Zach Hyman #11, Mitchell Marner #16, and Auston Matthews #34 set up a late play against the Winnipeg Jets in an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on March 9, 2021 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Jets defeated the Maple Leafs 4-3. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /
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TORONTO, ON – FEBRUARY 17: Head coach Sheldon Keefe of the Toronto Maple Leafs . (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – FEBRUARY 17: Head coach Sheldon Keefe of the Toronto Maple Leafs . (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /

Thought #5: Leafs Defensive Improvement

The narrative surrounding the Leafs this season has turned.

Before, Toronto was thought of as a free-flowing, trading-high-danger-chances type of team. This season, however, the considerable dedication to defensive improvement has been noticeable. Ranking sixth league-wide in goals-against per game, the two-way game of the Toronto Maple Leafs has been taken to new heights.

That being said, public data from sites such as Natural Stat Trick or Evolving Hockey still paint the team as an average to below-average defensive team. As such, James Mirtle of The Athletic detailed how public data does not accurately represent the defensive improvement the Leafs have made this season.

Take a look at some even-strength per 60 minutes stats for the Leafs last season compared to this:

(stats from Mirtle’s March 4th article)

Shot Attempts: 54.9 vs. 51.2

Unblocked Shot Attempts: 42.4 vs. 39.0

Shots on goal: 30.6 vs. 27.7

Expected goals: 2.30 vs. 2.14

Scoring chances: 26.5 vs. 25.6

High-danger chances: 11.0 vs. 9.9

Those numbers appear to paint the picture of minimal progression the Leafs have made in their own end, but as someone who watches every game, it seemed odd as the data did not line up with the eye-test.

But using private data from Sportlogiq, you can genuinely see the commitment to defense the team has made.

From the article:

"According to several sources around the league, it’s in some of the micro-stats that Sportlogiq and other similar companies track that the Leafs have made the biggest gains. Example? Last season, in odd-man rushes against at even strength, the Leafs were among the 10 worst teams in the league. This year, they’re up into the top five. Other areas where the Leafs have made a significant improvement? 1. Shots and shot attempts against from the slot area. 2. Passes to the slot against, especially uncontested ones. 3. High-danger shots against off the rush. The Leafs were in the bottom 10 in all of those statistics at even strength last season. Now, in many cases, they’re up among the league leaders. Or, at worst, league average."

The takeaway from Mirtle’s exercise is public data has generally underrated the Toronto Maple Leafs this season.

Next. Toronto Maple Leafs: 4 Defenseman Team Could Trade For This Week. dark

It remains to be seen what happens over the next week or so. It is clear Kyle Dubas is looking for some forward depth, and as we head down the back half of the regular season, gear up Leafsnation, the Toronto Maple Leafs are looking good.

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