Who Seattle Might Draft off the Toronto Maple Leafs
The NHL is expanding again, which means the Toronto Maple Leafs are in danger of losing players. We break down who is likely to be exposed in the draft.
The NHL season hasn’t yet begun but that doesn’t mean that the Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t begun thinking about what the upcoming expansion draft will mean to the organization.
With the Seattle Kraken set to become the latest franchise to join the league, every team’s general manager has needed to plot their moves carefully in anticipation of the process that sends one player from each NHL team to the expansion club.
The Leafs have some time to figure out their plan, which should involve some tinkering throughout the season. Bob McKenzie reported that teams will need to have their protected lists ready for July 17, giving Seattle four days to prepare for their selections.
NHL Expansion
The expansion draft rules remain the same as they were when the Vegas Golden Knights joined the NHL in 2017. Teams can select one of two models to choose from in order to protect players from being plucked out of their organization.
July 17 is the date set for NHL teams to submit protected lists for Seattle expansion draft with the actual draft taking place on July 21, two days before the July 23-24 entry draft.
— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) December 20, 2020
The first and sure to be the most popular option is protecting seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie. This protects a total of 11 players. The other option is to protect eight skaters and a goalie for a total of nine players. The latter would be used if a team coveted more than three of its defensemen and wanted to ensure it kept them all.
There are also some conditions to this draft. Any player with a no-movement clause who declines to waive it must be protected by his team. For the Maple Leafs, this only applies to their captain, John Tavares. This means he’s guaranteed to be one of either the 11 or nine players the Leafs need to protect.
There is also a rule that states, “All first- and second-year NHL players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits.)” This is great news for Toronto because it will protect their upcoming studs, Nick Robertson and Rasmus Sandin. It will also shelter Ilya Mikheyev, Timothy Lilijgren, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Mac Hollowell, Joseph Woll, Mikhail Abramov, Filip Král, Filip Hållander, Ian Scott, and Kristians Rubins.
This group, along with the pending free agents, helps to paint a picture of who may be left for Kyle Dubas to shield. According to CapFriendly, Freddie Andersen, Zach Hyman, Alexander Barabanov, Wayne Simmonds, Jimmy Vesey, Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton, Travis Boyd, Zach Bogosian, Mikko Lehtonen, Kenny Agostino, Kalle Kossila (who was recently placed on waivers), Calle Rosén, Martin Marincin, David Warsofsky, and Aaron Dell are all set to become unrestricted free agents. Unless the NHL group is re-signed prior to the expansion draft, the Leafs won’t need to use a spot on any of these players.
The final rule that will affect the Leafs is that all clubs must expose players that meet specific minimum requirements. Teams must have “one defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.
Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons. One goalie who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the end of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If a team elects to make a restricted free agent goalie available to meet this requirement, that goalie must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the team’s protected list.” This helps us begin to start sorting players into one of two categories, “protect” and “expose”.
Who the Toronto Maple Leafs will Protect and Lose
We already know that Tavares needs to be on this list. That leaves either six more forwards and three defensemen or just seven other skaters depending on the model the Leafs choose. There is no doubt that the Maple Leafs will also protect Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander from their forward group. If these four forwards are the only ones Toronto wants to protect, it then leaves four defensemen to shield. Those would likely be Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, TJ Brodie, and then one of Travis Dermott or Justin Holl.
Most likely, Dubas will end up protecting seven forwards and three defensemen, which would mean that there’s a good chance that Alex Kerfoot and two re-signed forwards get left off the list of available players. Unfortunately, it would mean that both Justin Holl and Dermott get exposed to the Kraken. If that were to happen, Seattle would happily take one of the two of them.
Dermott seems like the easy choice of the pair being four years younger than Holl with a higher upside. It could turn out to be Holl getting plucked if he repeats what he did season. The Kraken are also aware that Dermott is set to become a restricted free agent, which means that Toronto could potentially re-sign and overpay the defender to a degree that becomes unappealing for Seattle.
Goaltending
With there being a good chance that valuable defenders like Dermott and Holl are left exposed, the Toronto Maple Leafs won’t need to be as concerned about which goaltender is available for the expansion draft since they will only lose one player to the process.
Since Andersen is set to become an unrestricted free agent, he doesn’t need to be a concern at this time for Toronto. Ideally, he re-signs with the team, which would then mean he gets protected. Both Jack Campbell and Michael Hutchinson would then become available in the draft. If Andersen doesn’t return to the Toronto Maple Leafs, they would then protect Campbell and expose Hutchinson.
Whether Andersen is in the mix or not won’t matter. As mentioned, leaving Demott and Holl exposed will set up a debate in Seattle’s camp on which of those two to take. They would certainly look elsewhere to find a capable stopper. The odds of the Leafs losing a defenseman over a goaltender are much better than the team’s overall chances at capturing this year’s Cup.
Next. The Top Toronto Maple Leafs Grinches. dark
Let’s not forget that with a full season to play, anything can change. There could be some big trades, injuries, great and/or awful individual seasons that completely change these plans. At this early juncture, before we learn of any significant changes, you can expect to see a talented player on their way to join Seattle for their inaugural season.