Looking at 2 Potential Toronto Maple Leafs Penalty Kill Approaches

In order for the Toronto Maple Leafs to reach the heights they believe they can, they should look to improve their penalty kill.

During the 2019-20 season, the Toronto Maple Leafs finished with the 21st ranked PK, clipping at a rate of 77.7% – not a good percentage for a team with cup aspirations. If the Leafs want to establish themselves as a perennial cup contender, they must move into the top half of the league on the PK, where the likes of Tampa Bay, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Boston ranked among the top 15 teams (stats; NHL.com).

Now, Toronto did take tremendous steps in improving their PK skills after Sheldon Keefe took over. With Mike Babcock in charge, the Leafs were 27th in PK percentage but improved to 13th under the new head coach’s regime. However, those struggles in the first 23 games of the season contributed to the Leafs  fall in the standings, specifically their inability to finish higher in the Atlantic division.

In a 2020-21 shortened season, the Toronto Maple Leafs cannot afford to struggle out of the gate again and must maintain their stellar numbers under Keefe over the course of the full season.

It is important to remember Dave Hakstol, the assistant who ran the Leafs penalty kill operations, is one of the few remaining members leftover from Babcock’s staff. This says something about how much Leafs  management believes in the former Flyers head coach, his relationship with Keefe now at the helm, and his ability to transform the Leafs penalty kill into a well-oiled machine.

With their sights set on reaching new levels this club has not seen before, let’s look at two approaches Keefe and Hakstol could take to create a dominant penalty kill.

The “Full-Attack” Approach

Unit 1: Alex Kerfoot, Mitch Marner, Jake Muzzin, and Zach Bogosian.

Unit 2: Zach Hyman, Ilya Mikheyev, TJ Brodie, and Justin Holl.

If you need to counterattack a team’s loaded-up first unit powerplay, why not play your two best defensive forwards, alongside your best defensive defensemen and your best penalty-killing defensemen?

Marner and Kerfoot were second and third, respectively, in total expected defense (even-strength plus shorthanded) among all Toronto Maple Leafs forwards in 2019-20 – as for who ranked first, we will touch on him in a bit. Similarly, Jake Muzzin ranked tied for first in the same stat among all Leafs d-men who suited up for the team last season (stats; evolving-hockey.com).

One of three newcomers to the Leafs blueline, Bogosian brings toughness and leadership to a locker room who could use an injection of both. However, the recent Stanley Cup champion brings a specific skillset the Leafs could really use – Bogosian is a phenomenal penalty killer. Take a look at his PK stats from last season.

As for the second foursome, Keefe and Hakstol could look at Mikheyev and Hyman, who ranked second and third in expected shorthanded defense in 2019-20. In Holl, the defensemen who tied Muzzin for the team lead in xDef, the Leafs would have another fantastic penalty killing option on their second unit accompanying their prized defensive acquisition this offseason, TJ Brodie.

Noticeably absent is Pierre Engvall. In 2019-20, Engvall was a beast on the penalty kill for Toronto, finishing with the team lead in total expected defense as well as expected shorthanded defense. However, without a clear path to playing time, he remains off my potential PK plan, but if he does end up suiting up for Toronto, the coaching staff has another weapon they can deploy on their first unit.

The “Balanced” Approach

Unit 1: Zach Hyman, Mitch Marner, Jake Muzzin, and Justin Holl.

Unit 2: Alex Kerfoot, Ilya Mikheyev, TJ Brodie, Zach Bogosian.

Why change what is not broken?

The Hyman, Marner, Muzzin, and Holl foursome will largely resemble Keefe’s first PK unit from 2019-20. The lone player not returning to his position is Cody Ceci, who was let go by the club during the 2020 free agency period.

Marner and Hyman ranked first and third respectively in shorthanded ice-time per game among all forwards last season. Likewise, out of all returning defensemen from the 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs blueline, Muzzin leads in shorthanded ice-time per game from a year ago (stats; NHL.com).

Ceci, who was the only defensemen to rank higher in PK time per game than Muzzin, will not be returning and as such, Keefe could opt to deploy Holl as Muzzin’s PK partner-in-crime, who is also expected to lineup alongside the Leafs unofficial fourth assistant captain at even-strength.

As for the second unit, Keefe may have found a hidden PK gem in the return to play. Getting only 16 seconds of penalty kill time per game during the regular season, the new head coach showed a higher sense of trust in Kerfoot’s PK abilities, giving him 1:42 shorthanded time per game in the five-game series against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Adding in Mikheyev, Brodie, and Bogosian alongside Kerfoot, Hakstol and Keefe may be able to build a foursome who just may be as good as the first unit.

What I Would Do

Converse to the powerplay approach the Leafs should take, the “balanced” penalty kill attack seems more adept at building a well-oiled shorthanded machine.

The first thing a head coach wants to avoid while shorthanded is icing a tired penalty-killing unit. In order to avoid that, dividing your PK into two even halves and giving each unit one minute apiece is the best practice to avoid this problem.

Generally speaking, a tired unit often leads to complications in the defensive zone, a goal against, or even another penalty, resulting in an extended powerplay. With that in mind, it is very important to have a concrete unit ready to go if and when the first foursome is unable to go any longer.

Using this approach, the Leafs would be able to create a dominant PK unit that can mirror their PP abilities to establish this team as a special teams force.

Whichever approach Hakstol and Keefe go with in 2020-21, expect significant improvement from the Babcock era, and more in line with the 47 games to finish off 2019-20.