Looking at 2 Potential Toronto Maple Leafs Powerplay Approaches

In 2019-20, the Toronto Maple Leafs powerplay struggled through some inconsistency.

From November 21st, 2019 until the end of the calendar year, Sheldon Keefe transformed the Toronto Maple Leafs powerplay into an absolute weapon. Clicking at a 36.8 percent rate, number one in the league, during the new head coach’s first 18 games, it was an extremely tough task to try and stop Toronto on the man advantage (stats; NHL.com).

However, the fire seemed to flame out, with the Leafs powerplay ranking 14th in the league from January 1st until the end of the season. Dropping to a rate of 21.7 percent through their next 29 games, assistant coach Paul McFarland was often left struggling to find answers to fix the Leafs powerplay woes.

In 2020-21, Manny Malhotra, one of two new additions to Sheldon Keefe’s bench staff, is going to look to increase productivity from the area where the Leafs should be lethal in. After all, a foursome of John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander should be virtually unstoppable.

This offseason has brought a lot of change to various parts of the Toronto Maple Leafs roster, and with the team looking to find a little more regularity from their man-advantage group, let’s look at two approaches the Leafs could take to create a dominant powerplay.

The Load Up One Unit Approach

Unit 1: William Nylander (net front), John Tavares (bumper), Mitch Marner (left dots), Auston Matthews (right dots), Morgan Rielly (quarterback).

Unit 2: Wayne Simmonds (net front), Jason Spezza (bumper), Joe Thornton (left dots), Nick Robertson (right dots), Mikko Lehtonen (quarterback).

The main idea behind a loaded-up attack is getting your four best forwards as well as your best offensive defensemen on the ice for the majority of the powerplay will lead to a higher chance of capitalizing on the other team’s error.

With this structure, the Toronto Maple Leafs would be coming in with largely the same initial fivesome as they did in 2019-20. The one key difference in this new group is Rielly taking back his #1 powerplay quarterback position.

Tyson Barrie manned that spot for most of last season,  however, in 2018-19, Rielly’s career season, his success on the Leafs powerplay contributed to his production.  Finishing with 21 man-advantage points, 8th in the league, Rielly proved to be one of the most effective quarterback options in the entire NHL.

The idea behind loading up one unit is, with Keefe in charge, he might be able to unlock a new level of this Leafs powerplay we have never seen before. The former Marlies head coach has shown a greater willingness to give his stars a little more rope. With Babcock, he was more reluctant to let his stars stay out there for an extended period. Matthews, from 2016-17 until 2018-19, ranked 108th in total powerplay time on ice, averaging 2:13 per game.

In Keefe’s 47 games as the man in charge in 2019-20, Matthews’ PP time on ice per game jumped all the way up to 3:06. If this can continue over the course of a full season, Malhotra may be the Leafs’ powerplay saviour.

The Balanced Approach

Group 1: William Nylander (net front), Jason Spezza (bumper), Joe Thornton (left dots), Auston Matthews (right dots), Morgan Rielly (quarterback).

Group 2: Wayne Simmonds (net front), John Tavares (bumper), Mitch Marner (left dots), Nick Robertson (right dots), Mikko Lehtonen (quarterback).

The premise behind using a balanced approach is essentially the opposing coaches would have to make the difficult decision of when to use their most effective penalty killers. For example, if Keefe and Malhotra elect to start their powerplay with the Matthews-led group and the opposition counters with their best PK unit, by the time the Tavares-led group enters the play, they will be playing against a weaker foursome.

There is even the potential of the Tavares unit switching onto the ice while the Leafs have possession in the offensive zone to get a fresh group out against a tired penalty-killing unit.

This approach resembles what fans saw during the early years of the Matthews-era. In 2017-18, Babcock’s first unit featured the trio of James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, and Mitch Marner, with Nazem Kadri, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander dominating the second unit. This lead Toronto to finish with the second-highest powerplay percentage at 25 percent.

It is also important to remember, after all the offseason moves Kyle Dubas has made, the Toronto Maple Leafs are better suited than they were last season to run the balanced approach. Before, the entire first powerplay unit would run through Marner, without another skillset occupying the same role on PP2.  Now, Thornton is able to assume some of those PP-orchestrating duties on whichever unit Marner is not on.

What I Would Do?

There seems to be a higher likelihood of success if Keefe and Malhotra opt for the load up one unit approach. Building a unit capable of stopping Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander is quite a tall order.

Even if this group is not able to put one past the goalie, they will have severely tired out the opponents’ best penalty killers, leaving Simmonds, Spezza, Thornton, Robertson, and Lehtonen to feast.

During Simmonds’ tenure as a Flyer, from 2011-12 to 2016-17, the Scarborough native ranked second in powerplay goals, behind only the best goal scorer of this generation, Alex Ovechkin. Similarly, Thornton is the active leader in powerplay assists and 15th all-time, with his fellow teammate, Jason Spezza, ranking 8th among active NHLers.

Robertson might just have the second-best shot on this Toronto Maple Leafs roster. Finishing 9th in OHL powerplay goals a year ago, Robertson ended five back of the league leader in 16 fewer games. As the quarterback, Lehtonen is the reigning KHL defensemen of the year, registering 49 points in 60 games last season, and is widely considered the best defensemen outside the NHL (stats; eliteprospects).

If the Toronto Maple Leafs coaching staff elect to use this approach, they will have the benefit of creating a dangerous first unit, who can outduel any team’s penalty-killing foursome, as well establish a very effective second unit, capable of creating offense themselves.

Furthermore, the biggest downside to a balanced attack is you would want your best goal scorer, in this case Matthews, on the ice for as long as possible. Matthews could be on the ice for 60 to 80 seconds of the possible 120, leaving potentially only 40 seconds for Marner and Tavares to work with. This does not seem ideal in maximizing your stars’ value.

Regardless of the structure Keefe and Malhotra opt for on their powerplay, I would expect a revamped unit and one that is looking to dominate opposing PK foursomes in 2020-21.