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Toronto Maple Leafs Record With Hypothetical Adjustments

By James Tanner

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 11: Zach Hyman #11 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates a goal against the Arizona Coyotes during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on February 11, 2020 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Coyotes 3-2 in overtime. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 11: Zach Hyman #11 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates a goal against the Arizona Coyotes during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on February 11, 2020 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Coyotes 3-2 in overtime. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a position to challenge for the Stanley Cup when and if it is awarded this season.

One of the reasons that I’m so high on the Toronto Maple Leafs this season (and let’s face it, every season) is because they have stayed true to their vision of an offense-first team built around a core of superstars, but now they’ve supplemented it with an incredible amount of depth, leadership and variety of skills.

The addition of Joe Thornton is fantastic, and giving Morgan Rielly the first full-time partner he can call a peer is incredible.  But for me the biggest improvement is going to come from a trio of league-minimum rookies: Rasmus Sandin, Mikko Lehtonen and Nick Robertson.

The fact that a team with 3 x U-25 superstars is potentially adding three impact rookies whose salaries barely impact the salary cap is what is going to put them over the top.

But what I really want to point out is just how good the Leafs are already. If you’re a regular reader, you may find this relative, but if you’re not you’ll find it quite surprising.

The Toronto Maple Leafs Hypothetical Record

Consider what the Leafs record could have been last year while taking in mind the following information.

  • The Leafs finished 8th overall under Sheldon Keefe, despite the fact that they played about half of those games without their best defenseman.
  • For about half of the games where Morgan Rielly was out, Jake Muzzin was also out.  Fans celebrate when a team adds a fourth liner, so I think playing 12 or so games without your two best defensemen is a big deal.
  • In games where Michael Hutchinson didn’t start, the Leafs were on a 105 point pace, a total that would usually see a team finish 2nd or 3rd overall in an 82 game season.
  • The On-Ice Team Statistics of the Toronto Maple Leafs were on par with Tampa and Las Vegas, better than Boston. The 24th best goaltending in the NHL sunk them.
  • Morgan Rielly played injured for most of the year.
  • For most of the season John Tavares had an injured hand and couldn’t shoot the puck like he normally can.
  • The team had to learn a completely new system on the fly.
  • There was a game where Nylander was sick, Andersen didn’t start and the Leafs had six regulars out of the lineup.
  • They never dressed their optimal lineup a single time.

It’s funny, everyone is so quick to put down the Leafs, but the facts are that PDO (combined shooting and save percentage) dictate how we feel about teams.  The top three in the NHL this year were Colorado, Tampa and Boston. I know from getting ratioed that NHL fans don’t think the Leafs are on the same level as those teams.

Grading Every Off-Season Move of the Leafs. dark. Next

But the Leafs finished 19th in PDO (naturalstattrick.com) and that is what makes all the difference in perception.  Everything but the final results say the Leafs should be one of the two or three best teams in the NHL.   You can’t change the results, but you should be aware that it’s not results, but the details, that best predict the future.

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