Comparing the Toronto Maple Leafs to Other NHL Teams

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a much better roster than you’d think from following the NHL media.

In my opinion, the Toronto Maple Leafs might have the best roster in the NHL.  They were close last year, and they added a significant piece in TJ Brodie without subtracting anything significant. They also added Joe Thornton.  Their biggest losses were Johnsson and Kapanen, but neither contributed much last season at all, and both player’s contributions should easily be replicated by whichever wingers win their jobs in camp.

There is also the fact that Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner are all still yet to peak. These players will still get better, and they are already among the league’s best players.

I think the additions, and internal improvement go a long way in making up the difference between the Leafs and the NHL’s best current team, the Tampa Bay Lightning. But since we are a Leafs-centric web site, it is perhaps possible that we are not being fully objective here.

But then again, perhaps the Leafs seem so underrated because all major NHL Media outlets are centred in Toronto and so they go out of their way to avoid seeming biased in the favor of the  Leafs.  Or perhaps most media members are not interested in challenging the most resent results, which obviously would lead to the Leafs being rated lowly.

It could even be that I am wrong, and the Leafs do not actually have one of the NHL’s best rosters.  However, if that is the case, then I think its weird that the Leafs were able to finish 8th overall under Sheldon Keefe last year, despite getting terrible goaltending and having their best defenseman miss half of these games, while their second best defenseman was out as well for a good portion of them.

It is also worth noting that the Leafs were one of the NHL’s best teams in games where Michael Hutchinson didn’t start last season, and that their loss in the playoffs was one of the flukiest things to happen in the history of the NHL.

While last season was super disappointing for Toronto, keep in mind that with even a league average back-up goalie and Frederik Andersen being as good as he was in any other season of his career, and the Leafs probably still have Mike Babcock as their coach after a top five regular season finish.

But I digress.

We want to know where the Toronto Maple Leafs rank in terms of the rest of the NHL, so let us look into it.

On the Wing

In the NHL, high-end skill is the biggest factor in who wins (other than luck, since it is, after all, a professional league with a salary cap where the differences between players are marginal).

The Toronto Maple Leafs wingers are nearly as well s tocked on the wing as they are at centre. Their strength comes from Mitch Marner and William Nylander, both of whom are top ten NHL wingers.  In my analysis, an “elite” player is anyone who falls in the 10 to 15% of players who actually move the needle in terms of game impact.  Both Marner and Nylander are among the best of the best, both in the top 2 to 5% of wingers.

The Leafs depth is also solid at this position and their depth isn’t impacted at all by their commitment to the studs and duds salary cap approach.

On left wing the Leafs have Zach Hyman, Ilya Mikheyev, Nick Robertson and Wayne Simmonds.  They could also throw in Alex Barabanov or Jimmy Vessey for depth, and they have an elite option in William Nylander if in fact his move to left wing turns out to be permanent.

Last year playing top six minutes on left wing, Alex Kerfoot provided elite defense and scored at the same 5v5 rate as John Tavares.  With multiple potentially elite players and option to use Kerfoot or Nylander on the left side, it’s an embarrassment of riches.

On Right wing, the Leafs have Marner, possibly Nylander, and a bunch of solid depth options, the same as listed above.  Overall its an embarrassment of riches.

Two elite players, and two (Hyman and Kerfoot) who have a history of occasionally crossing the threshold into elite territory.  Barabanov, if he’s as good as advertised, and Mikheyev give the Leafs a ton of depth up front.

Nick Robertson, if he makes the team likely makes it because he’s an elite goal scorer.  If he’s any good in the NHL as a rookie the entire team is elevated by the addition of another weapon.

The Leafs third and fourth lines have so many options that they could dress a fifth line (say Vessey-Engvall-Simmonds) that would be as good as most of the NHL’s third line.

I think its safe to say with two high-end superstars, at least four players who could potentially move the needle (Robertson, Hyman, Mikheyev, Kerfoot) that the leafs are among the best in the NHL at forward.

Looking at their rosters, only Tampa is anywhere close in terms of depth, and their team is up in the air still due to salary cap concerns.  Other than Tampa, I dont’ think anyone can match up with anything approximating the Matthews/Tavares/Nylander/Marner.  The mix of depth and high-end talent makes the Toronto Maple Leafs among the best in the NHL at forward.

They are definitely the best at centre, and at worst, top five on the wing, and top three for depth.  Even if you prefer Las Vegas and Tampa, it would be ridiculous to put Toronto any lower than third.

Toronto Maple Leafs Blue Line

Funny to say this after all the ink spilled by people deriding the Leafs blue line, but its now the deepest in the NHL.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have eleven NHL quality defensemen.  Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin, Holl, Dermott, Sandin, Liljegren, Rosen, Bogosian, Lehtonen and Marincin.

I went through every team in the league and no one else has anything close to that. In fact, almost every team is dressing a player on their third pairing who would be highly unlikely to make the Leafs, given the competition.

Yes, I understand that Lehtonen has never played in the NHL, but you don’t rip up the KHL like he’s doing if you can’t at least cut it as a replacement NHL player.  Sandin and Liljegren are rookies, but neither would be the worst player in the NHL if they played regularly. Marincin is – despite his unpopularity – a player who is constantly effective when he plays.  The depth is great, but what about the high-end talent?

Morgan Rielly has been better than Victor Hedman for two of the last three year (by WAR) and doesn’t seem to get his due as a legitimate #1 stud defenseman.  Despite an injury filled year last season, he  is just that.

TJ Brodie was worth just under 2 Wins last year, while Jake Muzzin was worth just over 2.  This makes them better than 87% of defensemen, and classifies both players as elite. While the Leafs have three great options for their top pairing, I think all three of Muzzin, Brodie and Rielly are underrated to some degree, lessoning the love people have for this blueline.

Justin Holl, while he may not do it again, played some of the NHL’s toughest minutes last year while posting better statistics than Colton  Parayko.

Travis Dermott has been one of the NHL’s best third-pairing players over the last couple of years.  Rasmus Sandin projects to be a star player, possible a #1, definitely a top pairing player on a good team.

It’s clear when you look into the Leafs blueline that its now one of the best in the NHL.  Few teams can match their top three, and no one can touch their depth.

Analyzing the Toronto Maple Leafs

If we go by total number of elite players, which is to say players that tend to have a significant impact on the results of games,  the Toronto Maple Leafs, with seven, are the best team in the NHL.   Of those players, the three most important ones are all still improving and are yet to peak.

If we go by depth, the Leafs are the best team in the NHL.

lf we go by recent results, they are not good at all.

So how does all this fit together? Do players decline? Improve? What is the chemistry like? There are too many unknown factors to call the Leafs the best team, but they’re certainly up there.

Last year the Avalanche led the NHL in PDO, and suddenly their everyone’s favorite, but a player by player comparison shows that the Leafs are a decidedly better team.

The Leafs goaltending is a bit of a question mark because Freddie Andersen is coming off his worst season ever, but the additions of Jack Campbell and Aaron Dell should lighten his load considerably.

Goaltending is a wildcard anyways.  The Islanders are nearly worse than the Senators, but they hid that fact convincingly by getting high quality goaltending.  The Leafs were the opposite – they put up team stats on par with Tampa (once Babcock was fired) and were destroyed by their lousy goaltending.

I trust Andersen to bounce back, but like injuries and shooting-percentage benders, goaltending is largely out of anyone’s control.

Just based on the forwards and defense, I think the Toronto Maple Leafs are, objectively speaking, a top team in the NHL.  Of course there is a degree of subjectivity, and I also know that having failed to thus far win a playoff round, many people aren’t interested in anything else.

That’s fine.

The Leafs should be classified with Boston, Tampa, Las Vegas, Carolina and possibly Colorado as a group of teams that are a cut above the rest of the league.

If there is, as rumored, an All Canadian Division, it will hardly be fair.  The Oilers have the elite talent to compete, but every other Canadian team is actively bad.  Winnipeg isn’t even a playoff team if their goalie regresses at all (which is a given), and Montreal is OK at best.

The Leafs took Calgary’s best defenseman (by last year’s stats, at least) and the Canucks had a brutal offseason. Ottawa just hopes they finally win a draft lottery.

In the end, I realize that until the Toronto Maple Leafs win something, people will doubt their roster.  But if you just focus on the roster as it appears on paper, the Leafs are among the best in the NHL.

Maybe the best.