The Likely Toronto Maple Leafs Defensive Core Deployment

Here’s what the Toronto Maple Leafs defense will look like.

With all the new faces that will be joining the Toronto Maple Leafs blueline this upcoming season, one has to wonder how they’re going to deploy their pairings and what additional moves could happen to either further bolster the back end, or at least clear up the apparent logjam that has formed. And at the rate Kyle Dubas is pulling off moves, I best get these ideas out there now before something else changes, so let’s dive right in.

Here are the two major changes so far: Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci are out after leaving the team as free agents. In their places, the Toronto Maple Leafs have signed TJ Brodie and Zach Bogosian. The sheer upgrade in talent these two moves alone has provided is immeasurable, and the value of never having to watch Ceci cluelessly try to defend a rush ever again as a Leaf is priceless.

What other moves could be made before the lineup is set in stone? Honestly, out of the players that could fit Toronto’s current cap situation in the remaining free-agent crop, none of them seem to be anything more than replacement-level players at best. So in the absence of another depth signing, the only other move that might be made to further improve the defense are a couple of trades.

Toronto Maple Leafs 2021 Blue Line

Despite evidence that Justin Holl is a perfectly fine NHL defender, I still think he’ll be moved for a mid-round draft pick or prospect to clear some additional cap space. The move would fit with Kyle Dubas’ M.O. of moving out mid-range salary players (Johnsson, Kapanen) unless they’re set to play a significant role, as well as his objective of having some flexibility under the salary cap during this upcoming season, so he could potentially make moves to improve the team without detracting from its quality.

Holl would likely play top-4 minutes (paired with Muzzin) if he does not get moved, but in my evaluations of him, I find that he struggles unless he’s playing with Muzzin. It’s my belief that Muzzin elevates his partner’s play, so that is possibly what we’re seeing when we see Holl playing above his level in a role he would otherwise be unable to fill. We saw similar results when Muzzin was paired with Nikita Zaitsev during the 2019 playoffs, during which Zaitsev looked better than most of his entire tenure as a Leaf.

Up until the Bogosian signing, this paragraph was where I was going to reiterate that it’d be a great move to acquire Mackenzie Weegar‘s RFA rights (say, for Pierre Engvall) and pair him with Jake Muzzin. It could still happen, but it seems unlikely right now. Using the players we have now, where do they play?

My best estimation of the pairings is as follows:

Rielly-Brodie

Muzzin-Dermott

Third pairing a platoon of Sandin-Lehtonen-Bogosian

The Rielly-Brodie pairing is a no-brainer. TJ Brodie instantly becomes Morgan Rielly’s greatest defense partner in his entire NHL career. A defense-first guy who doesn’t need to be babysat like many of the players Rielly has been expected to play with since the departure of Ron Hainsey.

Dermott will be playing on the right side according to Kyle Dubas during one of his media availabilities, so why not take advantage of Muzzin’s uncanny ability to elevate his partner’s play and set him up with the young Dermott, who still has a high potential to be a true top-4 defenseman?

The Toronto Maple Leafs can’t waste any more of Rasmus Sandin’s  entry-level contract, the clock is ticking on it now whether he’s an active member of the roster or not, so they might as well play him and not stunt his development by sticking him in the press box or facing inferior competition in the AHL. Zach Bogosian, fresh off a Stanley Cup win as a depth member of the Tampa Bay Lightning, can be a solid #6 or 7 who rotates in and out of the lineup to bolster them when they need an added dose of toughness.

Mikko Lehtonen is the dark horse of the Leafs blue line. Currently playing in the KHL, Lehtonen leads that league in points by a defenseman with 13 points in 9 games. His defensive numbers are fine, and he’s versatile in the sense that he can play both sides. However, he’s never played a game on North American ice, so he may take a while to get used to the pace of the NHL, but if he can live up to his reputation, he’ll be yet another weapon for the Leafs new-look blue line.

As an aside to end this off, I’m extremely happy that people are finally coming to realize something  that I’ve been preaching for a while, that a defenseman’s handedness in the NHL does not matter, and the Toronto Maple Leafs have a much better defense now than they’ve had in several years.