3 Reasons to Be Pessimistic About the Toronto Maple Leafs
It’s hard to get excited about the future of the Toronto Maple Leafs knowing you’re going to get your heart broken.
The Toronto Maple Leafs had their worst season since the Peter Horachek era. Even though the Leafs finished last in the NHL one year after that, the team at least did it with a purpose. The Leafs were tanking and executed that plan perfectly, as it led to the acquisition of Auston Matthews. Since his arrival, the team made the playoffs every year, until this season.
It’s hard to remember that the Leafs actually missed the playoffs. When I think back on the season, I keep forgetting that the Columbus match-up was a qualifying series and not an actual playoff series. It’s so disappointing realizing that the Leafs are in the same category as the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators this year.
When you look back in the record books, you’re not going to see an asterisk or anything that indicates this season stopped short and restarted in a Hub City. Instead, all you’re going to see beside the Toronto Maple Leafs 2019-20 season on hockeyDB is ‘Out of Playoffs.’
I know it was a weird season, but I can’t help but feel scared toward the future. Hopefully Leafs management can change those thoughts soon, but here are three reasons why you should be pessimistic about the Toronto Maple Leafs.
#3. Defensive Issues
Depending on what happens during Free Agency, the Leafs defense will look something like this next season:
- Morgan Rielly
- Stud
- Jake Muzzin
- Top-Pair
- Travis Dermott
- Bottom-pair with potential.
- Rasmus Sandin
- Too young and raw, but potential to become a top pairing player.
- Mikko Lehtonen
- Justin Holl
- Top Four right-handed defenseman potentially playing too high up.
- Martin Marincin
- AHL defenseman
- Calle Rosen
- High-end AHL defenseman, OK 7th defenseman
The Leafs defense is a huge issue. You can say that the team will be OK if Dermott and Sandin take a step, while Lehtonen fits in well in the NHL, but that’s a lot to ask for. Also, in this scenario, we’re assuming everyone stays healthy but that never happens. If either Muzzin or Rielly get hurt, the team will fall apart defensively.
Not only does the defense look rough on paper, but the team finished with it’s worst Goals Against Average (GAA) since finishing last in the NHL in 2015-16. The Leafs were 27th in GAA this year. Only the Florida Panthers, New Jersey Devils, Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings were worse than them.
That’s unacceptable!
#2. Marlies Team is Weak
One of the main reasons the Toronto Maple Leafs have made the playoffs in three of the past four seasons is because of their development system. However, that’s completely changed.
Thanks to Kyle Dubas and company, the Marlies have been one of the best AHL teams for the past decade, even winning a Calder Cup in 2018. Within that championship team, Travis Dermott, Andreas Johnsson, Calle Rosen, Justin Holl, Pierre Engvall and Frederik Gauthier are all current Maple Leafs that were on that roster.
However, the well has now run dry.
The only players left from that team (Only 2 years ago!) that have a chance to compete for a daily NHL role are Adam Brooks and Timothy Liljegren. Both of those players could turn into everyday NHLers. But for now, they’re unfortunately not going to make a huge difference on your team winning a Stanley Cup.
The Marlies best players this year were two AHL veterans (Kenny Agostino, Nic Petan) that aren’t going to make an impact on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster. The team unfortunately doesn’t have a plethora of talent like they did on their championship-run, so they’ll have to fix that soon.
It’s so important to have organizational depth, so in order for the Leafs to get better and fill in holes when players get injured, they’ll have to do a better job improving the Marlies roster.
#1. Can’t Win the Stanley Cup With Huge Contracts
The Toronto Maple Leafs have tied up almost half their salary cap in the contracts of four players, leaving precious little money for the rest of the roster. Now its possible that this is in fact the correct way to do things, but the Leafs are reinventing the wheel here and it hasn’t worked out yet.
There’s no player that makes $10 million or more from the four teams left in the playoffs (Tampa Bay Lightning, Dallas Stars, New York Islanders, Vegas Golden Knights). The highest paid players are Tyler Seguin ($9.8M), Jamie Benn ($9.5M), Mark Stone ($9.5M), Nikita Kucherov ($9.5M) and Steven Stamkos ($8.5M). Of course, those are all veteran players on contracts that were not signed too recently. (Some of these teams also do not pay state taxes, thus allowing them to pay their players more money with less of a cap hit than other teams).
Compared to John Tavares ($11M) and Mitch Marner ($10.93M) there’s no reason that both of those Leafs should make between $1-2M more than anyone of those players. Then again, Marner was being paid for his potential and Tavares was an unrestricted free agent, which none of those players were.
Stamkos and Benn signed their contracts back in 2016 so I understand the discount, but Seguin, Stone and Kucherov all signed in either 2018 or 2019. There’s no reason that Marner and Tavares should be making so much more than these guys.
You probably realize by now that I’m not talking about the highest paid contract on the Leafs: Auston Matthews ($11.634M). Well, there’s a reason for that.
Matthews is one of the best players in the league and deserves every penny he gets because he’s going to win a Hart Trophy or Maurice “Rocket” Richard sooner than later.
dark. Next. 5 Reasons to Remain Optimistic
It’s incredibly disappointing to look around the NHL and see that the more balanced line-ups win every single season. Of course, you should keep in mind that there are no good examples of anyone winning with the Leafs philosophy because no one has tried it.
Time will tell, but I am losing my patience.