Toronto Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets: Special Teams Analysis
Blue Jackets Powerplay
The Blue Jackets powerplay is certainly not something that the team flourishes upon. Instead, like 5v5 offense, PP offense is a sizeable weakness for them.
They are 28th in GF/60 in the NHL with 5.45G/60.
28th in the league in goals for on the powerplay is something you rarely find in the playoffs with no other team of the 24 in the return to play finding themselves below the Blue Jackets in this category.
"CBJ PP"
As you can tell with the net at the top, the Blue Jackets seem to have a really tough time generating any shots from the slot (diamond-shaped purple area). This is exactly why they have such a weak powerplay.
If they are unable to get any slot shots it’s clear that they will have a weaker powerplay given most of their shots would be coming from lower-danger areas of the ice.
With the loss of two key powerplay players in Duchene and Panarin from last season the Blue Jackets have unsurprisingly struggled mightily.
With no hope of getting any worse on the PP, the Blue Jackets coaching staff have recently been trying out the idea of two defensemen on the unit.
Seth Jones and Zach Werenski are very talented defensemen but if the Blue Jackets have sprung to this idea it’s obvious that they are struggling.
Having two defensemen on the powerplay has proven time and time again that it is far less effective than the 4-forward method.
Even if Werenski and Jones are extraordinarily talented, this doesn’t mean it will be an effective strategy.
Last season (2018-2019) the Nashville Predators played two extremely talented defensemen on the powerplay in Roman Josi (Norris nominee) and P.K. Subban. As a result, the Predators had the absolute worst powerplay in the league. Oddly enough they were also the only team to utilize two defensemen on the powerplay.
There has been extensive evidence that 4 forwards and 1 defenseman is the way to go on the powerplay. The teams that play 4 forwards over 3 forwards have had a larger success rate which is exactly why today almost every team has adopted the 4 forward powerplay strategy.
Over a large 6-year sample in 2015, the 4 forward powerplays had a goal differential of 6.1 while the 3 forward powerplays only had a goal differential of 4.9 this is a large difference and the reason why coaches have fully endorsed the idea of a 4-forward powerplay.
My point is, I hope the Columbus coaching staff run out both defensemen on the powerplay because I think it would help the Leafs more than the Blue Jackets if they were to do so.
Even if it would be hard for the Blue Jackets powerplay to get any worse I don’t see how having two defensemen could make it any better.
Another reason I believe the Blue Jackets powerplay seems to founder is that they use Jones and Werenski as shooters instead of playmakers.
Generally, it is ideal that the forwards should be shooting rather than the defensemen. Take Montreal for example, who use Weber as their primary shooter, and as a result, their powerplay is awful.
Forwards always have higher shooting percentages than defensemen, and this is no exception.
Although even without both defensemen on the powerplay from watching clips of the Blue Jackets I have found that there is still almost a 3 forward 2 defensemen attitude.
When the Blue Jackets are in the offensive zone on the man advantage they seem to be afraid to give the puck away to a point where they are almost using their even-strength and penalty-kill strategy of prioritizing defense over offense.
If you are worried about defense instead of scoring on the powerplay, it isn’t surprising that the team has a poor powerplay.
It’s almost similar to shooting a basketball and thinking about missing, or starting a test and thinking about failing. The odds will be against you if you have this sort of attitude. Thus, the Blue Jackets have a bad powerplay.
Most of the Blue Jackets’ powerplay goals will likely look something like this where both teams get clustered up from the puck movement.
The Blue Jackets have a poor powerplay and I expect this to be something the Leafs are able to feed off from if their PK can handle the Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets will likely be more effective on the PP if the Leafs PK maintains the below league average standards they had in the regular season.