Predicting the Toronto Maple Leafs Path Through the Qualifying Round

The Toronto Maple Leafs begin their quest for the Stanley Cup on August 2, 2020. First up, they’ll win their play-in series and move on to the next round.

Sunday, August 2 can’t come soon enough for the Toronto Maple Leafs and their fanbase, as the team continues to prepare for the start of the post-season.

Joining the pool of 16 other teams battling it out through the Qualifying Round, the 8th seed Maple Leafs will faceoff against the 9th place Columbus Blue Jackets. The winner then enters the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

At first glance, comparing the seasons of these organizations, this would seem like a fairly balanced series. Both teams earned similar records and achieved 81 points each, respectively.

Toronto scored 238 times, while Columbus only tallied 180. However, the Blue Jackets let in 187 goals against all year as compared to the 227 the Maple Leafs allowed.

One franchise clearly more prolific at putting pucks in their opponent’s net, while the other was obviously much more effective at keeping them out of their own.

For the type of talent this Toronto team has throughout its lineup, and even after achieving some successes along the way, it would be fair to say they had a disappointing 2019-20 season.

However, the post-season provides them with an opportunity to write a different ending to this story.

Relaxed, Rested, Ready

With the NHL’s pause in mid-March, getting back to gameplay will essentially create a brand new opportunity for everyone involved. For those in a playoff position, the regular season is irrelevant now.

Time off meant injuries could heal and energies could rejuvenate. It also gave those most dedicated the chance to not only maintain their fitness levels, but bring them to new heights.

Certainly, it’s fair to assume that not every athlete spent their time off partaking in the same routines. And, soon enough, we’ll see who put themselves in the best possible position to succeed when things resume.

If clips from Toronto’s training camps are any indication of what to expect of them in real game action, then I’d say they’re where they want to be heading into this tournament.

https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1286460817798504449?s=20

Toronto clearly has scoring talent scattered throughout their lineup, which is something Columbus will need to worry about. After being part of the NHL’s goal-scoring race all season, Auston Matthews showed no signs of slowing that pace down.

That said, the Blue Jackets showcased a more effective shutdown game throughout the year and they have some marque players re-joining their roster which will enhance their efforts.

With all that the NHL’s Return to Play Plan entails, this would be the toughest path the Toronto Maple Leafs have ever had to face to win the Stanley Cup. But before considering the ultimate prize, they have to get through Columbus first.

Here’s my game by game breakdown of Toronto’s Qualifying Round.

Game 1

Expect to see Toronto come out flying to start this series. Not only do they recognize that they fell short of expectations this season, but this is a prime opportunity to turn over a new leaf from their recent playoff struggles.

Action will pick up immediately following puck drop and there will be little to no time for these teams to get re-acquainted and ease into the round. It will be a more physical series than expected.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will get on the board early and control the pace of the game throughout it, dominating with their speed and creativity. They’ll lead the whole way through.

Columbus will eventually score, but at a point in the game that it simply won’t be enough to impact the outcome of this one.

Although slow starts have become the expectation of Frederik Andersen in the past, his peak capabilities will be on display from the get-go and he’ll shatter that pattern.

Familiar names like Mitch Marner and William Nylander will do what they do best to set the tone, while newer faces like Nick Robertson quickly make themselves known throughout the opposing dressing room.

Toronto’s stars will shine brighter to start this series and they’ll take Game 1 by a score of 5-1.

Game 2

John Tortorella will not let his Blue Jackets be embarrassed. They’ll come out far more prepared for Toronto’s onslaught and force themselves into a position to more easily reciprocate.

The Maple Leafs will stick to their gameplan of quick breakouts and constant scoring attempts, it just won’t be as effective as it was in Game 1. After adjusting their approach, Columbus will generate a more successful shutdown.

In turn, the Blue Jackets will give themselves greater opportunity to make their chances count and earn the timely goals they failed to score in the first meeting.

Some offensive sparks will still fly throughout this game for Toronto, as Matthews will continue his tear, but their defense fails this initial test.

Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin will lead the team in ice time, putting forth solid efforts and doing their part. Unfortunately, a less experienced Travis Dermott will have a game he’d like to forget.

It won’t be on Andersen, who will put in a quality night’s work and avoid getting pulled.

Frustration and missed chances will be the storyline for the Maple Leafs, with Columbus winning this one 4-2.

Game 4

For the third time in as many years, Toronto will enter a series-deciding game with the chance to move on and straight into the next round. Unlike the previous two attempts, they aren’t going to let this one slip away.

It’s not to say that Columbus will make it easy for them. This is sure to be the closest match of this series, as both teams will have it all on the line.

One needs a win to move on and the other is done for the year with a loss.

Toronto will see more of the shutdown style that Columbus can effectively deploy, with the Blue Jackets straight to relying on their defensive approach from the start.

As Columbus focuses more on keeping pucks out of their net and less on getting them towards Toronto’s, the Maple Leafs will take advantage of the few missteps the Blue Jackets award them.

While producers like Marner, Nylander, Mathews, and Tavares make the plays expected of them to create chances, this will prove to be a defining game for Toronto’s defense.

It won’t just be Rielly leading the way, as Cody Ceci will find some redemption from a less than stellar season and be a major influence in contributing to closing the door to those that try to bypass him.

And Andersen will finally get the type of support he deserves to close out a series.

After a back and forth battle, with highlight-reel saves at both ends of the ice all game, the Maple Leafs will take it down by a score of 2-1 and win the best-of-5 series.

There’s no doubt that Columbus should not be taken lightly. Toronto is just simply a more powerful team. Couple that with their drive for post-season progress and it becomes clear that this is theirs to lose.

If the Maple Leafs play like they’re expected to, then this round will be done before the Blue Jackets ever have a chance to really get into it.

With hockey back, discussions and debates are bound to follow. It makes being a fan that much more fun.