Why Toronto Maple Leafs Fans Should Be Cheering For Tampa
Currently, the Toronto Maple Leafs most likely first-round opponent is the Tampa Bay Lightning, pegged at 38% per Micah Blake McCurdy’s model.
Here, we will address why most of the people who would rather play Boston over Tampa Bay are egregiously wrong in their assessment of Tampa Bay, why Tampa is the outright most dominant team in the NHL and why the Toronto Maple Leafs should not be in favor of playing the lightning in the first round.
First off, I would like to point out that the Lightning did start off slow in terms of being in the standings but they appeared worse for some key reasons which we will cover. But since the slow start in terms of standings points, they are 22-2-1 on an absolute tear, back to the team before the playoffs last season.
It is also important to note that many will outright admit that the Lightning is complete chokers and will never win anything, the Lightning literally lost to the Blue Jackets in one week of hockey from April 10, 2019, to April 16, 2019.
When we have more than an 82 game sample of this team showing they are elite, I fail to see the rationale in discounting the 82+ games in place of one week’s worth of hockey.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Lightning
Think about it this way, this past December and January, Frederik Andersen has struggled mightily, posting a SV% of under 900% which is not the usual quality for Andersen. Most fans were optimistic that he will come back from this slump given his past success and consistency, and so far, that has been the case.
This situation can be similar to the situation with Tampa Bay in the playoffs, it is always better to value the larger sample, this is a fact in all aspects of life.
Back to the few reasons why Tampa had struggled out of the gate until they started their dominant run almost at the same time the Leafs began their very own.
The most obvious reason the team struggled at the beginning of the season was Andrei Vasilevskiy was absolutely atrocious, probably worse than Michael Hutchinson was for the Leafs. We all know the past Vezina trophy winner is not as bad as he started the season out to be, and he has proved that by climbing to above average on the season.
The second reason the team struggled was due to them having the toughest schedule at the time according to ESPN’s strength of schedule.
With all this said, the team did lose games but was still above .500 and their underlying predictive metrics noted that they were still playing very well. Some of the Lightning players even claimed that some adversity can be beneficial for their inner stability as a team.
Catching me off-guard while writing this piece, Tampa Bay decided they wanted to get even better than they already are and traded for 28-year-old Blake Coleman who is such a fantastic player in his own right. I say with confidence that Coleman is a first-line level forward on a great value cap hit. You can read articles on Coleman here.
(We have had several pieces at EditorInLeaf on Coleman as a trade target for good reason)
Moving on, for further analysis, let’s breakdown Tampa Bay’s overall offensive and defensive game individually to get a better look at how they stack up against the rest of the league.
The Offense. dark. Next
Tampa Bay’s Offense
Tampa Bay is the only team in the league that has an offense that can legitimately compete with the Leafs star-powered offense. With names such as Nikita Kurerov, Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Yanni Gourde and the list goes on…
In fact, there is only one forward on the lightning that has a negative impact on offense is remarkable for a team to have. For context, an average offensive team such as Calgary finds themselves with over half of their 13 most used forwards having negative impacts offensively.
In terms of the player’s offensive ability on the backend with the likes of Shattenkirk, Hedman, and Sergachev Tampa is no slouch.
In terms of relative to the rest of the league, Tampa finds itself second in GF/60 and xGF/60 at 5v5. While their powerplay which started slowly is now up to 4th in the league with 9.12G/60. Here is a visual for their offense at 5v5 compared to league average;
View post on imgur.com
Chart from Micah Blake McCurdy’s Hockeyviz
Based on this chart, Tampa bay is 8% above the league average on offense at 5v5 which is in fact 3% lower than the Leafs 11% for good measure. The level that Tampa is able to create offense is remarkable, it is really tough to get that much offense from the center hash-marks area (the dense red area on the heatmap).
On top of Tampa’s ability to generate offense at an elite level, they have the ability to outperform their goal metrics with their star talent, similar to that of the Leafs. Tampa has a league-leading S% of 11.07% which may sound slightly high, but since they have sustained above 10% over the past few seasons I would not write it off as something that is unsustainable.
With all this said, Tampa clearly has the offensive power to compete with any team in the league even though it is obvious with the names on the roster, it is still important to note how remarkable the offense is. With a lethal powerplay, the ability to create so many high-quality chances at 5v5 and the shooting talent, this team is no joke when it comes to scoring goals.
Now that we have covered Tampa Bay’s ability to score goals, it is time to take a look at their ability to prevent goals.
Next. The Defense. dark
Tampa Bay’s Defense
When the average hockey fan talks about defensive teams, they would generally mention teams such as the Boston, Bruins, New York Islanders, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild or St. Louis Blues. (Most of whom allow less high danger chances per game than the Leafs).
These teams are all considered above-average defensive teams, however, the Tampa Bay Lightning are not far off and they are even better defensively than a number of these teams listed.
But in reality, when Tampa is stacked up against the most commonly discussed defensive teams, they are almost identical.
My assumption is that since they are such a skilled offensively oriented team they have not being labeled as good defensively. Just because the Tampa doesn’t play low event hockey, this doesn’t mean that they don’t suppress scoring chances at an effective level.
Another reason I can see their defense being underrated is the idea that Vasivelisky is the best goalie in the world because of his S%, when in reality his SV% is so high because of the team in front of him. If we use metrics such as GSAx which account for shot quality against, then Vasivelisky’s numbers look largely worse than you may expect.
For what reason this is the case, I don’t have the answer to it, but it sure does make sense. The notion that a skilled offensive team can not be excellent defensively is completely false.
But to further discuss this, it is important to break the team’s defensive value even further.
The first aspect to note is how good some of Tampa’s players are defensively. So we will start with the defensemen.
Tampa Bay’s Defensemen
On the defensive side of things, Tampa has some excellent shutdown players with the likes of Ryan McDonagh, Eric Cernak, and former Norris winner Victor Hedman, along with other players who are competent defensive play drivers.
With players like Mikhail Sergachev and Kevin Shattenkirk, they may not be phenomenal in their defensive end (although probably more effective than you would assume) but they are excellent at breaking up plays in the neutral zone to even prevent the opposition to even enter the defensive zone.
These players do put up very respectable defensive metrics, they would probably be on the top of the Toronto Maple Leafs blueline in terms of limiting chances against.
Relating back to the Toronto Maple Leafs again, both players play a similar mold to Travis Dermott who I broke down why he is so effective at preventing offense here. In fact, Habs writer Mitch Brown did an excellent video/number analysis of Sergachev’s ability to defend a few years ago, from which I assume Sergachev must have only improved from at this point in his career.
Overall the group of Tampa Bay’s defensemen is a very strong one, not the best in the league by any means but still above average.
But to me what drives the bus more than anything as to why the team is so effective at preventing goals against is their forward group.
Tampa Bay’s Forwards
Players including Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorin, Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point and the whole group as a whole are so effective at preventing offense against.
In fact, offensively I am not sure if they can beat out the Toronto Maple Leafs crop of forwards, but there is no doubt their group of forwards are superior on the defensive side of the game.
To circle back to the players, it would not be official if I did not exclaim about Anthony Cirelli legitimately deserving Sekle trophy buzz, which had finally started to emerge as a talking point.
Cirelli has been among the most impactful players at limiting chances both on the penalty kill and at even strength since he got into the league. Loserpoints from Raw Charge went into more detail on Cirelli’s defensive game last season from which I only expect he would have improved upon as he closes in on his prime.
To sum up the team as whole defensively, we can now take a look at the team-wide metrics to cover the team’s defensive game as a whole.
Overall Defensive Game
When we compared Tampa Bay’s defensive metrics compared to the rest of the league, they again show up a very good, unsurprisingly.
The first and most important aspect we should look at is the teams 5v5 defensive game.
In terms of metrics at 5v5, Tampa ranks 5th in GA/60, 3rd in CA/60 (shot attempts against per 60), and 4th in xGA/60 (expected goals against/60). These rankings are of course at the top of the league, so Tampa’s 5v5 defense rounds out to be among the elite.
Here is the visual for their defense at 5v5 (Negative is a good thing in this case and less red is good).
View post on imgur.com
Chart from Micah Blake McCurdy’s Hockeyviz
This states that Tampa’s defense at 5v5 is 8% above the league average, which is very good.
Moving on to their penalty kill, the Lightning find themselves at 8th in the league at GA/60, which is not among the elite like the other aspects of their game but nonetheless certainly above average.
So next time be sure to understand that because a team is good at offense, this does not mean they are bad at the defensive side of the game.
Next. Outlook in regards to the Leafs. dark
What Should This Tell us moving forward?
When we combine everything about the makeup of the Tampa Bay Lightning, they are the best team in the NHL and no team in the league should be in favor of facing them in the playoffs over any other team. EVEN the Boston Bruins.
The only thing that Tampa does not find themselves elite at is goaltending and penalty killing, both of which they are above the average team in these departments.
Since Keefe took over the Toronto Maple Leafs record has been 4th in the league, in this time Tampa Bay has gained 15 points on the Leafs, that is how phenomenal they have been in this stretch.
The Toronto Maple Leafs should be praying they will not have to run into this team in the first round because the team will have to rely on a lot of luck if they are to win this series. At the minimum, everything will have to turn out perfect which I don’t believe is something that is smart to bet on being the case.
Again, a seven-game series doesn’t tell the whole story and anything could happen just like it did last year with Tampa Bay against Columbus. So we never know what the outcome could be, but the idea is that the best team will win most of the time.
Next. The Problem With How the Leafs Play. dark
Cheering to face Tampa in the first round is not something that any fan should be doing unless you want your team to lose in the first round that is. I recommend if you ever get a chance to watch a couple of Tampa games because they are a great team to watch.