The Toronto Maple Leafs would like to add a back-up goalie.
The rumour mill would have us believe that they are interested in Alexandar Georgiev, and in this case I’d be willing to bet that that is true.
For a draft pick, Georgiev would be a nice addition to the team, and an upgrade over Michael Hutchinson.
But according James Mirtle, the Rangers want a roster player for that, and that is a joke.
You don’t trade assets for back-up goalies. It makes no sense. They barely play, you can’t predict what they’ll do in the future, and the math says it’s a dumb idea.
Even the Bruins (whose Jan Halak is the only exception to this rule) would probably be wiser just to spend the money they are paying Halek on their roster.
If Georgiev can be had for a 3rd rounder, or a B-level prospect, then that would he sweet. Otherwise, no way.
Toronto Maple Leafs Goalies
Here is why you don’t pay assets for Georgiev:
1. You can’t predict whether he’ll be a good starter in the NHL.
2. If he’s any good, you’ll lose him in the expansion draft where you can only protect one goalie.
3. Any team is pretty much done (save for the grace of luck) if they lose their #1 goalie. There is just no cost vs reward situation where it makes sense to take up cap space and spend assets on a player who will play only 10 games.
If you think insurance is worth paying for, consider this: insurance companies are very good at math, never fail, and they are very rich. Why? Because they sell you a bad deal for piece of mind. In real life, this might be worth it. In hockey, it just isn’t.
The Toronto Maple Leafs should add Georgiev if the price is Jeremy Bracco or less. Otherwise, it’s a waste of time.
With one exception.
If the Leafs 100% believe that he is their goalie of the future, they could trade for him and sign him to a reasonable extension that would be team friendly in the future if he gets good. In this situation, you realize that you are almost certainly not going to re-sign a 31 year old Freddie Andersen to a stupid Carey Price Contract, and you expose him in the expansion draft instead.
But this only works if you actually have some reasonable idea that Georgiev is a future Vezina Worthy goalie.
If you don’t think he is, clearly you can’t make that bet. Since goalies are so unpredictable, I can’t see the Leafs wanting to do that.
A better option than paying a dumb price for Georgiev is Michael Hutchinson. He isn’t going to cost you anything, and you already have him.