Toronto Maple Leafs: Follow the Evidence, Respect the Process

Man if I had a dollar for every time someone came up to me and said something about the Toronto Maple Leafs that was easily disputed, then completely ignored the evidence…

The Toronto Maple Leafs are soft…..they don’t have a “playoff” roster, they are screwed because of their back-up goalie, William Nylander isn’t good, the playoffs are barely a possibility, they should have stuck with Lamoriello……etc.

It’s amusing, but I believe sports encapsulates society, and so it’s kind of frightening. You should be able to take for granted that an adult human will change their mind when presented with new information, but that doesn’t seem to be the case today.

This site and it’s comments section are unique  in a world where people tend to write to their audience and read only what they already agree with.

People come here to just disagree with me, and I think that’s awesome.  You don’t have to like me or even agree with me, but at least you’re reading something that isn’t just confirming what you already believe.

The internet has seemingly created a world where facts only matter if they support what you already believe.  It’s sad and it’s wrong and it’s scary, but there it is.

So in light of that, at least if you hate-read this column, at least you’re getting information you aren’t predisposed to agree with.  I think that’s a good thing.

But I also think it’s important to follow the facts, and the evidence.

The Toronto Maple Leafs Will Make the Playoffs

The evidence tells us that William Nylander is one of the NHL’s very best 5v5 players.

The evidence tells us that Jake Gardiner is having a very good, very unlucky season with the Hurricanes.

The evidence tells us that if the Leafs beat the Bruins in the playoffs last year, and got unlucky (game two officiating, 7 PP goals against, Kadri suspension).

And if they can outplay the Bruins 5v5 in a seven game series, then the stuff about being soft and facing “heavy” teams is probably total crap.

The evidence tells us that it is.

The evidence tells us that even a goalie significantly worse than Hutchinson won’t go 0-6 and allow five goals per game over any significant amount of time.

As for Lamoriello, the evidence tells us that he has overpaid a series of bad players since taking over for the Islanders.  This is backed up by his terrible contracts to Nikita Zaitsev and Patrick Marleau while he was here.

The only things stopping people from recognizing the evidence that says Lamoriello is one of the NHL’s worst GM’s is that the media has in large part resisted the NHL stats movement, leading to a vast majority of fans to distrust Kyle Dubas from the beginning, despite a very good track record so far, and the fact that Lou’s current team (and their objectively weak roster) has gone on one of the longest goaltending hot-streaks in recent memory.

But all the evidence we have says that won’t last.

And what about the people criticizing Matthews? You’ll never believe what the evidence says about them.  (Hint: It says they are wrong).

If you want to be negative, I’m not going to stop you.  

The Toronto Maple Leafs are not likely to go another year without dressing their optimal lineup.  Their coach isn’t going to lose the dressing room anytime soon.  Their new coach plays a style more suited to the team that has been built, but that will take time.  Their back-up goalie, even if worse, wouldn’t normally have a record like this.  The power-play and the team’s shooting percentage will rise.  The team isn’t likely to play two more months this year with sub 900 goalie save percentage.  The schedule won’t feature as many back-to-back games as it has.

Taking all these factors into consideration, it’s very reasonable to think the Leafs will do better than they’ve done so far.  It’s no guarantee, but the probability is there. The evidence is highly suggestive.

The Leafs could still miss the playoffs, but if you can’t look at a roster that has two of the five or six best centres in the NHL and be optimistic, maybe nothing will change that.

The probability is that they will be much better going forward.

Listen to the evidence.