The Toronto Maple Leafs have played two games under new coach Sheldon Keefe.
The new coach has the Toronto Maple Leafs playing a more uptempo style of play that plays more in line with the skills of the roster.
Perhaps frustrated with their freewheeling ways, this season Mike Babcock had the centres coming down lower on defense this year, and had the defenseman hanging back and joining the rush less.
He also used his fourth line in an extreme fashion, putting them out for nearly every defensive zone draws, which led to a lack of rush chances for his scorers.
Sheldon Keefe appears ready to open the game up, concentrate on puck possession in order to create scoring chances. There is talk about more freedom and less position dependent offensive zone play.
All of this sounds good. Great even.
But what’s the deal with Cody Ceci?
Cody Ceci Isn’t a Top Pairing Player
In multiple interviews this week, the coach was quoted as saying that he doesn’t know the roster intimately enough yet to decide the lines.
As such, he hasn’t changed anything major in terms of lineup decisions. Nick Petan isn’t suddenly on a scoring line, Rasmus Sandin wasn’t called up, and Cody Ceci remains their top pairing defender.
All of this makes sense.
As coach of the Marlies, if Keefe is even 10% as dedicated to detail as we’ve been led to believe in literally every story about him this week, then he probably didn’t have that much time to know a lot about the Leafs roster.
Sure, he coached a lot of them, but for most of them it wasn’t recently, and other than Nylander, most of the guys he has coached aren’t core players.
So it does make sense that he’d leave the lineup more or less the same for the first little while. But while Babcock stubbornly clung to the notion that Cody Ceci was a top pairing player, Keefe is bound to notice that he isn’t, sooner or later.
In the Colorado game, Cody Ceci was pretty bad. He did block a shot goalie-style at the end of the game to preserve the win, but he also made several terrible decisions that led to odd man rushes.
Also, considering the Leafs want to play a high possession game, it is weird to play a guy so much who is constantly ruining offensive zone time with questionable pass and shot selection. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
Against the Coyotes – a game the Toronto Maple Leafs dominated – Ceci was third in 5v5 icetime and posted a brutal 41% Corsi. This was -27% relative to his team.
He led the Leafs by being on the ice for four high danger chances against. He was out-shot 10-5 and was the only Leafs defenseman with a negative Corsi rating.
Against the Avalanche, Ceci led the team in ice time (inexplicably) and was a BRUTAL 36% Corsi. (-15% relative to his team). He once again posted a 33% shot share percentage, and lead the team by allowing the most high-danger chances (five).
It wouldn’t be fair for the coach to come in sight unseen and demote Cody Ceci, but after two games there is ample evidence that he is playing too high up in the lineup.
The fact is, Cody Ceci hurts the Leafs at 5v5 and at the very least he shouldn’t be on their top pairing.
Ceci has the lowest possession rating among the Leafs six regular defenseman, and a 48.49% shot share (second lowest). Ceci is one of just two Leafs defenseman (Muzzin) to have a negative expected goal differential.
Ceci does have a positive goal differential but this is because the Leafs goalies have saved nearly 94% of the shots when he’s been on the ice. The expected goal stats clearly show this to be an anomaly.
Now add in the fact that he produces next to no offense – one goal, for assists – and the usage of Cody Ceci continues to absolutely blow minds.
There is just no justification for how the Toronto Maple Leafs are using this player. At best, he is a third pairing player, and he should not be dragging Morgan Rielly down any longer.
Since he is a third pairing player, it is imperative that the cap crunched Toronto Maple Leafs trade him so that they can replace him with a cheap AHL option (Rasmus Sandin) and then use the savings to upgrade their backup goalie.
That might happen, it might not. One thing we can say for certainty: Cody Ceci won’t be on the top pairing very long under Sheldon Keefe.