Toronto Maple Leafs Roundtable: The Is the Cody Ceci Experiment Working?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are struggling defensively.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been struggling defensively during the seasons start. After 11 games played they have allowed 38 goals against, most of the league. While goaltenders Andersen and back-up Hutchinson haven’t been on top of their game with a combined 0.898 save percentage, they’re not entirely to blame.

Despite having a good possession rate of 52.94% average, they don’t post that great defensive numbers; allowing 32 shots per 60 minutes for instance. With an HDCF% rating of 47.37%, it’s not surprising they have the third-highest goals against per 60 minutes rating of 3.19 (courtesy of naturalstattrick).

Star defenseman Morgan Rielly has not been playing as good as last year. Yes, he’s on a point per game pace, which is great, but his overall game hasn’t been eying as good as before.

Paired with newly acquired Cody Ceci, one cannot help to seek a correlation. Could Ceci be the reason Rielly hasn’t been good enough yet? It’s what we’ve pondered about as well at Editor in Leaf and that’s why for this weeks roundtable the writing staff came together to answer the following question;

“Is it time to end the Cody Ceci experiment?” 

Let’s find out.

My Take

Yes, it absolutely is. The presence of Cody Ceci along Rielly makes the potential Norris Trophy winner look uncomfortable, to say the least.

Without any disrespect towards to Ceci, truly. He’s exceeded my expectations so far and has positively surprised me thus far in the season. Alas, he’s just not a fit on Rielly’s side. It’s a waste of everyone’s time, including Ceci.

So why haven’t the Toronto Maple Leafs separated Ceci from Rielly?

The most brought up argument I’ve come across is that it isn’t a choice out of luxury, but out of pure necessity, desperation if you will. I don’t believe that to be the case, ridiculous.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have better options at hand, they choose not to exploit them. From the current top-four defenseman on the active roster, three of them are not part of the long-term plan and will likely be gone after the season, if not sooner.

Despite Rielly being the only player from the current top-four being part of the long-term plan, he’s stuck with a temp who doesn’t, in any fashion, makes him play better or compliments Rielly’s game, that’s not really a long-term thought, is it?

With Barrie and Muzzin as rentals this season, pairing them together will probably only help them in their free-agent status in the summer coming off a good year playing together.  The balance might be less, but putting either one of them with Rielly would certainly improve Rielly’s game.

I’m not saying the Toronto Maple Leafs should do something rash like blow a year of Sandin’s or Liljegren’s ELC contract, especially with Dermott returning, but they do need to stop the Cody Ceci experiment.

Mark van der Lugt

Putting Ceci onto the top pairing is a really interesting strategy, as the Toronto Maple Leafs are the best team he’s ever played with in his entire career.

Toronto is able to mask much of his inefficiencies on the ice as a result. For Ceci, it’s hard to look good when put into the wrong role on a bad team, but even with Toronto, he has not been good enough.

Is it time for the experiment to end? Let’s take a look at some of their numbers;

The eye test has shown that the pair has struggled significantly, meanwhile, the numbers say the complete opposite. Ceci and Rielly have both started in the defensive zone at slightly above 50% and have posted positive possession numbers. Their PDO is right around league average, but is this a result from the forwards being exceptionally good and a really good starting goalie?

I personally think Rielly is having a tough time adjusting to a new partner, and it doesn’t help that Ceci looks out of place. Here’s the issue: who takes Ceci’s spot if you take him off the pairing? The pairings need to be balanced. What management needs to focus on, is properly rebuilding Ceci’s value, as he will not be on the team next year due to the coming salary-cap crunch.

Having Ceci on the top pair is out of necessity right now, but it is not a permanent solution. When Dermott comes back from injury, the pairings could be significantly shuffled around.

David Scala

When the Toronto Maple Leafs acquired defenseman Cody Ceci from the Ottawa Senators this past summer, there was an obvious concern as to what role he would be given in the lineup on the back end.

Well noted by Senators fans, Cody Ceci was a very polarizing player in Ottawa. Despite his positive offensive production, defending is most definitely not his strong suit.

Fast-tracking to training camp, Ceci had a relatively decent showing. Being paired up with Morgan Rielly all throughout pre-season, Ceci was a bit of an afterthought among fans. Mostly due to Rasmus Sandin’s remarkable camp and the addition of Tyson Barrie, Ceci was able to come into camp and not have all the focus directly on him.

Through the first 9 games of the regular season, Ceci has had quite a few good games and some bad ones. As Travis Dermott nears his return to the lineup after off-season shoulder surgery, the Maple Leafs back end is sure to change in the coming weeks.

Has Cody Ceci earned himself minutes with Morgan Rielly? Not really, but there was no option to take his place and play those kinds of minutes. Ceci is very familiar with the workload of a top 4 defenseman, so it made sense for Mike Babcock to put his trust in a player who has the experience instead of a rookie.

The Cody Ceci experiment to me is a stopgap until the return of Travis Dermott, who has been slated to be Rielly’s partner. For now, Ceci is doing his job and filling the shoes of an injured top four defensemen, and that’s all you can ask from him. Nothing more, nothing less.

Kyle Cushman

Before we jump into things here, I’ll preface this by saying seeing Cody Ceci in a Toronto Maple Leafs jersey scares me just as much as it scares everyone else.

That being said, the Leafs simply can’t end the Ceci experiment this early. From every angle you look at, Toronto can’t afford to cut bait with Ceci just three weeks into the season.

For starters, the team doesn’t have a ready replacement. Without Ceci, Morgan Rielly would be left to play with one of Justin Holl or Martin Marincin. That alone makes this an open and shut case. I’ll hear the argument once Travis Dermott is healthy and playing games, but as the roster stands, it would be irresponsible to end the Ceci experiment now.

Thrusting Holl or Marincin into top-four minutes is asinine. The club obviously wants Timothy Liljegren with the Marlies, otherwise, he would be on the NHL team already. The way the roster is constructed here in late October, Toronto has no other option than to keep with Cody Ceci.

The fact of the matter is, Ceci hasn’t even been as bad as we all anticipated. Has he had his defensive gaffs? Sure. Has he continuously made baffling pinches leaving Rielly to defend an odd-man rush? Absolutely. But Ceci currently has a positive Corsi for (50.8%) and expected goals for (50.5%) all while sporting a PDO of 102.

Ceci isn’t a $4.5 million defenceman by any means, but he’s been serviceable for the Maple Leafs through three weeks. When Dermott returns to the lineup, this conversation can be had much more seriously, but as things stand today, the Leafs cannot end the Cody Ceci experiment.

James Tanner

Is the Cody Ceci experiment working?

Only if the Toronto Maple Leafs plan involves farm animals.  “Hey, we’ve already got a goat, what would you think about adding a turkey?”

Let us be clear: The Leafs could have walked away from Cody Ceci, but they didn’t because they knew that there was a small chance he could be rehabilitated and a risk-free guarantee that they could trade him if that didn’t happen.

So instead of getting nothing out of the Ottawa trade, they’ll get a sixth round draft pick.

Cody Ceci’s top potential is replacement player.  You could replace him with Kevin Gravel, Jordan Schmaltz, Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren etc.  and there’d be no loss of quality or chance to the team.

He is a bad player.

Mike Babcock’s insistance of playing him on the top pairing, against the best competition in the NHL (hard matching him recently against Kucherov, Bergeron, etc.) is nothing short of incompetent.

I’ve seen people list his stats and say it’s working.  These people do not understand the concept of opportunity cost.

Ceci’s most common linemates are Rielly, Matthews, Marner and Tavares.  Accepted analytical theory tells us that linemates have a 5x greater impact than a player’s competition, so it’s not surprising the results are OK.

But OK results are not acceptable for a top pairing player on a team looking to win a Stanley Cup. Ceci’s results are just slightly over 50% in all the main stats.  But if you replaced him with someone who could consider themselves Morgan Rielly’s peer, they’d be a heck of a lot higher.

For proof of this, head on over to naturalstattrick.com and switch the filter to see “relative stats” and you can see that, relative to his teammates, Ceci’s stats are all negative.

Not only should Ceci not be playing on the top pairing, he quite honestly shouldn’t even be on the team.  Travis Dermott cannot get back fast enough.