What the Toronto Maple Leafs Blue-Line Should Look Like in October

The Toronto Maple Leafs are likely to start the season with just two returning blue-liners from last season.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will have the should-be reigning Norris Trophy winner Morgan Rielly, as well as recent acquisition Jake Muzzin return, but Travis Dermott will start the year on the injured reserve.

Ron Hainsey, Nikita Zaitsev and Igor Ozhiganov have all been sent packing, while Jake Gardiner remains a possibility.

As Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev made up half of the worst top-four in the NHL, this is welcome news.

It also means that training camp is going to be very exciting, since there are so many open spots to be won.

Toronto Maple Leafs in September

Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, and Tyson Barrie are shoe-ins to make the roster.  When he returns, Dermott will take a top-four role as well (assuming Gardiner does not return).

But who will fill out the other three spots?

The Toronto Maple Leafs have lots of options.

Codi Ceci – he is terrible, and was only signed because to let him walk would be bad asset management.  There are at least 20 teams in the NHL still operating under the illusion that players like this are good, and one of them is likely to eventually trade for Ceci when the Leafs inevitably have to move his $4.5 cap-hit.

I predict that he won’t ever play a game for the Leafs, but while he’s here he remains an option.

Jordan Schmaltz – Acquired this week from the Blues, Schmaltz is an interchangeable bottom pairing player who can play 14 minutes a night and not hurt you too bad.  Limited upside and abilities.

Ben Harpur – This is another bottom-pairing guy you hope you don’t ever have to actually play. If you do – no worries, most teams have players like this.   No upside and abilities.

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Martin Marincin – As unfairly lambasted as Jake Gardiner, good things happen when Marincin is on the ice.  As seen in the chart above, he is significantly better than Schmaltz (and way, way better than Harpur).

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Justin Holl –  He’s OK, too.  None of these guys is really all that much different from the others. They’re professional players in a league where the margins between players are tiny.  Shrink that down to just talk about bottom-pairing guys, and it’s barely different at all.

If I had to rank them, it’d go Marincin, Holl, Schmaltz, Harpur, but ideally I’d have players on the roster with more upside than any of them.

Timothy Liljegren –  Let’s assume that Gardiner doesn’t return and that Dermott doesn’t have super-human healing abilities.  That means that all Liljegren has to do is beat out Cody Ceci – who is not good – and he could find himself on the top pairing to open the year.

Now, Mike Babcock is most likely way too conservative for that (although who knows what promises he made to keep his job) so the betting money would be (sadly) on Ceci to open the year with Rielly.

As much as writing that made me throw up a little in my mouth, it does seem to be the most obvious scenario.  The silver lining, however, is that Liljegren is going to have to really suck in order to not make the team in training camp.

The Leafs could want him playing 20 minutes per night though, so he could win a job and still not get one.  I don’t see any possibility that the Leafs are better with Schmaltz than Liljegren, but teams baby their prospects sometimes and who knows?

Rasmus Sandin –  It’s funny, people will say things like “you can’t play two rookeis on your blue line”  with no trace of irony, as they are perfectly fine if the Leafs had a Harpur / Schmaltz bottom pairing.

Here is a guarantee:  today (not eventually)  a pairing of Harpur /Schmaltz is about 5% as good as a Sandin/Liljegren pairing would be.

Like Liljegren, Sandin should easily make the Toronto Maple Leafs this season based on his skill and ability.  The question comes down to whether or not the Leafs will promote him this fast.

It’s a weird question because traditionally, the answer is no. But the Toronto Maple Leafs are the NHL’s foremost analytics team, and the analytics will tell you that there is no benifit to wasting prime seasons of a player’s career in the AHL.

The Blue-Line in October

Now, keep in mind that this could all change – the Leafs are making one trade per day at this point – but here is how I see things shaking out.

Here is what they should have, with the parenthesis indicating a totally healthy roster:

Rielly – Liljegren (Dermott)

Muzzin – Barrie 

Sandin – Ceci  (Liljegren)

Here is what they probably will have (based on my current respect level for the guy who kept Ron Hainsey on the top pairing all season long).

Rielly – Ceci

Muzzin – Barrie 

Harpur – Schmaltz  

It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but one thing is certain: The Leafs have lots of OK players for depth in case of injury.

Other than that, who knows.  I do like it, however, that there is a path for both Liljegren and Sandin to make the Toronto Maple Leafs.