Explaining Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Signed Cody Ceci

The Toronto Maple Leafs traded for Cody Ceci last week.

The Ottawa Senators sent Ceci to the Toronto Maple Leafs, along with a couple of AHL players and a draft pick, in exchange for Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev.

The trade was weird on several levels.

For example: how is the “sweetener” of this trade Connor Brown, a fourth liner who is overpaid and who the Leafs would have happily given away?

or: why do the Leafs also get a draft pick in exchange for the Senators helping them out?

but the weirdest thing is: why are the Leafs trading for Cody Ceci?

Toronto Maple Leafs and Codi Ceci

Ceci is a big guy, and he’s right handed.  That checks out.

The Leafs aren’t well stocked with size or RHD, so on one level, this makes sense.

But Codi Ceci doesn’t have good stats.  In fact, he has very bad stats.

He doesn’t move the puck, he doesn’t clear the zone, he doesn’t put up a ton of offense, he seems to make players he plays with worse, and he appears to be vastly overpaid.

So it was obvious that the Leafs would refuse to sign him.

Then when it became clear that he would be signed, the rumour was that he’d be paid off with a signing bonus so the Leafs could flip him to another team.

But then yesterday, it was announced that the Leafs signed Ceci to a one year deal with no signing bonus.

Ceci said on the radio that he was told he’d be in the Leafs top four.

Now the thing that makes this weird is that the this runs counter to the way the Leafs usually do business.

Furthermore, it puts unnecessary strain on their cap situation and may impact their ability to resign Mitch Marner.  It definitely makes it impossible for them to bring back Gardiner.

So why?

Why take a flyer on a player who could be swapped out with no loss of value with one of Marincin, Holl, Sandin, Borgman or Liljegren and give the team another $3.5 to spend?

If I had to guess – and it’s kind of my job, so I might as well – I’d say that even if they ditched Ceci, they still couldn’t sign Gardiner, so in the end, the opportunity cost of keeping Ceci is basically nothing.

If Gardiner isn’t the cost of singing Ceci – and it’s impossible to believe they’d pick Ceci over Gardiner, given what we know about Kyle Dubas – then there is no real cost, only benefits.

The Toronto Maple Leafs can take a chance that Ceci’s bad play was based on being on a bad team, in a bad situation with bad coaches.  They can try to revitalize him, maybe trade him if a better use of cap space comes along later in the season.

They also avoid having to rush anyone who may or may not be ready for the NHL.  He gives them options.

The odds of a 25 year old with bad stats suddenly getting better in the middle of his career are low, but it’s not unheard of (Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnation).

Best case scenario: Cody Ceci thrives in Toronto, revitalizes his career, and makes the team better.

Worst case scenario:  He isn’t good, and they flip him to one of the 20 or so GMs who has no clue what he’s actually doing.

It’s win-win.

I hold out hope, of course, for a Jake Gardiner Christmas Miracle, but it’s looking unlikely.

If you’re wondering why the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Cody Ceci, I think the risk/reward scenario outlined about pretty much explains it.

But who can really know?