The Toronto Maple Leafs had what was arguably the best centre depth in the entire NHL last season.
They had elite number one centres on their top 2 lines and the third line had probably the most overqualified centre in the NHL. The 4th line, however, was a totally different story with Frederik Gauthier and Par Lindholm being the primary centres. Considering all the offensive talent the Leafs had down the middle, their worst two shooters centred the bottom line.
The 2019-20 season will be completely different. There was too much talent to go around last year and that resulted in Tavares and Matthews simply not playing the minutes they deserved.
This coming season there is no Nazem Kadri for the third line and the likely replacement is one of the new recruits, Alexander Kerfoot or Jason Spezza. Although it’s been heavily speculated that the role is Kerfoot’s, the injuries early on will likely lead to some shuffling of lines. Without Zach Hyman, it seems logical that Kerfoot will play up the line-up on the left wing, where he’s spent most of his NHL career. This would lead to the Leafs facing the exact same issue they had last season, who plays 4th C.
The Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018-19 played the 4th line far too much. Whilst against Boston in the playoffs there were times they looked like on the best lines, having your 4th line centre play 8+ minutes on a team with Tavares, Matthews and Kadri is absurd. That being said, whilst losing Kadri is a downgrade, this may be a sign we see Tavares and Matthews used more. Given this change in personnel, it looks likely that the 4th line’s role will be extremely similar to that of last season, hopefully just with reduced minutes.
The Candidates
In evaluating the players who could fill this role, it’s important to first understand the job expected of them. The fourth line started over 70% of their shifts in their own zone last season with only two of them, Brown and Ennis, spending any real time on special teams. They averaged between 8 and 9 minutes a night and as expected, given their usage, were consistently out-chanced at 5 on 5. Their role last season was simply not to get outscored and allow the top 9 time to rest.
Although they were heavily outshot, they were successful at not being outscored.
Image Courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com
The two clear candidates for the role early in the season are newcomer, Nick Shore, and current 4th line centre, Freddy Gauthier. Let’s break down both their games to look at who’s the best fit for the upcoming season.
Option 1: Freddy Gauthier
Frederik Gauthier has the caveat of having played this role last season. Whilst it is absolutely undeniable that it wasn’t pretty, and not much of the big man’s game is, it was effective. Although Freddy’s game was adequate defensively, he was an absolute black hole for offence.
Now, some may say this is no issue, but Freddy’s lack of offense didn’t only hurt him, it heavily affected his linemates. He was also buoyed by having an extremely high on-ice shooting percentage of 11.1%, considering his individual shooting percentage was only 6.5%. All this makes it look like Freddy wasn’t at all a driving point of his line’s success and in fact he was probably holding them back.
Considering Gauthier’s lack of offensive production and usage in the defensive zone, it is unusual that he isn’t used on the penalty kill. If Babcock either doesn’t trust Gauthier or doesn’t consider him good enough to provide any value on the penalty kill, it’s hard to argue that his 5v5 contribution is enough to keep him in the line-up.
Gauthier’s game has undeniably grown in the past season. His high danger shot suppression has heavily improved. Considering where he starts the majority of his shifts it’s very impressive that the Leafs give up far fewer shots from the slot with him on the ice than when he’s off it. If Gauthier were to retain his role, it would be purely on the merit of his defensive game.
Option 2: Nick Shore
Nick Shore is a player who has been desired by Toronto Maple Leaf fans since well before this season. Shore spent last year in the KHL, putting up 16pts (3-13-16) in 37 games playing 16.01ATOI per night. He was more heavily relied upon in the playoffs, leading his team with 5pts (2-3-5) in 6 games and playing over 19 minutes a night.
Prior to that, Shore played somewhere between third and fourth line minutes through his NHL career. Shore is about an even faceoff man and would also provide the Leafs with another right-handed centre. Shore would be an upgrade offensively on the fourth line for the Leafs and would provide a better skater and passer for his wingers.
However, Shore hasn’t been utilised as a defensive centre in the way the Leafs utilised their 4th line last year and is very much untested in that role.
Conclusion
Who plays this role likely comes down to the utilisation of the line. Considering that the line could include any of Mikheyev, Moore, Bracco and others, it hopefully gets more offensive usage than last season. If the role is more offensive, Shore would offer the line more creativity as a better passer and skater.
Both Gauthier and Shore would offer the line next to nothing in terms of individual goalscoring threat. Shore also would bring better possession metrics to the line and has better teammate impacts than Gauthier. However, Shore has never played the role that Gauthier and his linemates were deployed in last season.
If the role is similar, it seems unlikely that Babcock relies on a centre in Shore who has been deployed more as an offensive centre.
Once everyone is fit it’s likely that this role is reserved for Jason Spezza. Spezza is one of the best on the draw in the league and has already stated he will play both special teams. Whoever wins this spot to start the year needs to stake a claim to remain in the line-up once Hyman returns.
Thanks for reading!