Analyzing the Toronto Maple Leafs New Third Line Centre

The Toronto Maple Leafs made big news when they traded Nazem Kadri to the Colorado Avalanche last week.

The Toronto Maple Leafs sent Kadri and Calle Rosen to the Avs in exchange for Alexander Kerfoot and Tyson Barrie.

Barrie is the big name in the deal, but it might end up being Kerfoot who is the key to this acquisition.

Since that is probably going to be the case, I think we ought to get to know him a little bit.

Alexander Kerfoot and the Toronto Maple Leafs

Kerfott is 5’10 175 lbs and will turn 25 before the start of next season, according to his hockeydb.com profile page.

He was drafted by the NJ Devils in the 5th round of the 2012 draft. He then spent four years at Harvard and the last two years with the Avalanche.

While most players are what they are by Kerfoot’s age, the fact that he only has two years of NHL experience and appears to be a bit of a late bloomer, means he might still have room to grow at the NHL level.

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In his first season, Kerfoot scored 19 goals and 43 points, and he followed it up last year with a similar 15 and 42.  (Encouraging: in his rookie year, Kerfoot shot 24% at 5v5 and scored 14 goals.  Last year his shooting percentage cratered to under 10% but he still scored 9 5v5 goals).

But it is not the offensive side of Kerfoot that makes him so intriguing – it’s that he is already among the best defensive players in the NHL.  Based on evolving-hockey.com’s justification, I picked him as my choice for the Selke this season in an article I wrote for a different publication.

If you look at the above chart (from evolving-hockey.com, used with permission) you can see that while Kadri is a great offensive player, Kerfoot blows him away defensively.

Considering that on the Leafs, Kadri’s offense was superfluous, this is a huge upgrade on the team, especially in light of the fact that they’ve been missing a + defender to play forward for a long, long time.

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More Stats!

In the second chart, from Ryan Stimson’s Passing Project (also used with permission) we see that Kadri is an elite offensive player, but that Kerfoot makes up for his lack of offense with zone entries and exits that are better.  Keep in mind too, that this chart is for the last three years – the prime of Kadri’s career – and that Kerfoot has only played two seasons so far.

Finally, let’s just look into a few numbers of Kerfoot’s from naturalstattrick.com.

Despite a preposterous 6.52% on-ice shooting percentage (the combined percentage of every Avs player on the ice with Kerfoot) he still put up good numbers last year.

With Kerfoot on the ice, the Avs got 51% of shot-attempts, 51% of shots, and 53% of scoring chances.  Yes, he was a minus player, but that’s only the bad luck of a low shooting percentage – whenever Kefoot was on the ice, the Avalanche played in such a way as to guarantee they’d be a winning team over time.

And that is with his two most common linemates being Tyson Jost and Colin Wilson, both of whom had much worse numbers when on the ice without Kerfoot.

In fact, of his nine most common linemates, eight of them did worse without Kerfoot on the ice.

In conclusion, the Toronto Maple Leafs have acquired a forward who appears to provide elite level defense, which is something they have been in need of.

To get him, they traded a player who provides offense they don’t need, due to already having several of the best scorers in the NHL on their roster.

Additionally, Kerfoot appears to have some upside to his game, and he makes everyone he plays with better.   If he remains consistent, he is already worth the $3.5 cap hit the Leafs signed him to, but if he improves at all, that contract has the potential to be just as valuable and team-friendly as Kadri’s was.

As Kadri exits his prime, and Kerfoot enters his, this appears to be a very smart swap for the Toronto Maple Leafs.  And I say that as someone who considers Nazem Kadri to be his favorite player.

The fact that the Leafs also got a one-year rental of the 59 point Tyson Barrie out of this deal is insanity.

Added bonus: when it comes to Evolving Hockey’s goals-against-replacement charts, both Barrie and Kerfoot destroyed Kadri last year.