Roughly twelve hours ago, the Toronto Maple Leafs had eight pending restricted free agents on their books who would head into the summer in need of new contracts.
This morning, that number has now been split in half.
The Maple Leafs officially extended qualifying offers to four players early last night: Mitch Marner, Andreas Johnsson, Kasperi Kapanen, and Michael Carcone, therein ensuring the signing rights to each recipient remain with the organization for at least another year.
The move is far from a surprising one. As is the case with most situations of this nature, it is highly unlikely that any RFA will actually accept their one-year qualifying offer outright, opting instead to negotiate a longer-term deal if they haven’t already (like Kapanen and Johnsson) or, in Marner’s case, force his own way out of town.
The extensions for the former two are reportedly done in principle and waiting only to be signed immediately following the solution to the Marner debacle. Their fates are more or less sealed. Therefore, extending Kapanen and Johnsson a QO was nothing more than a security measure taken by the Maple Leafs to keep them in-house in the unlikely event that either agreement falls through.
Marner, Johnsson, and Kapanen will not accept their QO’s. That is a certainty. Where things get less certain, however, is with Carcone. The 23-year-old’s QO this season amounts to a cap hit of precisely $735,000, per CapFriend – only a smidge above league minimum while also carrying the uncertainty of a one-year term.
Why would Carcone sign for that? Even if the winger’s lack of NHL experience plays a factor in him considering an acceptance, that avenue does not even appear to make the most sense. Carcone, by all accounts, has a real future within the Leafs organization. He’s a coveted asset. And given how Kyle Dubas first acquired Carcone for an NHLer in Josh Leivo last season, and then saw Carcone perform quite well for the Toronto Marlies to close out the year, this situation likely ends with an extension akin to that of Trevor Moore‘s; two years at an AAV of $700,000 (Moore’s is $775,000).
For a player with Carcone’s resume, that is a best-case scenario. Sacrifice a little when it comes to yearly earnings in order to gain security.
Regardless of which method they ultimately choose, all four qualified RFAs will likely be with the Maple Leafs when they open training camp next season. The same cannot be said for the other four who were not.
Each of Gabriel Gagne, Nicholas Baptiste, Jordan Subban, and Eamon McAdam became unrestricted free agents last night after failing to receive offers of their own, likely ending their tenures within the organization and ushering them onto the open market.
For the most part, this was expected. Gagne disappointed immensely after joining the Marlies via midseason trade from the Belleville Senators, with the 22-year-old winger managing only a scant 7 points in 22 regular season games with Toronto’s AHL affiliate before earning a demotion to the Growlers. Shortly thereafter, Gagne was left off the Marlies’ postseason roster entirely.
Then there’s Subban; a rare Marlies reclamation project that ultimately failed to pan out. Brought in last summer as a developmentally adverse RHD with admittedly dynamic tools, Subban struggled mightily when place in a top-four role early in 2018-19 and spent many nights watching from the press box as a result. With just 18 points in 48 games as a 24-year-old with no NHL experience, the clock is ticking on Subban’s ability to reach hockey’s top level.
Regarding the final two players, the circumstances are a tad different. Both McAdam and Baptiste performed well in their respective stints with the Marlies last season to varying degrees and, on discounted AHL deals, could seemingly warrant a return.
McAdam, for one, was thrust into a decidedly difficult situation early in November when the Marlies were hit with a simultaneous stretch of horrid goaltending and injuries, bringing him up from the ECHL and into an AHL crease. Suddenly entrenched as the team’s 1B, the former third-round pick of the Islanders put forth a .897 save percentage which, while otherwise dismal, looked downright terrific when compared to those around him. At the time, in fact, it was actually Kasimir Kaskisuo who likely earned a demotion in late-December when Michael Hutchinson entered the fold, not McAdam.
Depending on where Hutchinson lands this summer, McAdam could be a worthwhile mentor on the Growlers for either Joseph Woll or Ian Scott, depending on which of the two rookie netminders begins their professional career in the ECHL.
Which leaves only Baptiste. The 23-year-old may not have become the offensive contributor many within the organization thought him to be when he joined the Marlies at the trade deadline, but Baptiste played a vital role on a fourth line that contributed significantly to the team’s extended playoff push, shouldering the heaviest minutes of the entire forward corps alongside Colin Greening and Josh Jooris while still managing to drive play throughout.
Will Baptiste ever be an NHLer? That seems unlikely, at this point. That being said, there is still value in an organization accumulating high-quality depth at the AHL level and, at the right price, Baptiste could be just that.
So there you have it. With five days until the opening of free agency, the Maple Leafs now have a better idea of which names will remain following what is sure to be a busy summer.
Thanks for reading!