The Toronto Maple Leafs are just a few loser points out of second place in the NHL standings.
In a normal year, the Toronto Maple Leafs would have a good shot at the President’s trophy. The Tampa Bay Lightning are a good team, but everything has gone right for them this season. They deserve to be the top team in the league, but they aren’t 20 points better than everyone else.
If you’ve watched the Leafs play Tampa this year, you know that.
Tampa and Toronto are the two best teams in the NHL, and I think Boston is probably the third best.
That means that, for argument’s sake at least, it’s possible that the NHL’s three best teams all play in the same division.
This means that one of these teams is going to play the other (Toronto and Boston is a very high probability match-up) and it also means that one of the three best teams in the NHL is guaranteed to be out in the first round of the playoffs.
Out in the First Round
The way the NHL seeds it’s teams for the playoffs is idiotic. What is the point of playing 82 games if the end result of being a top team is playing another top team?
While one of Toronto or Boston will be eliminated early, if the playoffs started today, one of the Islanders or Carolina would be guaranteed to be in the second round. Hardly seems fair.
The Leafs and Boston, no matter who you favor, are a close matchup. Whoever gets home ice advantage will have a slight edge, and that means there’s about a 48% chance (in a best case scenario) that the Leafs lose in the first round.
This isn’t meant to be an excuse. The reason I bring it up is because I often hear that if the Leafs don’t make it out of the first round, it’s a huge disappointment and (depending on if you like or hate Kyle Dubas’ style and philosophy) either an indictment of Dubas or Babcock.
I know asking sports fans to be moderate, clear thinking and logical is a losing proposition, but I’m going to do it anyways:
If the Leafs lose in the first round, as is highly possible, don’t say it’s because of Babcock. Don’t say it’s because the team is too small. Don’t say it’s because they’re not playing the right style, or that Auston Matthews, John Tavares or whoever isn’t a good enough leader. And sure as heck don’t blame it on Jake Gardiner.
You can’t blame it on any of these factors because to do so will just be post hoc nonsense. It will be taking your most hated part about the Leafs and blaming that for their failure.
However, they won’t have failed. Excepting a four game sweep where they don’t even show up, a matchup against Boston is almost certain to be a hard fought six or seven game series in which the results could tilt either way.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are Stanley Cup contenders, but a scenario where they win the Cup and it turns out their first round matchup was in fact their toughest series is not implausible, or even all that unlikely.
If the Leafs don’t beat Boston, as long as they give a solid effort, I don’t think anyone should criticize them at all. The pressure to get beyond the first round is ridiculous. If you don’t win the Cup, whether you lose in the first round or third round, who cares?