The Toronto Maple Leafs are playing their most competitive hockey in years, but the salary cap crunch is coming. Not everybody will be able to stay.
Next season, the Leafs will have approximately 11 million dollars in salary cap space (assuming the salary cap rises to $83 million) with which to sign Mitch Marner, Andreas Johnsson, Kasperi Kapanen, Jake Gardiner and at least 5 other expiring contracts.
Considering how the market value of those players should be well in excess of 20 million dollars, the Toronto Maple Leafs will need to get creative. That creativity will come in the form of cutting expenses and luxuries to ensure that the exceptional young core of the team can be kept together.
Auston Matthews spoke about the importance of keeping the core together following his contract extension, which was reduced from 8 years to 5 years in an effort to reduce the contract’s average annual value.
Here is a look at three players that will likely be leaving the team because of salary cap pressure.
Jake Gardiner
As an unrestricted free agent this coming summer, each new signing and acquisition must be disappointing for Jake Gardiner this season.
With the signing of William Nylander at $6.96M/year for six years, it first began to appear that Gardiner could be a necessary cap casualty this coming offseason. The subsequent trade for Jake Muzzin and substantial Auston Matthews deal have all but sealed Gardiner’s fate, barring a major shake-up from management.
As an offensively gifted defenseman with three 40-point pace seasons in a row, Gardiner will deserve at least $6M/year on his next contract, despite the amount of criticism he receives in Toronto.
This likely puts him in the category of an “own-rental” this season, much like Leo Komarov, James Van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak last season, who each went on to sign with other teams in free agency.
Nikita Zaitsev
Nikita Zaitsev came on the scene as an international free agent from the KHL in 2016-17. As a 24-year-old rookie, Zaitsev scored 36 points while playing against the other team’s top players each night.
Looking like the steady defensive right-shot defenseman that the Leafs needed, Lou Lamoriello (the team’s general manager at the time) signed Zaitsev to a 7-year contract worth $4.5M/year. 2 years into that contract, Zaitsev’s play has significantly declined.
After an injury last season gave him troubles with foot speed and confidence, Zaitsev’s 2018-19 campaign has not been much better. Now with looming salary concerns, Zaitsev will likely be moved before next season, preferably before his modified no-trade clause activates on July 1st.
Connor Brown
The potential departure of Connor Brown will be bittersweet for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
In 2013-14 Brown led the OHL in scoring with 128 points. As a rookie in the NHL a couple of years later, Brown continued to show promise and strong offensive skills. However, over the past two years, Brown has been unable to match his points, goals or shooting rate from his first season.
With Brown under contract for one more year at $2.1M, it appears that Trevor Moore would be more than ready to step into Brown’s role at only a fraction of the cost ($775K).
It is possible that Brown could be paired with Zaitsev in a trade to make Zaitsev’s contract more tolerable. However, a return of a mid-round draft pick and spare parts may be all the Leafs can expect in what is essentially a salary dump.
The Future
Gardiner, Zaitsev and Brown are likely just the first in a line of players that will be unaffordable luxuries for the Toronto Maple Leafs in future years.
Similar financial limitations have been most notable for teams such as the Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks, both of which have finished with under $300K in cap space for three years in a row.
However, the Blackhawks and Penguins have won the six of the past eleven Stanley Cups. Perhaps salary cap problems are among the best problems a team can have.
Statistics courtesy of hockeydb.com and CapFriendly.com