Despite being loaded with talented forwards, the Toronto Maple Leafs have yet to find a suitable line combination for Auston Matthews longterm.
We are in the dog days of the NHL season and the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves near the top of both the Atlantic Division, the Eastern Conference, and the NHL. Their strong season can be credited to the play of many players on their team, most notably that of Auston Matthews.
Despite missing a good chunk of action due to injury, Matthews has been one of the Leafs’ leading scorers and is on nearly a 100 point pace over an 82 game season. Clearly, he has been the least of Toronto’s worries and his recent contract extension is proof of that.
However, one of the issues with Matthews is that Mike Babcock has yet to find a lineup combination for the 2016 1st overall pick that will both work and last. With the playoffs around the corner, Babcock will need to find a line combination that will be effective with Matthews as the centrepiece.
So let’s figure this one out together, shall we?
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, Matthews has played with nine different players as mentioned earlier, ranging from Mitch Marner to Connor Brown and everyone in between. His most frequent linemates at even strength are Patrick Marleau and Kasperi Kapanen who make up 37.7% of his total TOI.
It has been no secret that Babcock has been wanting to have a line featuring Matthews and Marleau dating back to July 2018. Based on the underlying numbers, however, it is clear that the combination has simply not worked out.
When paired with Marleau at 5v5, Matthews has a 47.47 CF%, a 46.14 SF%, a 47.5 GF%, a 46.07 SCF%, and a 45.0 HDCF% as per Natural Stat Trick. Without Marleau, his numbers dramatically improve to 55.64, 50.17, 54.84, 58.30, and 62.75 respectively.
The two have had their moments where they showed signs of impressive play, but there have also been just as many where the two were hindering the Leafs’ chances. While off the ice the two are great friends, I’m sure Matthews would not lose sleep over not sharing a line with Marleau should the two be split up.
Matthews may not be as effective alongside Marleau, but the results change in a positive manner in regards to Kapanen. At 5v5, the two have a 52.16 CF%, a 50.70 SF%, a 58.33 GF%, a 51.89 SCF%, and a 54.79 HDCF%. These numbers drop-off considerably when the two are apart so it’s clear Matthews’ game improves alongside Kapanen.
The eye-test is just as promising as the two showcased strong chemistry early in the season when William Nylander was absent. It’s no wonder the two have remained together for the vast majority of the campaign thus far.
Andreas Johnsson also falls into this category too. Lined up with Matthews at 5v5, their numbers in the aforementioned categories are significantly strong, while Matthews’ numbers drop-off considerably without Johnsson.
Additionally, the two have good on-ice chemistry that has resulted in some highlight reel moments in the offensive zone. Like Kapanen, Johnsson has spent a lot of this season alongside Matthews and it makes sense given how the two have faired.
Of course, we can’t forget about Nylander who had dominated opponents for the past two years when paired with Matthews. Up to this point at 5v5, the two players have been at their best playing together then when separated.
It is worth noting that this hasn’t translated this season but the sample size is small and Nylander had been struggling to get up to speed in his first two months back.
Having said that, there have been a few moments from this season where the two players showed flashes of the strong chemistry that was shown in the last two campaigns. With Nylander finally playing consistently at a strong level lately, it makes sense to reunite him with Matthews.
Based on all of the numbers I shared, it’s clear that Matthews should not be playing with Marleau. Matthews should instead be playing a combination of Kapanen, Johnsson, or Nylander.
But we still haven’t answered the question: who should be Matthews’ linemates down the stretch?
According to the underlying metrics, pairing Matthews with Kapanen and Johnsson appears to be the best option. In nearly 100 minutes of TOI together at 5v5, the trio has been dominant in all aspects of the ice including a combined 17 points at even strength as per Frozen Tools. The eye-test backs this up as they have all been lethal when together.
Swapping out Kapanen and replacing him with Nylander could also be an effective combination as their numbers together at 5v5 show promise. While not as dangerous as the previously mentioned line, the trio has had their fair share of quality chances when in the offensive end.
To me though, the best combination the Leafs could conceive for Matthews would be playing him alongside Nylander and Kapanen. I harped about this way back in October, and since then the three have played together for a grand total of just under 12 (!) minutes at 5v5.
In their only game together, the line scored a goal 27-seconds into a game against the Detroit Red Wings. While they weren’t perfect, the small sample size showed the potential the line had for being both effective and dangerous.
For Matthews to enjoy consistent success, he needs to be in the offensive zone as much as possible. The fact of the matter is that him playing alongside Marleau has limited that substantially and playing with the other three aforementioned players have allowed Matthews to thrive.
The ideal Matthews line features a combination of Kapanen, Johnsson, or Nylander. Whether it is because of their elusive speed, effective play along the boards, or their strong puck control, each of these players provide something that will help Matthews find offensive success more consistently.
Regardless of which of these three get matched with the Arizona-native, it will no doubt prove to be an effective line for the Leafs.
Thanks for reading!
All stats unless otherwise noted are from Hockey-Reference.com and Natural Stat Trick.