Andreas Johnsson is yet another breakout star in waiting for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
As a 24-year-old rookie coming out of the AHL, Andreas Johnsson has been projected as a checking line forward that can bring speed and energy to the lineup. However, the true extent of his offensive potential has yet to be fully appreciated.
Johnsson has already amassed 28 points in 48 games this season, despite being given very little ice time.
In fact, in 22 years since ice time tracking began, only 3 players have matched Johnsson’s 0.58 points/game this season while playing less than 13 minutes/game*. Those 3 players were Ryan Getzlaf, Alexander Radulov, and Pierre Turgeon, which puts Johnsson among some elite company.
For those who have watched Johnsson’s progression over the past calendar year, his play this season should come as no surprise.
In last year’s Calder Cup playoffs, Johnsson dominated the American League, scoring 24 points in 16 games on his way to a Calder Cup championship and playoff MVP honours. That capped off a stretch that saw Johnsson score 49 points in the final 32 games of his AHL season.
Johnsson has also added 25 points in his last 30 NHL games while playing only 13 minutes/game over that span. It appears that the best is yet to come as he continues to trend upwards. It has become a common trend for under-utilized scorers such as Johnsson to be undervalued at the start of their NHL careers.
Comparable Players
Brad Marchand‘s early career parallels Andreas Johnsson in many ways. As an undersized forward without much draft pedigree, Marchand came into the league and scored 41 points in 77 games (0.53 ppg) in his rookie season, while playing under 14 minutes/game.
Few could have predicted that Marchand would go on to become a legitimate MVP candidate on one of the best lines in hockey, but his high rate of scoring in limited minutes was a key sign of his potential for those who were paying attention.
Kyle Palmieri provides a cautionary tale, should the Leafs be thinking of moving Johnsson to alleviate their salary cap concerns. Palmieri struggled to bust out of a checking line role with the Anaheim Ducks, but still managed to score at a pace of 37 points per 82 games while playing only 12 minutes/game.
In the 2014-15 off-season, the undervalued Palmieri was shipped to New Jersey for a return of only a second-round draft pick and a third-round draft pick. Since being put in the scoring role he is suited for, Palmieri has scored at a rate of 31 goals and 58 points per 82 games in his four seasons with the Devils.
Johnsson’s Future
Coach Mike Babcock has alluded to Johnsson’s usage on the 4th line and his comments suggest that Johnsson may be well on his way to earning a larger role in the Toronto Maple Leafs lineup:
Mike Babcock on fourth-liner Andreas Johnsson today: "He’s making a case, though. The great thing about him is, he hasn’t sat there and said, ‘I’m not getting any minutes.’ He just decided to produce and see if the coach is smart enough to get it figured out.”
— luke fox (@lukefoxjukebox) February 7, 2019
With regards to contract talks, the prevailing narrative has been that Kasperi Kapanen should receive a larger contract than Johnsson after their current contracts expire this summer.
However, it is becoming increasingly clear that Johnsson will deserve as much, if not more than Kapanen when it is time to sign on the dotted line.
The Toronto Maple Leafs will need to make it a high priority to keep Johnsson on their roster, despite the salary cap challenges they will face this summer and next season.
*Includes all skaters who played at least half a season
All statistics courtesy of hockeyreference.com, nhl.com, and theAHL.com