The Toronto Maple Leafs will pair the newly acquired Jake Muzzin with Morgan Rielly on the top pairing.
This will give the Toronto Maple Leafs one of, maybe even the best, top pairing in the NHL. Morgan Rielly is a top five or so NHL defenseman.
He currently leads all NHL defenseman in 5v5 goals (10) and points (31). He is third in total points, but leading in 5v5 is more impressive anyways. Besides, both players ahead of him (Burns and Giordano) have played significantly more minutes.
Morgan Rielly leads all NHL defenseman in points per 60 minutes (all strengths) and has a positive possession rating despite the fact that he is paired with the worst top pairing defenseman in all of hockey.
A Drag on Performance
Moran Rielly is on an 80+ point pace and has flourished despite the objectively terrible partner he has been saddled with. If the NHL season ended today, who knows what the writers would decide, be Rielly would be the objectively best choice for the Norris Trophy.
Across the NHL, people are constantly marveling at how Rielly has done with a partner whose performance has been so dismal.
Forget the +/- numbers because they have no predictive power for the future, and the only thing they really represent are the save percentages of the goalies that played when a player is on the ice.
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If you want to know why people despise Ron Hainsey being paired with Morgan Rielly, it’s because of his 47% Corsi-For, and the fact that together they are a 48% pairing, but Rielly with anyone else is an elite 54%.
It’s not just possession numbers that are effected. Rielly improves his shot, scoring chance and goal differentials whenever he hits the ice with literally any other player.
The numbers do not lie: Ron Hainsey has been holding Morgan Rielly back.
Rielly was one of just three players last year who played against top percentile of competition, posted over 50 points and was a positive possession player. The other two? Victor Hedman and Drew Doughty. Neither one of those guys was saddled with Ron Hainsey.
So it’s crazy to think of what he might be capable now that he has another one of the NHL’s best defenseman to partner with.
And make no mistake: Jake Muzzin is among the best defenseman in the NHL. He is probably the best possession driving defenseman in the NHL and he routinely also gets 40 points.
You can not oversell this upgrade.
For a long time, people have been trying to sell the idea that Ron Hainsey somehow lets Morgan Rielly be the player that he is. Nothing could be more insulting to the skill of Rielly, and nothing could be further from the truth.
This isn’t some argument where some people have varying opinions and anyone could be right. It is an objective fact that Ron Hainsey hurts Morgan Rielly.
A team already listed as one of the best in the NHL just turned their biggest and most glaring weakness – hard matching Ron Hainsey against top competition while playing him on the top pairing – into their biggest strength: The best top pairing in the NHL.
And they did it without giving up very much at all.
all stats naturalstattrick.com