Toronto Maple Leafs: Morgan Rielly Is Going to Win the Norris
By James Tanner
Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly is going to win the Norris Trophy this year.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Morgan Rielly broke out last year and became part of the NHL’s elite blue-liners. Last season, Rielly had 52 points and was one of only three defenseman in the NHL to play against the top percentile of competition, post an above 50% possession rating and hit 50 points.
The other two: Victor Hedman and Drew Doughty.
While Rielly’s two closest statistical peers were nominated for the Norris (with Hedman winning) Rielly was not the third finalist – that was P.K Subban. The voters got it wrong though and Rielly should have been nominated.
P.K vs Morgan
Just because some people still have trouble accepting that Rielly is on this level, here is a quick statistical comparison between Rielly and Subban.
PK finished with 59 points compared to Rielly’s 52. 5v5 PK had two extra points, but he played every game and Rielly missed a few: Rielly finished with a higher points per minute rate.
Rielly had a lower PDO, meaning his statistics were more repeatable than Subbans.
As mentioned, Rielly played tougher competition, as PK plays on a team with a deeper blue-line and gets much more favorable minutes. PK also spent 500 minutes paired with Mattias Ekholm, himself an elite player. Rielly also had a worse partner in Ron Hainsey. Much, much worse. And he had a higher possession rating, relative to his team.
Rielly also had a + 9 penalty drawn vs taken differential. Subban was – 16.
Both players had similar usage in the terms of zone starts and deployment.
Overall, if you account for competition, partner, and look at rates instead of raw stats, you can make a pretty good case that Rielly was objectively better than Subban last year, and that he should have been given a Norris nomination.
Accounting for what he did while stapled to one of the oldest, slowest defenseman in the NHL he legitimately could have won the Norris last year.
Early Favorite
This year, though the season is only four games old, Morgan Rielly has emerged as the early favorite to win the award.
It’d be easy to just say that he’s had a hot start due to the Toronto Maple Leafs ridiculous offense, but that would be unfair. He’s still stuck with Hainsey, but he seems even better than he did last year, when he was a fair choice to win the award.
It’s kind of ironic, because for the longest time everyone said the Leafs need a “true number one defenseman,” while saying that Rielly was, at beste, a #2, but now it turns out the Leafs had their #1 all along.
If you don’t think Morgan Rielly is a top 3-5 defenseman in the world right now, you’re not paying attention.
While it won’t last, Rielly is currently tied for the NHL lead in points with teammate Auston Matthews with 10 in four games. He has two goals and has looked dangerous for nearly 100% of the time he’s been playing.
Yeah, he’s not the greatest defender in the world, but he makes up for it by being smart, fast and offensively talented. If he wasn’t dragging Ron Hainsey around the ice all night, it’s crazy to think how good he’d be doing.
Next. How the Leafs Could Have Better Utilized Their Roster Out of Camp. dark
Rielly is the early favorite to win the Norris Trophy, and though it’s ridiculous to even be saying that four games into the season, the point of this article is to say that Rielly is an elite player. A legitimate #1 defenseman. A superstar.
He’s well on his way to being the best defenseman in the history of the Toronto Maple Leafs, and next summer he’ll be the first one to ever win the Norris Trophy in the blue and white.
It’s scary to think about what he could do once the Leafs put him with another top pairing worthy defenseman.