Toronto Maple Leafs: Yet to Address Biggest Problem
By James Tanner
The Toronto Maple Leafs are not ready to go.
With training camp opening up in just a few weeks, it’s clear that the Toronto Maple Leafs do not have their opening night roster quite yet.
While the addition of John Tavares is nice, the Leafs total Wins Against Replacement for their summer moves is about even. Tavares in, Bozak and JVR out. While I will always argue that it’s better to have one elite player than two above average players, by measured wins or goals, the Leafs have not significantly improved. I think they have improved, but we’re basing that on quite a few assumptions:
- Moving everyone down the lineup will give the Leafs an advantage.
- Tavares or Matthews will dominate against secondary units.
- Matthews, Marner and Nylander all improve due to their ages.
- Kapanen and Johnson can thrive in larger roles.
- Players still in their prime do not significantly decline.
Yes, it’s better to have one elite player than two mid-range player. Yes, having Tavares means they’ll probably be a better possession team than they were, and yes, all-encompassing stats like WAR don’t take into account internal improvement.
But the Leafs have several problems they have so far failed to address.
Weaknesses
It’s really easy to say “this team just finished sixth overall and added Tavares, so we’re good.” The problem with that is, statistically, the Leafs were not close to the sixth best team in the NHL. They were propped up by a Vezina worthy Frederick Andersen who hid from the world one of the worst blue lines and overall team defenses in the NHL.
Odds are, Andersen isn’t playing consistently at last year’s peak levels. If he does, congratulations, you have yourself a Hall of Fame goalie. But realistically, no goalie can be expected to lead such a poor defensive team to the playoffs.
The Leafs 32.85 shots-against per 60 minutes (5v5) was 4th worst in the NHL. They were the worst defensive team to make the Playoffs, and of the bottom 12 teams in shots-against, only three of them made the post-season. (And Colorado only by one point).
The Leafs were under 50% possession, which means they had to win games despite routinely getting out-shot and having the puck less than their opponents. They were the 9th worst team in terms of scoring chances allowed.
They were a bad defensive team, and they haven’t addressed that.
Sure, they are better just by getting rid of Roman Polak, but Ron Hainsey has no business on the roster of a contending team. Their best defensive defenseman, Connor Carrick, hardly ever plays, and they don’t have a quality partner for Morgan Rielly.
On forward, one assumes a larger role for Kapanen and Johnson will improve defense, but by how much? The Bozak line was so sheltered that they probably didn’t hurt as much as you’d think. Nazem Kadri is a warrior, but he is severely miscast as a ‘shut-down centre’ and may in fact be one of the worst in the entire NHL at such a role.
What to do?
Well some things have been done. Kapanen projects as an excellent defensive player. With Tavares and Matthews on board, there’s not much reason for the Leafs to employ Kadri and Marleau in a role they are unsuited for. The 1-2 elite centre punch is going to ensure you have the puck a lot, so I’m not sure there is much sense in limiting their ice time to play games to get Kadri on the ice against the other team’s best. In fact, such a strategy would be laughable.
But the Leafs lack a defensive forward of the elite variety and I strongly urge them to attempt to acquire Nino Niederreitter, who is the league’s best defensive winger. If you get him, you can play him with one of the elite centres and quell most of your defensive worries. Remember, Marian Hossa, the NHL’s former best defensive winger went to five Stanley Cup Finals.
But that only helps a bit. The Blue-Line needs sevre work.
It’s funny, Justin Faulk keeps linked to the Leafs. but that is insane and will never happen. What the Leafs need – short of somehow finding their own Seth Jones – is a Chris Tanev/ Mark Psysk type player who is defensively sound.
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Get one of those guys, sign Cody Franson and make sure Connor Carrick plays every night, and suddenly you’re talking about the most defensively reliable right-side D in the NHL. I’m not going to defend Franson any more, his stats speak for themselves and his exile from the NHL makes absolutely no sense. He would be free to add and provide 10 x the value of Ron Hainsey, if not more.
Anyway you look at it, the Toronto Maple Leafs can’t go into the season with this current roster. You don’t buy a Ferrari and then strap a canoe to the roof, and you don’t sign John Tavares just to trot Ron Hainsey back out there.