Toronto Maple Leafs: the Ron Hainsey Problem
By James Tanner
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a problem.
Last season, Ron Hainsey skated 17:06 minutes per game 5v5, tied for third on the Toronto Maple Leafs. He was paired with Morgan Rielly almost exclusively on what was, by ice time, the Leafs second pairing.
On the penalty-kill, Hainsey played more than double the Leafs next most used defenseman.
Neither of these things can be allowed to occur anymore because Ron Hainsey is in a steep decline. Hainsey will turn 38 this year, the final year of a two-year deal he signed last year that comes with a $3 million dollar cap hit.
While Hainsey is good on the PK, teams score at roughly 20% on the PP and who you put out there to maintain the league average is not nearly as important as who you play for the other 17 minutes 5v5.
Therefore, when it comes to Hainsey, there’s only one thing we care about: is he effective at even-strength? The answer is a resounding NO.
Together, Hainsey and Rielly had a 49% CF (Average).
Hainsey, without Rielly, was a 41% player (Extremely Bad).
Rielly, without Hainsey, was a 56% player (Elite).
It’s beyond clear that the Leafs need to find a new partner for Morgan Rielly.
What to do?
An NHL team with their sights on a Stanley Cup simply cannot dress a 38 year old defenseman on one of their top pairings and expect to pull it off.
If you look at the Leafs defense, there is simply no way the team can afford to enter the season as currently constituted. The left side – Gardiner, Rielly and Dermott – is great. The right side – Hainsey, Carrick, Zaitsev – needs work.
It’s obvious that, barring a blockbuster featuring Travis Dermott, the Leafs need to upgrade on the right side. Zaitsev can’t be written off just yet, and he’s signed for seven years. You have to assume that contract is currently unmovable. Carrick may lack offense, but he’s the Leafs best defensive defenseman, by a mile, and for a team that gives up the amount of shots that the Leafs do, you have to figure he’s a lock to play every night.
That leaves Hainsey as the obvious choice to upgrade. As I wrote before, you could send him to Robidas Island. Or, you could make him the #7, and let him play every few games. ]
But then you’d lose his leadership, his on-ice presence, and, most importantly, his penalty kill. Although those things are cool, they aren’t really great arguments for keeping him in the lineup. An upgrade is preferable; a demotion is tolerable.
Toronto Maple Leafs 2nd Option
A second option is this: Combine Rielly with Gardiner on the top pairing (over their careers, cumulatively, they’ve been elite when paired), move Dermott into the top four and pair him with Carrick (they were excellent together, statistically, last season), then play Hainsey on the fourth line with Zaitsev.
Hainsey goes back to his natural left-side, and you close your eyes and hope they improve on the 37% they put up together last year. (It was a small sample size).
This would allow the Leafs to have a much better top four while buying time to improve the defense. There are 60 odd games before the trade deadline, and you never know who can become available once their team is out of it.
The Toronto Maple Leafs would have more, and likely better, options in March to improve their team than they do now. If they pair Rielly and Gardiner, they could buy themselves some time before upgrading their defense. And, who knows, maybe in those 60 games, Timothy Liljegren or someone else earns their way onto the team and they can solve their problem internally.
Next. Top Ten Prospects. dark
There really is no need to rush, and a third pairing Hainsey is a lot more palatable than a top-four Hainsey. Whatever they decide, last year’s near-top-pairing usage is no longer appropriate.