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Toronto Maple Leafs: Are Stanley Cup Favorites

By James Tanner

TORONTO, ON - JULY 1: John Tavares #91 of the Toronto Maple Leafs, poses with his jersey in the dressing room, after he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs, at the Scotiabank Arena on July 1, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - JULY 1: John Tavares #91 of the Toronto Maple Leafs, poses with his jersey in the dressing room, after he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs, at the Scotiabank Arena on July 1, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are Stanley Cup Favorites.

Not because Vegas says so, but because they have the best team in the NHL.  The Toronto Maple Leafs have the best forwards in the NHL by a mile, one of the best goalies and a very underrated defense.

Oh, and they’re not even close to done.

All respect to Hunter Eitel and the article he wrote yesterday, that I almost didn’t publish. (Kidding, he’s entitled to his views even if they are wrong!)

Now, I can’t guarantee a Stanley Cup – there’s a lot of luck involved and 30 teams fail to win it every year – but if you don’t have the Leafs as favorites, I think you’re nuts.

Realistic Expectations

Now I’ve been very vocal about what people should do with their realistic expectations. I don’t really see the point of following sports and then somehow feeling the need to be realistic about it.  To me it seems like a contradiction.

But, let’s pretend for a second that you’re honestly curious about whether the Leafs have a legit chance to win, finally, or if this is just some kind of Tavares related hype that has gone out of control.

There’s obviously two things you should be aware of when cheering for an NHL team:

  1. The best team doesn’t always win.  This year, the Penguins, Jets and Predators all failed to win the Stanley Cup.
  2. Sometimes, random teams win. The Capitals won the Cup, despite a set of advanced statistics that highly suggested they should have been a borderline playoff team, at best.  The Golden Knights, an expansion team with  two players – Fleury and Karlson – playing at hall of fame levels no one could have predicted and which certainly won’t last.

Deepest Roster

So, even though the Toronto Maple Leafs have the deepest roster in the NHL (Nazem Kadri is one of only 8 centres in the NHL to score 30 goals in both of the past two years, while also being used in somewhat of a ‘shut-down’ role, so if you don’t consider him a #1 Centre, I’m not sure how credible you’re hockey opinions can be) they aren’t guaranteed to win.

But all you can do is give yourself the best chance.

And the Leafs are doing that.  This is the BEST CHANCE THEY WILL EVER HAVE.  Yes, I’m well aware that the roster is young and they’ve got a good chance at being competitive for years and years.  A dynasty is not impossible.

But in the 2018-19 seasons, the Leafs will still have Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews on entry-level contracts.  That means that two of the best players in the NHL have essentially no cap hit.  That means that the Leafs can have roughly $20 million of contracts this year that they can’t have next year.

They’ve got all their first round picks in the future.  They’ve got depth at the goalie, wing and Centre positions.  Currently, according to Cap Friendly, they’ve got $15 million to spend (roughly) before signing Nylander.  But there’s an extra $5 million because they have Nathan Horton’s $5 million which, once they reach the cap limit,  won’t count because he’s injured.

Oh, and when people talk about the Leafs they forget two other things, both of which make them even scarier:

  1. Matthews, Marner and Nylander are still improving.
  2. On defense, no one even factors in Dermott’s improvement or the possibility of Timothy Liljegren making the team, which is a very real possibility considering the Leafs are weak at his position.

So to sum up: the Leafs have three #1 centres.  Two top ten players.  Growth from three players 21 and under all with the potential to be elite.  Arguably the best roster in hockey.  A genius general manager and the ability to add another $20 or so million of value to this roster.

Next: Leafs Roundtable Defense

I can’t guarantee the Stanley Cup, but I would consider anyone who didn’t think the Toronto Maple Leafs were heavy heavy favorites to win it to be either woefully misinformed or drastically pessimistic.

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