Toronto Maple Leafs Countdown to Camp: Frederik Andersen

Countdown to Camp is a series previewing each player under contract to the Toronto Maple Leafs, as well as the team’s unsigned prospects.

What better way to kick off the Countdown to Camp series than a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs starting netminder, Frederik Andersen.

Entering his third season as a Maple Leaf, Andersen’s role with the club is as straightforward as it comes. Appearing in 66 games in each of his first two campaigns in Toronto, Andersen is undoubtedly the starting goaltender.

Though he has posted back-to-back 0.918 save percentages, signs of fatigue have started to show in Andersen’s game. He’s taken a significant workload in his two-year Leafs tenure, and if Cam Talbot‘s 2017-18 season is to tell us anything, the Leafs need to limit Andersen’s game count this time around.

Before we dive into his upcoming season, let’s review what occurred in 2017-18.

Season in Review

In true Frederik Andersen fashion, October was a rough month for the Dane.

After a blistering start against the Winnipeg Jets, where Andersen saved the game in the first period, he faltered to just two quality starts throughout the rest of the month. Included in this rough start was a 0.806 SV% performance against the New Jersey Devils, as well as a 0.842 SV% night versus the Carolina Hurricanes.

Andersen turned things around in November, showing Leafs Nation just what he is capable of. From November 8 through to November 28, Andersen had seven quality starts in eight games. This streak also included back-to-back shutouts.

Throughout the rest of the season, this strong play from the 28-year old would continue. Andersen flirted with a career best save percentage at points over the year but did regress slightly come to the end of the season.

The lone rough patch he faced came in March when Andersen recorded just one quality start in a run of five games.

Through two years in Toronto, Andersen has shown to be a slow starter who finds his way after the season’s first month. His strong play for the bulk of the regular season was very encouraging.

A Rough Ending

Whether it was fatigue or just a bad run of games, Andersen had a very disappointing end to the season. His March and April months were far from stellar, and his performance in the first round was the epitome of an Andersen season.

In the three games Toronto won in the series versus Boston, Andersen posted a 0.933 SV% or higher. In the four they lost, his save percentage was, at best, 0.875.

Andersen’s Game Seven was especially lacklustre, with just a 0.829 SV% with the season on the line. His inconsistency was one of the major factors driving the Leafs first-round exit. But, he did give us this gem from Game Three:

Despite his poor ending, Andersen finished fourth in Vezina voting and 11th in All-Star voting.

Following the Leafs playoff exit, Andersen joined the Danish team at the World Championships, which were being hosted in his hometown of Herning. At the tournament, Andersen appeared in six games, posting a 0.944 SV% and earning goaltender of the tournament honours.

Statistically Speaking

When comparing Andersen to his peers (min. 2000 minutes played), it’s evident he had a top-tier season.

Though his save-percentage (0.918) ranked 11th, Andersen’s expected SV% was worse than all above him, except for Sergei Bobrovsky. As such, his SV% above expected came in at seven, ahead of Vezina finalists Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Taking a deeper dive into his save percentage reveals some interesting qualities regarding Andersen’s season. He ranked 21st in low danger SV%, which matches with the eye test. Andersen has an unfortunate knack for allowing a soft goal, and it shows in how low his LDSV% is relative to the rest of the starters around the league.

Where Andersen really shines is his medium danger SV%, where he ranked second among 2000+ minute goaltenders in 2017-18. Only Mike Smith in Calgary had a better MDSV%, while Marc-Andre Fleury tied Andersen with a 0.935 MDSV%.

Looking at Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA), Andersen’s combination of workload and performance place him in the top five with 22.24 GSAA. Analyzing the data on a per 30 shots faced rate, Andersen only slightly drops to seventh, once again ahead of Vezina finalists Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy.

These totals all came while playing the third most minutes in the NHL and facing the most shots, where he finished first by 136 shots against. These numbers reiterate how intense Andersen’s workload was this past season. It will be vital for the Maple Leafs to dress a backup that Mike Babcock can trust to play more than on back-to-backs alone, as I will address in further detail later on.

Profile

Age: 28

Height: 6-foot-4 / 192 cm

Weight: 229 lbs / 104 kg

NHL Draft: Seventh Round, 187th Overall in 2010 by Carolina
Third Round, 87th Overall in 2012 by Anaheim

Contract

Frederik Andersen has three years remaining on the five-year, $25-million contract he signed with Toronto back on June 20, 2016. He carries a cap hit of $5 million, making him the 16th highest paid netminder in the NHL.

For a third consecutive season, Andersen will not receive a signing bonus, as his contract was a straight salary of $5-million for the first three years of the contract. This will change in years four and five of the deal, where $7-million of the remaining $10-million is paid in signing bonuses.

In addition, Andersen has a modified no-trade clause, where he can submit a list of 10 teams to which he cannot be traded, though I highly doubt this will come into play in 2018-19.

Season Outlook

The main aspect of Frederik Andersen’s game in 2018-19 isn’t even in his control.

Simply put, Andersen needs a trustworthy backup that can take some of his minutes. 66 games and 2200-plus shots against is too much for a goaltender, especially when the team is planning on a deep playoff run.

Whether it’s Garret Sparks, or Curtis McElhinney, or Calvin Pickard, the Toronto Maple Leafs need to ensure they have a backup that Mike Babcock trusts to play more often than on back-to-backs alone. It was evident in the final month and into the playoffs that Andersen was played too often.

Other than the backup situation and his games played, expect more of the same out of Frederik Andersen in 2018-19.

A slow start is expected at this point. While Andersen has struggled out of the gate, a strong bounce-back has followed in each of the past two campaigns. After back-to-back 0.918 SV% seasons, Andersen has set the benchmark for what constitutes as a successful year.

Next: Blueline Targets: Dan Hamhuis

With the starter role in his hands for a third season, it’s up to Andersen to produce top numbers once again.