Toronto Maple Leafs Blueline Targets: Dan Hamhuis
The Toronto Maple Leafs acquiring Dan Hamhuis serves a purpose differing from the targets previously mentioned.
Tobias Enstrom and Brandon Davidson’s hypothetical arrivals carry the asterisk of uncertainty. Best case, either one earns a defined spot in the lineup. Although, as both are left-handed, those odds seem bleak.
Toronto’s left side blueline is cemented for the immediate future. Beginning as a 7th option is the only role available.
Mark Fayne, on the other hand, is a gamble. After spending time in the AHL over his past two seasons, Fayne is a worthwhile redemption project of practically no risk. Extending a chance to a formerly productive RHD may prove worthwhile. Especially when considering how central a role incompetent usage plated in triggering his decline.
Hamhuis is not on the periphery, nor is he a candidate for redemption. Despite his age, 36 come mid-December, he may actually upgrade one particular facet of the blueline.
This facet being whichever one Ron Hainsey happens to play.
Context
It’s no secret Mike Babcock loves himself some Hainsey. Nikita Zaitsev notwithstanding, Hainsey was the lone defenseman with whom Babcock gave consistent PK deployment. And, while the rearguard’s solid play raised eyebrows in the season’s early months, his herculean usage took its inevitable toll.
Whether he’d admit it or not (he would not), Hainsey broke down as the season wore on. This culminated with him entering the postseason running on a tank with the “need gas” light having first flickered on a few hundred miles back.
Partially the result of age and near-impossible minutes, 2017-18 Hainsey left much to be desired. With the Leafs holding a surplus of LHD, all of whom are both younger and more mobile, Hainsey’s $3 million cap hit is redundant at this point.
The team may be blessed with a year’s window of cap space. But, that in-season flexibility lessens quickly once William Nylander lands his new deal.
With the opportunity to simultaneously offload Hainsey’s uncomfortable number and upgrade in the process, would Kyle Dubas pass that up?
Offensive Comparables
If Babcock remains set on employing a minimum of one defender who fits the “reliable grandpa” archetype, Hamhuis is the guy.
Even in his advanced age, the 14-year veteran produced his most recent offensive totals of 24 points, doing so while trapped on an inept Stars blueline. That being said, his numbers only slightly outpace Hainsey, who fell a single point shy with 23.
Still, there’s certainly more to play at here.
Possession
From a possession standpoint, Hamhuis stands a head and shoulders length above.
Not since 2008-2009 has his 5v5 CF/60 fallen in the negative, topping out last year at 50.4%. Hainsey, on the other hand, is a different story. With positive metrics in just 4 of his 11 total seasons, he’s recently coming off his worst effort in nearly a decade. In fact, travelling all the way back to 2009-10 is where you’ll find Hainsey with a worse CF/60, 45.9%, than his 47.0% from 2017-18.
Contrasting this procuction to that of their teammates leaves Hamhuis pacing the field once more.
While he did finish with a negative corsi rel% of -1.2, it’s the first time this particular metric landed Hamhuis in the red. Luck factored itself into the unfavourable result, with Hamhuis falling victim to a well-below-average PDO of 98.8.
Comparing these recent results to 2016-17, when Dallas goaltenders displayed at least fleeting flashes of competence, injuries to Ben Bishop forced Kari Lehtonen between the pipes for extended tours of duty. As the Stars’ new #1, he gifted Hamhuis with an oiSV% of .900.
Yikes.
Such is the hidden kicker from which Hainsey benefited. Playing in front of a bonafide starting netminder in Frederik Andersen is a gift Hamhuis failed to ever receive in Dallas. Naturally, Hainsey’s oiSV% was a sterling .924.
And still, despite a functioning goalie, Hainsey’s -4.5 corsi rel% is among his career worst.
Role
The counterargument for Hainsey is clear.
Yes, his possession totals are far worse than Hamhuis’. But, these are expected dips from a top-pairing option assuming more minutes. Well, not so fast.
Hainsey did indeed average a higher ice time of 21:52 last season, roughly two minutes more than Hamhuis’ 20:11. But, this gap lessens dramatically upon closer inspection.
With 3:59 coming in shorthanded situations, Hainsey’s pace at 5v5 rounded out to 17:45. With Hamhuis assuming the role of a penalty killer as well, his 2:40 mark at 4v5 dropped his even strength pace down to 17:11.
Suddenly, it’s a gap of 34 seconds.
Even the pair’s respective deployment is similar. Identical, in fact, with Hainsey and Hamhuis both beginning 40.4% of their shifts in the offensive zone. That’s a paltry total, as the two were hindered by unfavourable zone starts befitting of reliable D.
With or Without You
Where the two differ most significantly is quality of partner.
With Hainsey benefiting alongside a quasi-number one in Morgan Rielly, Hamhuis found himself tethered to Greg Pateryn. Both are certainly fine defencemen in their own right. Albeit, with one operating in a stratosphere clearly above the other.
Together, Rielly and Hainsey managed a combined CF of 49.39%, respectable considering their repeated task of handling top competition. Delving into their splits apart, however, uncovers which straw stirred the drink.
Without Rielly, Hainsey floundered to a 41.73% CF. Inverting the scenario, Rielly soars to a 56.14%, the highest mark among all Leafs during time sans Hainsey. Shifting focus to the Hamhuis-Pateryn unit, the two, in second pairing minutes, culminated at a 50.11% CF. Again, respectable numbers, emphasized by the caveat of their splits’ lesser variance.
It’s this where the stability of the latter union shines through.
Pateryn’s CF away from Hamhuis dips to 46.10%, a small yet notable distance shy of the 46.48% Hamhuis conjured in identical circumstances.
While Hainsey’s teammates almost unilaterally saw possession numbers spike in their moments free from his presence, Hamhuis garnered the opposite. In fact, 5 of the 8 defencemen who served alongside him in 2017-18 saw their totals dip in time apart.
Naturally, these numbers don’t tell a full story. No single number does.
What they do reveal, however, is the varying influence the two impart upon their surroundings. Hinting to one as a more suitable option than the other.
If the Leafs seek a replacement Hainsey, Hamhuis not does the job, he’s likely an upgrade. Noto to mention, with his mid-July availability to drive down the price, he’s almost guaranteed to be had at a number lower than Hainsey.
Win-win.
Next: Opening Night Predictions
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Stats courtesy of hockeyreferece.com, naturalstatrick.com & foxsports.com