Toronto Maple Leafs: Trade Value Power Rankings
In the realm of the Toronto Maple Leafs media market, trade rumours are the driving currency.
Literal seconds following the news of John Tavares returning home, the conversation shifted immediately to which of Kyle Dubas‘ young stars he’d now be forced into selling.
(The answer is none, as hockey teams are permitted to employ multiple star players)
Still, the rumours never stop.
With the Leafs’ embarking on a return to prominence in the past few years, hypothetical trades have since become an art. Evolving from the mere status of HF Boards chatter, they now comprise an entire industry all of their own. We’ve arrived at the point where, were trade rumours outlawed, job loss in sports media would reach record highs.
So, as a (self-proclaimed) sportswriter, my duty lies in giving the people what they want. Yesterday, I had an idea.
While listening to The Leaf Report Podcast, the show’s intrepidly talented hosting duo – The Athletic’s James Mirtle and Jonas Siegal – put forth an intriguing concept. In the vein of Bill Simmons‘ ranking of NBA player trade value in years past, a similar exercise should be conducted for the Leafs.
That’s exactly what I did.
Below lies my hierarchy, judged from highest to lowest trade value. These rankings are made from a number of factors; age, production, potential, cap hit, etc. To simplify matters, I divided the list into distinct tiers, hoping to provide accurate context.
One last thing of note: this ranking includes only players on the current roster. Prospects like Timothy Liljegren aren’t included.
Enjoy.
The Untouchables
1. Auston Matthews
Is this even necessary?
Regardless of Tavares’ arrival, Matthews is entrenched as this franchise’s central face. A superstar of incomparable pedigree, he wields the dual roles of fearless leader and elite talent.
He’s here forever. Moving on.
2. John Tavares
Like Matthews, Tavares is almost certainly a Leaf for life.
Rather, the factors placing him just barely below are age and contract. By no means am I calling Tavares overpaid. On the contrary, his $11 million AAV is a hometown discount, one which allowed him to return home and become part of something special.
Unfortunately, the reality is we happen to live in the salary cap world. A world where no contract, regardless of signee, is immune from biting you.
For that reason, Tavares lands in second. Albeit a close one.
3. Mitch Marner
Thanks to a number of circumstances, particularly his Canadian heritage, select circles view Marner as the Big Three’s most untouchable asset. Some (bafflingly incomprehensible) outlets even putting him above Matthews.
While that’s frankly ridiculous, Marner is indeed a special talent.
His 130 points in 159 career games land Marner at the pinnacle of his age group. A combination of rapid enthusiasm and transcendent on-ice vision, both of which Marner displays, are seen only in rare circumstances.
Pair that with the clout he’s built performing in hockey’s biggest market and Marner’s trade value nearly tops his sugar intake.
4. William Nylander
Yes, Nylander is untouchable. No, I don’t care if you want him packaged for a top-4 D. Why would Dubas ever do that? Do you want to become Edmonton?
In roughly the same sample size, Nylander’s produced offence at a pace nearly identical to that of Marner. Were his name something local-friendly like William Canada, he’d be idolized in the same fashion as this lists 1-3.
Regardless, Nylander is a 22-year-old possession god with centre ice potential who’s managed 135 points in 185 games. He’s very good.
Everyone shut up.
5. Morgan Rielly
From a production standpoint, I’d argue Rielly doesn’t quite reach untouchable status. But, that’s not what we’re judging here. Trade value is built on a variety of aspects, the majority of which apply to Rielly.
Relatively young? Check. Puck-moving defenceman? That’ll be a check. Signed long-term to a ridiculously team-friendly contract? Uh, check, please!
Were Rielly right-handed, he’d potentially land top-3. Yet, thanks to age, position and cap hit, the services of this 24-year-old veteran command a steep price.
Blockbusters
6. Nazem Kadri
Like Rielly, Kadri checks all the boxes.
Not only a centre, Kadri’s perennial 30-goal threat and terrific shutdown presence pair nicely with his criminally low cap hit. Trading for a player of such calibre, at $4.5 million against the cap no less, can only be done with a massive package.
…I’m aware of how that last part reads.
7. Frederik Andersen
I’m a believer in Andersen. While his play as a Leaf compares most politely to a rollercoaster, the Dane is a driving force behind his team’s success.
With that said, the market for goaltenders today is soft. Like, “Justin Bieber wearing a quasi-diaper threatening to fight someone” soft. Today’s goalie trades are of the rare variety. And, in cases when they actually do happen, the return is generally some mid-round picks and maybe a B-level prospect.
Freddy’s good. But his position hampers his value.
8. Jake Gardiner
Looking at the numbers, there’s not all that much separating Gardiner’s value from Rielly’s.
He’s a D, a phenomenal puck mover, and his $4.05 million cap hit registers as stupidly cheap. Like it or not, however, public perception factors into trade value. And Gardiner’s is currently at an all-time low. Brain farting in game 7 tends to do that to a player.
Still, Gardiner’s offence and fantastic advanced metrics help his case.
9. Travis Dermott
The kid is simply phenomenal.
Not only did Dermott tread water upon dropping into the NHL at 20-years-old, he thrived, injecting the Leafs’ blueline with mobility and skill they sorely needed. Still only 21, he’s primed for a big year, projecting himself as a back-end pillar for the future.
What places Dermott’s value below Gardiner’s is both handedness and lack of experience.
In choosing between the two, teams may side with Gardiner and his tangible resume of Gardiner rather than the mystery box of Dermott. It’s dumb. But so are most GM’s.
The Brown, Bracco and a Second Tier
10. Kasperi Kapanen
We’re now entering the “throw-in” phase.
Kapanen is a wonderful talent. As the lineup’s fastest player, his proficiency on both the penalty kill and off the rush are terrific weapons in the Leafs’ arsenal. Not to mention, the former-first-rounder carries with him AHL point-per-game pedigree to boot.
Alas, like most who occupy this tier, Kapanen is a winger. Most teams have those in bulk, driving the value of non-superstar perimeter players decidedly down.
Kapanen paces this tier thanks in part to his speed, pedigree and two-way ability.
11. Andreas Johnsson
Johnsson’s value is a cohesion of Dermott and Kapanen.
Suffering from the value deductions coming as a winger, his 9 total games of NHL experience are just too few to confidently bet on. What Johnsson does possess is ability on both special teams units. Not only an effective penalty killer, he’s a power play threat as well.
Give him a full year, and Johnsson won’t stay in this tier for long.
12. Zach Hyman
Thanks to his time alongside Matthews and Nylander, Hyman’s value is inflated by surprisingly high offensive production.
An effective force in his own right, Hyman has proven capable of hanging with top-line talent, something teams find of value. His ability to assume any role required of him, coupled with the reasonable cap hit he earns to do so, land him slightly above his similar archetypes.
13. Connor Brown
Read Hyman, but without the top-line pedigree.
Brown is a former-20-goal-scorer, a fine defensive contributor and appears willing to put team success over that of his own. Still, he’s a depth winger coming off a 14-goal output.
His value sits lower than fans may think.
The Meh Tier
14. Patrick Marleau
Is Marleau a fantastic player? ABsolutely. Are his unwaveringly consistent offensive production and physical durability a marvel to the human body in his advanced age? No doubt.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t override that Marleau finds himself flirting with 40, counting $6.5 million against the cap in the process. The bonus structure of his deal for next season may rocket him up this list when the time comes.
But for now, he’s on the lower end of the spectrum.
15. Nikita Zaitsev
Thanks to his bad contract and putrid recent results, Zaitsev isn’t exactly valued as a trade chip.
And yet, the NHL is built on unpredictability. Zaitsev is right-handed, a surefire benefit, and GM’s may opt to view his rookie season as a glimpse of what’s to come. Not to mention, he may, in fact, be in for a rebound.
Fingers crossed!
16. Connor Carrick
Carrick’s right shot does bulk of the work to help his trade value.
After failing to hold down a consistent spot in the lineup, Carrick isn’t in high demand. A strong year can change that. Which could be in the cards, as Dubas seems willing to afford Carrick the necessary chance.
Until he actually achieves this redemption, Carrick’s value is mediocre at best.
The No Value Tier
17. Ron Hainsey
With horrific advanced numbers and only a few years from senior discount eligibility, no one’s lining up for Hainsey.
That being said, he’s a capable penalty killer who logged top-pairing minutes just last season. If he’s not used to the point of spontaneous combustion, he tops out as a decent third-pair option.
Although, his left shot doesn’t help things either.
18. Curtis McElhinney
Everything said about Andersen can be repeated for McElhinney, with the added kicker of age and lack of prior results.
McElhinney’s value is currently at its peak. Which, when you really get down to it, isn’t saying much. He’s a 36-year-old career back up with a half season’s worth of average production.
In a down goalie market, he won’t fetch much.
19. Josh Leivo
He doesn’t exist. Teams tend to shy away from trading for imaginary players. If someone, anyone, can prove Leivo is a real, functioning human being, his value may soar.
Good luck.
The Fence Sitters
20. Justin Holl, Martin Marincin, Andreas Borgman
None of these players holds the necessary experience to command much in a trade. With each fighting for a spot in training camp, their respective values will materialize when the dust inevitably settles.
Until then, they’re practically unquantifiable.
Next: Toronto Maple Leafs Blueline Targets: Dan Hamhuis
Thanks for reading!