Toronto Maple Leafs: Opening Night Lineup Predictions

FIRST LINE: Zach Hyman – John Tavares – Mitch Marner

Let me make this clear right off the bat. I don’t think the Maple Leafs are going to have a consistent first line. Their top two lines are both elite and really, neither Tavares nor Matthews should be getting second line minutes, so I think they’re going to be used in a 1A/1B format instead of in first line/second fashion. But I’m just choosing to analyse this line first.

Mike Babcock said yesterday that he envisions Matthews paired with Nylander and Tavares paired with Marner. And if he sticks to that narrative, then that will make for an absolutely deadly pairing of Tavares and Marner.

Marner was supposedly featured in the promotional video that the Maple Leafs showed to Tavares in their meeting. He also reached out to Tavares personally to encourage him to sign in Toronto, and welcomed him to the team via Twitter. Marner spent the majority of his first two seasons alongside of  Tyler Bozak and still put up elite totals. Put him alongside of an elite scorer like Tavares, and the sky’s the limit for Marner’s potential. While Zach Hyman isn’t necessarily an offensive guru, he plays a Chris Kunitz-type of game and he’s slowly finding a solid offensive game. This will be a very, very good line for the Maple Leafs.

SECOND LINE: Patrick Marleau – Auston Matthews – William Nylander

Again, this isn’t necessarily the second line. I don’t know how Babcock will be running his lines, but I have a strong suspicion that he won’t be subjecting either Matthews or Tavares to second line minutes.

Anyways, this line features the same dreamy combination of Matthews and Nylander. Only this year, they would be finding themselves with a new left wing in Patrick Marleau. Marleau is a veteran who matched if not exceeded expectations last year. He hasn’t lost his speed yet and he still managed to put up 27 goals last season.

We all know what Matthews and Nylander are capable of, and Marleau will only add extra offense to that line. It’s incredible to think about the fact that the Leafs essentially have two first-line calibre lines.

THIRD LINE: Andreas Johnsson – Nazem Kadri – Kasperi Kapanen

Speed, speed, and more speed. That’s what we’ll be seeing out of this line.

Oh and hey, let’s take a minute to talk about the fact that the Maple Leafs have THREE 30 GOAL SCORERS DOWN THE MIDDLE.

I can’t wrap my head around that. Matthews has been a thirty-plus goal scorer in each of his two first NHL seasons (despite missing 20 games). We all know the type of game Tavares plays, and now Kadri has found a goal scoring groove and has put up over thirty goals in each of the last two seasons.

Also, this is what I always tell Leaf fans who are anxious about losing JVR’s goal scoring touch. The Toronto Maple Leafs have guys to replace JVR. Andreas Johnsson put up 54 points in 54 AHL games and then followed that up with 24 points in 16 games during their Calder Cup run.

He’s more than ready for a full-time NHL role, meanwhile Kasperi Kapanen has been scratching the surface for the past three years. Kapanen has shown the tools to be a good scorer in the NHL, but he’s rarely played higher than the fourth line.

This season is looking like the one where he finally gets a permanent role on the team, and him and Johnsson will look to replace Leo Komarov and JVR respectively. Fair trade off, no?

FOURTH LINE: Josh Leivo – Par Lindholm – Connor Brown

Remember the days when every team’s fourth line was loaded with enforcers? Those days are no more.

Connor Brown scored twenty goals in 2016-17. While he took a step back last year, the fact that a player of his calibre is on the Leafs’ fourth line just goes to show how incredible their offensive depth is. Mike Babcock made it sound like overseas signing Par Lindholm would fill the gap on the fourth line after a very successful SHL season that saw him put up 47 points in 49 games for Skelleftea AIK of the SHL.

Meanwhile on the left side, I think this is the year Josh Leivo gets his shot as a full time Leaf. He’s another one of those guys who hasn’t been able to maintain a consistent roster spot in the NHL despite impressing in several of his short stints. Unless somebody like Josh Jooris or Adam Cracknell comes out and impresses in training camp, I think this is Leivo’s chance to lose.

Of course nothing is written in stone and the Leafs could still acquire more players or make some trades.

DEFENSE

FIRST PAIRING: Morgan Rielly – Ron Hainsey

No changes on the top pairing here. For Now. If the Leafs really want to become Cup Contenders they are going to have to do a heck of a lot better than Ron Hainsey on the first pairing. Rielly’s stats improved across the board last season whenever he got away from Hainsey and it’s imperative that the Leafs improve in this position.

If the roster stays as is, however, this is likely what you’ll see.

Rielly enjoyed a successful breakout campaign last year that saw him put up 52 points through 76 games. Hainsey meanwhile started the season off strong but started to falter towards the end. He’s still solid defensively however and will likely be utilized a ton on the penalty kill.

SECOND PAIRING: Jake Gardiner – Connor Carrick

I know for a fact that the majority of Leaf fans will be punching walls when they see this pairing, but like it or not Leafs nation, Gardiner is likely here to stay. Fans have an inflated hate for Gardiner after a costly mistake in game seven of their series against the Boston Bruins, but you can’t ignore the fact that he put up 52 points from the back end, while putting up statistics that say he is excellent at defense.

Connor Carrick meanwhile will look to finally get his shot as a full time Leaf this year after constantly being benched in favour of Roman Polak last season. Polak signed in Dallas yesterday, so unless somebody else comes out in training camp and plays their way onto the team, Carrick will likely find himself on Gardiner’s right side.

THIRD PAIRING: Travis Dermott – Nikita Zaitsev

Dermott came up midway through last season and immediately became a fan favourite and made a name for himself with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He never looked out of place both on the offensive and defensive side of the game, so he will undoubtedly secure a full time spot on the back end this year.

Zaitsev, meanwhile, will look to rebound after a bad 2017-18 campaign. The Leafs locked Zaitsev up for seven years last offseason so the hope is that Zaitsev suffered a sophomore slump and will be back to regular form this year.

STARTING GOALTENDER: Frederik Andersen

Water is wet. The sky is blue. Frederik Andersen will be the starting goalie. There you go, three blatantly obvious statements.

BACKUP GOALTENDER: Garret Sparks

This is where it gets tricky. The Maple Leafs have two AHL goalies who are both ready to make the jump to the NHL in Sparks and Calvin Pickard. Word is that Kyle Dubas is fielding calls on both Sparks and Pickard, so if he were to trade one of them it’s likely he would garner more interest from Pickard just because he has more NHL experience. But then again, it’s full of question. Maybe the Toronto Maple Leafs bring back Curtis McElhinney for another season. It’s really hard to say.

If you actually took time to read through each analysis of each line or pairing, then I applaud you. If not, then here’s the shortened version of my projected lineup.

Zach Hyman – John Tavares – Mitch Marner
Patrick Marleau – Auston Matthews – William Nylander
Andreas Johnsson – Nazem Kadri – Kasperi Kapanen
Josh Leivo – Par Lindholm – Connor Brown

Morgan Rielly – Ron Hainsey
Jake Gardiner – Connor Carrick
Travis Dermott – Nikita Zaitsev

Frederik Andersen
Garret Sparks

Keep in mind the fact that this is an early prediction. The Toronto Maple Leafs could very well sign another depth defenseman or a fourth liner that will take a spot from Leivo or Lindholm. There’s no way of knowing what they’ll do, so this lineup is based on the Leafs’ current roster.

Next: Evaluating Every Players the Leafs Drafted in 2018

Thanks for reading.

Stats naturalstattrick.com