Will the Toronto Maple Leafs emerge as winners of the John Tavares Sweepstakes?
Such is the question the entirety of the hockey world happens to be asking right now.
And, to be fair, it’s a legitimate one. This isn’t your typical example of the “biased Toronto media” crafting rumours of every star player joining the Leafs. No, a legitimate connection exists between Tavares and this organization.
For Leafs fans, this is undoubtedly exciting. Even more so lately. While speculation had already been firing at a fever pitch since the season’s end, we’ve now hit the mother load.
Yesterday, one single tweet launched the rumour mill straight into the stratosphere.
Boom. Just like that, the prospect of Tavares in Leafs blue inches closer to reality.
Which brings us to another instalment of Canada’s most popular recurring series (don’t look that up), What Do You Think? If you’re new here, I’ll explain how this works.
Each week I identify a piece of developing news regarding the Leafs. After providing my brief take on it, I’ll throw it over to you, our loyal readers. Give me your take in the comments below and you could be featured in the follow-up post later in the week!
Everyone good on the rules? Great, let’s dive in.
My Take
Straight up, the Leafs cannot afford to keep all of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner if they on snagging Tavares at market value.
Matthews’ next deal will come out to a bare minimum of Jack Eichel money at $10.5 million. And, even with both of Marner and Nylander’s deals still up in the air, they’ll at the very least command an AAV upwards of $6 million. Ink Tavares at $11 million per, and that’s a grand total $33.5 million of cap space tied up in 4 roster players.
Yeah, not happening. Which is why the “creative proposals” aspect of the tweet above is my primary focus.
Kyle Dubas is a smart guy. Like, a really smart guy. I interviewed him in a scrum for roughly 20 minutes during Saturday’s locker clean out availability and they place amongst the most insightful 20 minutes of my entire life.
There is simply no way that Dubas hasn’t been burning the midnight oil with Brandon Pridham for weeks now, concocting a plethora of CBA circumventing trickery for this exact purpose.
If anyone can find a way to do make it happen, it’s Dubas. So, what could that trickery look like?
Well, the Leafs are currently blessed with a very brief window of copious cap space. A window which vanishes once the Big Three sign lucrative extensions.
This brevity clears an avenue to get creative. So, let’s get freaky.
Risky Business
If I were Dubas, which should first establish that I am not, there’s one specific route I’d take.
That being, initially handing Tavares a one-year deal at league maximum salary, roughly $16 million. Only, there’s a caveat. The deal is accompanied by a handshake agreement between Tavares and Dubas for an 8-year extension at $8 million per to be signed once this initial deal expires the following summer.
Let’s say the going rate for Tavares on the market is currently 7 years at $11 million per. That equates to a cumulative salary of $77 million. Not a bad payday at all.
Now, were Tavares to accept Toronto’s offer, he’d not only receive the $64 million in total salary from his extension, but the additional $16 million lump sum courtesy of his initial one-year flier as well.
When all’s said and done, Toronto’s offer puts $80 million in Johnny T’s pockets. And, if my math is correct, that’s a $3 million bump upwards from if he traversed free agency’s conventional route.
Durability
Yes, I’m aware that operating on “handshake agreements” is a risky play in a business as constantly evolving as hockey.
Circumstances in sports change more frequently than practically any other profession. All it takes is one hit or flukey fall to end a career, evaporating a player’s source of reliable income instantly.
With that said, one look at Tavares’ career history shows that he’s actually proven himself as one of the NHL’s most durable players.
Across his 9 seasons in the league, Tavares has played less than 77 regular season contests only once, courtesy of a knee injury in 2013-14 which limited him to 54. Funnily enough, Tavares suffered that injury while playing for Team Canada at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. Meaning, the only significant ailment Tavares has dealt with since his draft year came during a period when he wasn’t, in fact, playing in the NHL.
In the 4 years to follow, he put up games played totals of 82, 78,77 and 82.
If you were to compile a list of players least likely, based off their total sample size, to suffer a potentially career-ending injury, Tavares is a lock for the top-5.
To you, this may sound like a madman’s incessant shouts into the void. But, it might be just crazy enough to work.
What Do You Think?
But, no one cares what I think. What Do You Think?
Next: The Marlies are Calder Cup Champions
Comment your take below to be potentially featured in the follow-up piece later this week!