The Odds on the Toronto Maple Leafs Free-Agents Returning
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a number of pending free agents, and with the free agency window opening up in less than two months, they have tough decisions to make.
The Toronto Marlies also house a number of pending free agents as they continue to march through the Calder Cup Playoffs. Because their season hasn’t ended yet, we’ll just focus on the Toronto Maple Leafs for now.
The Leafs have six pending unrestricted free agents, and five of them are forwards. There’s a good chance all five could be gone in September. That will be a huge change. There are also two restricted free agents. It’s four if you count Andreas Johnsson, who finished the season with the Leafs, and Martin Marincin, whose NHL salary is buried in the minors.
Matthews, Marner and Nylander are all due for contract extensions in the next two off-seasons. Although, it is possible that they try to sign all of them this summer. Until those three are locked up, it’s difficult to assess how the Leafs will address their needs since giving big contracts this summer might impact how much you can pay Marner next summer. From a team perspective, it makes sense to sign them sooner than later, but the Players may opt to show what they can do for one more year in order to maximize the value of their contracts.
It’s imperative that the Leafs have to manage their depth players’ contracts in preparation for those monstrous ones. Let’s take a look at the odds we’ll see these free agents back in Toronto this fall.
Leo Komarov, UFA ($2.95 mil/4 years)
I was a little apprehensive when Komarov was signed to this contract four seasons ago. However, he has played up to expectations, and it definitely doesn’t feel like a cumbersome contract. The issue becomes how much of a raise he gets, because he’s definitely due one. Of all the Toronto Maple Leafs UFAs, I believe Komarov has the highest odds to return next season. He’s one of Mike Babcock’s favorites, and he plays a vital depth role for the team. He kills penalties, plays on the powerplay (though I have some questions there), and is a great option to take defensive zone draws when necessary. As for what he ends up making on the new deal, something like $3 million for 2-3 years makes sense. If they can agree to reasonable term, there shouldn’t be a reason why Komarov doesn’t return next season.
Odds to Return: 60%
Dominic Moore, UFA ($1 mil/1 year)
The Toronto Maple Leafs search for a fourth line centre continues, because Moore did not impress Babcock as the season progressed. He barely played any time at all as the regular season wound down. Moore only played Game 6 and 7 in the playoffs, and that was only because the Leafs were trying to shake their lineup to match up better with the Bruins. There are better options out there, whether it’s down with the Marlies or another free agent acquisition. Moore’s second stint with the Leafs didn’t work, and I’d be shocked if he returns next season.
Odds to Return: 5%
James van Riemsdyk, UFA ($4.25 mil/6 years)
This is difficult, because the Leafs simply don’t have an adequate replacement for JVR in house. They’re not going to be able to find another player of his caliber and skillset. It’s so unique. Unfortunately, unless he can be convinced to take a hometown discount, JVR will probably be walking on July 1st. The Leafs can’t afford to keep him, and he could easily get $6 million on the open market. If JVR’s exit interview was any indication, he seems to think that he’s played his last games with the Leafs. I would love it if the Leafs could find a way to keep him, but he deserves to paid more than they can afford to at this point.
Odds to Return: 15%
Tyler Bozak, UFA ($4.2 mil/5 years)
Well, if the Leafs let Bozak go, they’ll have to find a new little good luck charm and marketing strategy, because Kanon will be going with him. (Might I suggest one Linus Komarov?) In all seriousness, although Bozak won’t cost as much to keep as JVR, his days in Toronto appear to be numbered as well. The Leafs finally have enough centre depth to let him go, should they choose to. However, keeping Bozak around could mean they no longer have to search for a fourth-line centre. If they can find a good price, and for the right length, Bozak could be back with the Leafs, but it doesn’t look that way right now.
Odds to Return: 33%
Roman Polak, UFA ($1.1 mil/1 year)
Please, please, please let this be the end of the Polak era in Toronto. I don’t know how much I can take anymore. The entire right side of the blueline needs fixing, and the easiest way to do that is to let Polak walk. Both Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev are still under contract for the foreseeable future. However, Polak remains firmly entrenched in Babcock’s good graces, despite the number of defensive blunders and the fact that almost no one else in the NHL allows so many shots against. it’s really hard to see how the Leafs could justify bringing him back again and playing him over Holl, Liljegren or Carrick.
Odds to Return: 1%
William Nylander, RFA ($894,167/3 years)
There is no question here, Nylander will be back. The only debate is whether he gets a long term deal, or if the Leafs decide to bridge him. If Nylander gets a long term contract, we’re looking at a deals bigger than Nikolaj Ehlers ($6mil/7yrs) or David Pastrnak ($6.66/6yrs). They might be superior players to Nylander, but the price goes up every year. We’ll leave the numbers up to the Leafs to decide, but Nylander will be back in the blue and white in September.
Odds to Return: 98% (While unlikely, he could be traded).
Andreas Johnsson, RFA ($750,833/3 years)
Like Nylander, Johnsson will be back with the Leafs next season. He’s proven that he belongs in the NHL. A prolonged playoff push won’t hurt his experience, either. His next contract will probably be a bridge deal, but it he’ll have plenty of time to prove his long-term future is in Toronto.
Odds to Return: 98%
Connor Carrick, RFA ($750,000/2 years)
As much as I love Carrick, I don’t think he’s a part of the Toronto Maple Leafs future. He spent more time in the press box than on the ice. Had Zaitsev not been injured for two months, he probably would’ve been locked in there permanently. I think the Leafs will still extend him a qualifying offer, just so they don’t lose him as an unrestricted free agent. The plan will probably be to deal him before the season starts. We’ll see whether they do a sign-and-trade, or just trade his rights, but there’s a chance he still starts next season on the active roster.
Alternatively, if Kyle Dubas takes over, the Toronto Maple Leafs may come to appreciate the solid defensive metrics that Carrick brings to the table. He was a much better partner for Gariner than Zaitsev was.
Odds to Return: 50%
All contract information is from CapFriendly.