Analyzing Babcock’s 3rd Season with the Toronto Maple Leafs
Johnsson vs Komarov
Andreas Johnsson has been excellent since he joined the team a few weeks ago. His speed and ability to puck hunt has really helped the fourth line. Most importantly, giving that line another puck handler has helped the fourth line with zone entries and exits, two things that are extremely important in the playoffs. In addition, Johnsson’s contribution to the powerplay in the “hole” position is crucial. This powerplay needs a player who can pick up loose pucks and tip them on goal, similar to what Kadri does. Johnsson does this very well and could add another threat to a stale second powerplay unit.
Leo Komarov brings something different to the game. He brings elements that are hard to find on the Toronto Maple Leafs, making his presence almost irreplaceable for Babcock. His gritty play perfectly falls in line with the stereotypical “playoff hockey” mold. Earlier in the season, fans gave Babcock a hard time for playing Komarov in extended and important minutes. Since then, Komarov has been demoted to the fourth line and his 5v5 TOI have been cut. This demotion has been good to him as he looks a lot more energetic with less minutes to play.
Conclusion
I think Johnsson will get a few playoff games under his belt this season even though Komarov will play game one. Personally, I would dress Komarov at home, where Babcock can control matchups and get Matthews away from Bergeron using both the Kadri and Plekanec lines. Furthermore, Johnsson should play away games. Chances are it will be the Matthews vs. Bergeron line and the Kadri vs. Krejci line. Including Johnsson allows the Leafs to overpower the Bruins bottom six forwards.
Finally, when Komarov is dressed, his minutes should be limited to defensive zone starts and on the penalty kill. If Komarov is used in this way, the Leafs lineup is very good. Babcock should refrain from using Komarov on the powerplay like he has recently.
Matt Martin
You really have to give Babcock credit on this one. Clearly, scratching Matt Martin was not something he wanted to do. The Leafs management has clearly been into analytics, with a skill over toughness philosophy, since Brendan Shanahan came on board. Mike Babcock’s coaching history is the opposite.
Despite that, the Leafs hired him anyways, and there’s been some give and take ever since. The addition of Martin was seen as a fine one as long as the Leafs didn’t have the skilled players to push him out of the lineup. The rebuild went faster than anyone could have predicted and suddenly there was a lot of people wondering why Martin was playing over obviously effective players like Kasperi Kapanen or Josh Leivo.
This was a move Babcock was reluctant to make, but there’s no doubt that since Martin was sidelined and Marner was put with Kadri and Kapanen was made a regular, that the Leafs are a much better team. You have to give Babcock the credit here since it was a move that clearly goes against his preferences, but which he made anyways.
The willingness to adapt to the times is an underrated part of what makes greatness happen, and despite his reputation, hardheadedness and not adapting and compromise was the previous Babcock trademark. By showing he can change and grow with the game Babcock becomes an even better coach and the Leafs an even better team.
Roman Polak
Similar to Komarov, Polak brings a physical presence that the Leafs clearly lack. When comparing to last season, Polak’s shot attempt differential has remained somewhat constant. In addition, Polak received a lot of praise from Babcock last year regarding his ability to keep opponents away from high danger scoring areas.
Last season, Polak finished 2nd in goal differential behind Jake Gardiner, something that is pretty impressive given his zone starts. In general, goals are fairly random and don’t predict the future. Polak allowed a ton of shots and many people who view the game through the prism of analytics correctly predicted his positive goal differential was a fluke based on the goalie happening to have a high save percentage when he was on the ice.
This season Polak ranks last in goal differential and is the only defensemen (when on the ice) where the Leafs are being outscored. The level of competition that Polak is facing has also dropped as he ranks 5th amongst Leafs defensemen in TOI Quality of Competition%. He is also among the league leaders in shots allowed per hour despite playing inferior competition.
Polak’s injury could have a lot to do with this. He has looked even slower and less confident on the puck this year. Polak usually “plays it safe” by clearing the puck off the boards, which limits his teams ability to keep possession of the puck, but it also keeps his “turnover” numbers low.
Conclusion:
Babcock has been stubborn when it comes to playing Polak. The numbers just do not justify dressing Polak in the playoffs. Connor Carrick has been one of the Leafs best defensive defenseman this year and choosing physicality over the ability to limit shots could cost the Leafs. Polak will continue to allow too many shots and take too many penalties to be effective especially against a team that can play fast-paced playoff hockey like the Boston Bruins.
Matthews, Marner and Nylander
The series against the Bruins is going to put the Leafs best three players to the ultimate test. As the season has gone on, Babcock has increased the ice time for the Leafs’ stars and this should continue into the playoffs.
The line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak has been one of the league’s best this year and will have full responsibility of outshining Auston Matthews and William Nylander when the series is at TD Garden. Matthews is no stranger to playing against the league’s best competition when on the road, where he is top five in the league in TOI quality of competition%. This series he will be asked to produce against arguably the league’s best defensive forward Patrice Bergeron, someone who prides himself on his ability to drive possession in all three zones.
Conclusion:
Mitch Marner has to be the Toronto Maple Leafs’ best player in this series. While Matthews and Nylander need to be excellent as well, their production could be halted due to their elite competition. Last year Mitch Marner’s controlled zone entry totals went down in the playoffs. His line dumped the puck in far more, and as a result, were less successful. This year Marner should look to enhance his game rather than changing it to be successful against a tight-checking Bruins squad.
The playoffs will decide the success of Babcock’s season
In conclusion, this is a huge playoffs for Mike Babcock. Throughout this year he has received a lot of criticism regarding his lineup decisions and player deployment. While I still think Babcock is one of the best in the league at controlling zone starts and managing matchups, his player selection has been questionable throughout the season, to say the least. This playoff series will tell everyone whether those questionable decisions were useless or part of the larger plan.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have the tools necessary to beat the Bruins and the mastermind behind player deployment, Mike Babcock, needs to be at his best.
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