Will These 5 Prospects Earn Contracts with the Maple Leafs?

As junior, collegiate, and European seasons edge towards the postseason, more and more pressure is being put on five Toronto Maple Leafs prospects.

Time is running out for Nolan Vesey, Pierre Engvall, Keaton Middleton, Vladimir Bobylyov, and Nicolas Mattinen. These five prospects find themselves with just months remaining to earn an entry-level contract before their exclusive rights with the Toronto Maple Leafs expire.

As their seasons slowly dwindle away, let’s break down each prospects case to receive an ELC, and who you should keep an eye on in the last couple months of the junior, collegiate, and European seasons.

Nolan Vesey

LW, 22, 158th (Round Six) in 2014

Maine Black Bears (H-East): 37 games, 11 goals, 25 points

Nolan Vesey is the only player on this list whose season is already done. The Maine Black Bears fell to the Providence Friars last Saturday, losing the three-game series 2-0.

After being one of the bottom feeders in the Hockey East conference for the first three years of Vesey’s collegiate career, Maine improved to finish in a tie for fifth this season. Even on a team that was as poor as the Black Bears have been, Vesey’s production has still left a lot to be asked for.

Although he had a promising freshman year, posting 23 points, Vesey’s point total completely bottomed out in his sophomore season. With just 11 points in his second NCAA year, Vesey needed to bounce back significantly in his junior and senior campaigns to even be considered for an ELC.

Though he improved to hit 23 points again in his junior year and a career-high 25 as a senior, Vesey just hasn’t done enough to warrant an NHL contract.

A couple of seasons ago, the Leafs didn’t give Minnesota-Duluth standout Tony Cameranesi an entry-level deal. After posting a point-per-game senior year, Toronto opted to sign the undersized forward to an AHL contract rather than take up an SPC spot.

Cameranesi also played in a tougher conference in the NCHC, making it even more glaring that Vesey just doesn’t have a shot at an ELC.

Keaton Middleton

Saginaw Spirit (OHL): 60 games, 4 goals, 23 points

A criticized selection even at the time, Keaton Middleton’s time to win over the crowd is quickly coming to a close. MIddleton is a defenseman selected in the fourth round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, 101st overall.  He is currently 20 years old.  The criticism when he was selected came from the belief that the Leafs were going too old-school by selected a player for his size and not his skill.

Middleton is a hulking blueliner, listed at 6-foot-5 and 234 pounds, who doesn’t score all that often. The native of Stratford only scored seven points (!) in his draft year, yet was still taken in the fourth round by Mark Hunter and co.

Since the draft, Middleton has been named the captain of the Saginaw Spirit and has slightly improved his scoring. Though he had 18 points last year and 23 in 2017-18, Keaton Middleton still hasn’t found the scoresheet enough to show that he will have any chance of playing in the NHL.  Even if he is effective without scoring, the NHL doesn’t treat good defensive players with zero offensive skills very well, due probably to the fact that you only tend to notice these types of players when they make mistakes.  For an example, see Martin Marincin – statistically he is a very, very effective player, but his inability to provide any offense has rendered him an NHL non-entity.

Much has been said about Middleton’s leadership qualities and intangibles. Add in the fact that he was taken in the fourth round, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him stay in the organization on an AHL contract to give him a couple more years to develop.

Vladimir Bobylyov

Tolpar Ufa (MHL): 18 games, 8 goals, 18 points

Vladimir Bobylyov will not be in the Toronto Maple Leafs organization next season. A fifth round pick, 133nd overall, Bobylyvov was drafted in 2016 and is 20 years old.

Bobylyov is the only prospect on this list where it would be a shock to see him even get an AHL contract. Since his draft, the Russian power forward has stagnated and shown little to no signs of improvement.

He signed in the KHL after the draft but was sent down to the VHL after lacklustre play. Bobylyov subsequently rejoined the Victoria Royals to finish the year.

Even after playing against men all year, Bobylyov returned to the WHL and scored at almost the exact same rate (0.93 PPG in 15/16, 0.94 PPG in 16/17). The only difference was that he scored just nine goals in 38 games in his second year with Victoria, compared to 28 in 72 the year previous.

So, after this disappointing Draft +1 season, Bobylyov was already behind the proverbial eight ball heading into this final year. The Leafs were looking for him to play pro in North America this year, being sent to Marlies camp upon being cut from the main camp. Bobylyov didn’t show enough to stay in the AHL and was assigned to the Orlando Solar Bears’ camp, where he played in the preseason.

Rather than sticking around in the ECHL, Bobylyov opted to go back to Russia, basically ending his tenure in the Leafs organization. His totals this season haven’t even been impressive either. Bobylyov played just three games in the KHL and 11 in the VHL, where he scored just one assist. As an older prospect in the MHL (Russia’s junior league), Bobylyov has played at a point-per-game pace. Given his age, however, it is of little significance.

The Leafs swung and missed on this fifth rounder.

Nicolas Mattinen

RD, 20, 179th (Round Six) in 2016

Flint/Hamilton (OHL): 61 games, 7 goals, 29 points

As I talked about earlier, the Leafs took a controversial chance on Keaton Middleton in the fourth round back in 2016 that hasn’t panned out. Mattinen was a 6th round pick in 2016 and is a 20 year old defenseman.

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Toronto’s sixth-round pick in that draft, Nicolas Mattinen, is of a similar mold and has likely passed Middleton on the prospect depth chart. But is it enough to receive an ELC?

After two years buried on a deep London Knights blueline, Mattinen was dealt to the Flint Firebirds at the beginning of the OHL year. With the Firebirds, he received first pairing minutes, where he was able to finally show his abilities in the OHL.

In no time, it was clear Mattinen was able to score at a better rate than his career high 10 points. He had 22 points in 38 games with Flint before being traded to Hamilton at the OHL trade deadline, where he has taken a depth role once again.

Since the trade, Mattinen has just seven points in 23 games. While his point totals still don’t seem to warrant an ELC, he definitely has shown more offensive capabilities than Keaton Middleton. In fact, Mattinen is ninth in OHL shot production from blueliners. His role as a shutdown defender and his ability to get pucks on net could interest the Leafs going forward past this final year, but I doubt it results in an ELC.

One Other Option

While Pierre Engvall is the only prospect on this list worthy of an ELC, in my opinion, Toronto could still look to keep some of these prospects in the organization by signing them to AHL contracts.

The Leafs have already done this with J.J. Piccinich and Martins Dzierkals (though Toronto still holds exclusive rights to both players). In signing these two to AHL contracts, the duo has been able to play against tougher competition in the ECHL and have the benefit of access to Maple Leafs resources at all times.

Add in the fact that the Maple Leafs are getting a new ECHL affiliate in St. John’s next year with more NHL influence, it seems likely a least one of these prospects could wind up on an AHL deal to continue developing in the Leafs organization.

Next: Why Not Call Up Liljegren Instead?

As the final weeks of these players seasons chip away, however, they will be playing their final games auditioning for an NHL contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs.