Toronto Maple Leafs Philosophy @ Trade Deadline
James Tanner
The Toronto Maple Leafs have got to buy. In the NHL, you don’t need to be ‘the best team in the league’ to have a chance to win the Stanley Cup. Very few President’s Trophy winners double up and win the Cup too. A seven game playoff series features massive amounts of randomness and luck, and even if you had true contender status and loaded up at the deadline, there are no guarantees.
There are no guarantees for the future either. Sure, a team with Matthews et. al in their prime and a defense built around Liljegren and Dermott and Rielly sounds amazing, but who knows what’s going to happen? There is a reason that the cliché ‘a bird in hand is worth two in the bush’ is eternal – smart people go for it, and they always have.
The future is easy to idealize, but the present is where you live. If you have an aging team, it makes sense to put all your eggs in one basket, but most of the time, you’ve got to create a balance so that when your risk doesn’t pay off, you aren’t completely screwed. We always approach these things like they are binary, but it’s more complicated in reality. There is no reason the Leafs couldn’t make significant adds without giving away too much of the future.
What to Do?
The Leafs have their three best players on cheap, team-friendly entry-level deals. This is the last year that happens. In the future, when all of those guys are making huge money, the team will have to make hard choices about players like van Riemsdyk, Kadri, Marleau etc.
Right now, the Leafs have incredible depth. Because Marner, Matthews, and Nylander cost basically nothing, the Leafs have the luxury of having players like van Riemsdyk and Bozak on the third line.
They also have cap space that they can use to add even more depth. They’ve got the assets to do it without sacrificing their future or going ‘all in’ for just a single attempt to win.
The risk vs reward for buying heavily now in order to try to win this year is heavily in the favor of going for it. The Leafs have prospects like Andreas Johnson who are NHL ready but who they have no room for, they’ve got all their draft picks and enough in the pipeline that they won’t really miss a lost first rounder or two.
The fact is, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a very unique opportunity to try to win this season. Especially when, statistically, there is almost no reason to favor Tampa or Boston over them.
The Leafs must buy at the deadline and they must go big. Sure they need a fourth line centre, but I am talking a much bigger prize than that. The Leafs need to swing for the fences.
Wilbert Timmermans
The Toronto Maple Leafs should neither buy nor sell at the trade deadline.
There is simply nothing to gain from it, the Toronto Maple Leafs organization is in the midst of a process to become a regular contending team for years to come, why disturb that for a short-time fling?
To me, it’s obvious the Toronto Maple Leafs have two positions that need improvement to push them from contenders to top-contenders. They need a top pairing defenseman to pair with Morgan Rielly and they could use some more depth down the middle.
I hate to break the dream bubble for everyone. Franchise defenseman to pair with Morgan Rielly, don’t get traded. Even if they are, the price is to steep. Giving up the likes of Nylander or Marner for any defensive player is just a horrible idea. These defensemen are acquired through drafting and gathering prospects. Exactly the process the Toronto Maple Leafs have been doing so well the past years, (just look at all the prospects and draft picks from the last years that are on our roster).
There is no reason to diverge from that, not even for the slightest chance of winning one cup this year, they should be in it for the long haul. From the pending UFA on their roster, only James van Riemsdyk is hard to replace. Bozak is already too expensive a player for what he adds to the team and Leo Komarov, whilst being their best defensive forward, is replaceable and could be resigned if his demands aren’t too high. Their needs should mainly be addressed through drafting.
The Leafs shouldn’t sell, but they shouldn’t be buying either.
Mike Stephens
Every trade deadline brings about the same type of fervor.
The Toronto Maple Leafs need a #1 defenceman, everyone speculates about which one they’ll get, it doesn’t happen, and we move on. This year is no different, as everyone from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Drew Doughty and Chris Tanev have been bandied about as potential bait for Lou and Co. to snap up.
Only, this time, the Leafs have something they’ve never possessed before; actual depth. They don’t need a big piece at the deadline because they already have some decent sized in the system already. Instead, I’d make the argument to tinker. Get a decent 4th line centre, maybe a third pairing RHD, and move on from there.
I’ve written about it before, but I would love to see Marcus Kruger in a Leafs uniform after February 26th. Get the Hurricanes to retain some salary, and he’d be a perfect fit for some shutdown minutes heading into a playoff series.
Kruger is used to heavy defensive zone starts while still maintaining an above 50% possession rating and winning the majority of his draws. His role has been muted on the Hurricanes this year, but if he was put in between Leo Komarov and Kasperi Kapanen, you better believe his production would uptick quite nicely.
All in all, the Leafs would be upgrading at their weakest position whole spending minimal assets for a player who could conceivably help them in the long run. Send Dominic Moore the other way, and you have a perfect trade on your hands. The best way for the Leafs to improve at the deadline is to tinker, and Kruger is the perfect starting point.
Jacques Tanneir
I do not think the Leafs should buy, stand pat or tinker!
The Toronto Maple Leafs should be selling. Say what you want, but this team isn’t ready to compete for a Stanley Cup, and so the only thing to do is to continue to accumulate assets.
Leo Komarov can get you back a couple picks, as can Tyler Bozak. Both players will be gone in the summer regardless, so it’s important to get something for them while you can. Even if it’s just a couple third and fourth round picks, those add up. The draft is as numbers game and if you have lots of picks you will eventually hit on a late blooming star.
Same goes for James van Riemsdyke, but double. He’s a star player and he’s a UFA which means a competitive team with some cap room might pay top dollar to add him to the team. He currently doesn’t even make five million, so he’s a bargain.
Since even teams that are in tight against the cap could afford him (and if you move Bozak, you could take on a contract to facilitate it) JVR might bring back much more than people assume. How many super star 30 goal wingers are available? Not many.
The Leafs should make the safe move and sell. Sorry James!
Next: Leafs New Years Resolutions
Conclusion
There you have it. Four options, and good reasons for each one. You can buy like Jimmy, sell like Jacques, stand pat like Wil, or take the cautious approach like Mike.
Feel free to let us know what you’d do and in six days or less you should know for real. Thanks for reading.