Toronto Maple Leafs: Lou Shouldn’t Trade For a Defenseman
By Josh Tessler
Lately, there have been a lot of trade rumors involving the Toronto Maple Leafs acquiring a defenseman.
In my opinion, the Toronto Maple Leafs are better off waiting till July 1st to bring a top defenseman to Toronto.
If you are an avid Editor in Leaf reader, you may call me an oxymoron or a hypocrite as I have advocated for Lamoriello to make a trade in the past. But, I honestly have changed my opinion on the Leafs acquiring another defenseman before the deadline.
Why have I changed my mind?
Talented Pool of Youngsters
It’s pretty simple.
The Leafs group of defenseman is still very much young except for grandpa Ron Hainsey and Roman Polak. The Leafs youngster defensemen, including Andreas Borgman and Connor Carrick, are simply trying to find their groove.
In terms of Carrick, he hasn’t been in the lineup a lot as of late. He hasn’t played since November 24th against the Carolina Hurricanes. He’s got to be in the lineup a bit more consistently before I can make the argument that he’s trash.
Additionally, if Borgman and Carrick don’t live up to Mike Babcock’s expectations. You don’t need to worry. Just look at how much defensive depth that the Leafs have in the minor leagues. Travis Dermott, Justin Holl, Timothy Liljegren and Andrew Nielsen are all having solid seasons for the Marlies and could serve as potential replacements for Borgman down the stretch.
Current Trade Market
If you want another reason why the Leafs shouldn’t make a trade for another defenseman, let’s look at the past few trades involving top defensemen or top defensive prospects.
Just a few days ago, the New Jersey Devils acquired Sami Vatanen and a conditional third round pick from the Anaheim Ducks for Adam Henrique, Joseph Blandisi and a 2018 third round pick.
In early October, the Vancouver Canucks acquired Derrick Pouliot from the Pittsburgh Penguins for Andrey Pedan and a 2018 fourth round pick.
In the summer, there were a number of major trades involving defensemen. On June 24, the New York Islanders traded Travis Hamonic and a conditional fourth round pick to the Calgary Flames for a 2018 first round pick, a 2018 second round pick and a conditional second round pick. Two days later, the Dallas Stars brought Marc Methot to the lone star state from the Vegas Golden Knights for Dylan Ferguson and a 2020 second round pick. On July 1st, the Nashville Predators dealt a 2019 third round pick to the Vegas for Alexei Emelin.
If you just look at some of these trades, you’d see that it’d be quite costly to bring a veteran defenseman to Toronto. If veterans like Alexei Emelin and/or Marc Methot were worth a third round or second round pick, then imagine what a defenseman like Ekman-Larsson would be worth. Personally, I can’t fathom what the Leafs would have to give up to obtain Ekman-Larsson.
If Lou brought Ekman-Larsson or a similar defenseman to Toronto, it would be a mistake. As the Leafs would be giving up a significant amount of young prospect depth.
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I’d rather wait for Liljegren, Nielsen or Dermott to properly develop than to give up the farm for a blue chip defenseman. On the other hand, there are those that believe that there will never be a better time for the Leafs to go for it all. I guess it just depends on your tolerance for risk.
Wouldn’t Ian Cole Be Cheap?
If you compare Cole to a defenseman like Methot, you’ll see that from a statistic perspective they are pretty much equal. This season, Cole’s corsi-for percentage is at 45.5 percent and Methot’s corsi-for percentage is at 43.8 percent.
So, if Jim Rutherford, the General Manager of the Pittsburgh Penguins is doing his homework. You can expect that he’ll want a similar return to what the Vegas Golden Knights received for Marc Methot.
Free Agent Options
If I were in Lou’s shoes and I was itching to bring another defenseman to Toronto, I’d wait till free agency kicks off in July.
Quite a bit of high-caliber defensemen are set to hit the market on July 1, 2018 including John Carlson, Erik Gudbranson, Calvin De Haan, Jack Johnson, Thomas Hickey and Mike Green.
The best part is the Leafs wouldn’t have to give up a single rostered player or prospect in order to strengthen their blue line.
Additionally if the Leafs wait till July, it also allows Lou to take the time and truly evaluate his defensive depth.
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Who knows? Borgman, Carrick, Dermott or Nielsen could really blossom and become a solid defensive option for the Leafs. If one of them emerges, Lou wouldn’t have to acquire anyone and potential stunt his defensive prospects’ growth.