Toronto Maple Leafs: Ekman-Larsson Is a Bad Idea

TSN Insider Bob Mackenzie says that there is “No Reason” to believe Toronto Maple Leafs and Coyotes are talking trade.

The Coyotes recently set an NHL record by going 20 straight games to start a season without a regulation win.  Since they’re the NHL’s worst team, their best player is in his prime, has a very tradable contract, and they’re already eliminated from playoff contention, it makes sense that other teams would covet Oliver Ekman-Larsson.  The Toronto Maple Leafs  would likely at least be somewhat interested if OEL was available.

This is  a tasty rumour, and one people have been talking about for months, but it makes no sense for the Leafs.  For one, the cost would be crazy.  There is no reason to think the Coyotes would ever make this trade without getting either Nylander or Marner back in the deal.  For the Leafs, that should make this a non-starter.

With Rielly emerging as one of the best defenseman in the NHL, and with Timothy Liljegren, Travis Dermott, Connor Carrick, Calle Rosen and Andreas Borgman all still young and not yet in their primes (or the NHL) it makes no sense for Toronto to make this type of blockbuster.

It is far smarter for the Leafs to target a lesser top-four player, whose cost would be much less, rather than to go for an elite player.  Ekman-Larsson would be great on the Leafs, but the cost to get him wouldn’t make any sense given that the Leafs don’t need a left-handed defenseman.

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The Only Way it Makes Sense

The only way OEL to the Leafs makes any sense if if the Coyotes were to take Timothy Liljegren as the centrepiece of a deal.  OEL is at an age that will help the Leafs now, and Liljegren probably won’t ever be as good as OEL (he’s a top 10 defenseman) so that would make sense.

Add in a  couple first round picks, maybe Connor Brown and you have a package the Coyotes might consider.  But I still doubt they would.  Without getting a FRANCHISE player back, they wouldn’t be interested, I don’t think.

Additionally, once you have OEL, you don’t need Jake Gardiner, and you still don’t have a top-four right-hander.  And, Ekman-Larsson will need a new contract and you’re now talking about paying a guy in the same range as Marner, Matthews and Nylander, whose contract will come up around the same time.

Final Analysis

Ekman-Larsson is a dream of many Leafs fans.  But the salary doesn’t work.  He’s an upgrade over Gardiner, but once you remove whatever else it takes to get him, you’re not improving the team that much.  The timeline of his contract status makes this infeasible.  And he’s left handed.  And if it takes Taylor Hall to get Adam Larson, it’s just going to cost too much to acquire this player.

The Toronto Maple Leafs would be much smarter to set their target lower, and acquire a right-handed top four player who can push Hainsey down to the third pairing where he belongs.  It just doesn’t make sense to trade for another team’s franchise player when you already have multiple franchise players of your own.  Ones who are much younger.

Next: Marner Needs to Play on Top Line

And any talk of trading Marner for a defenseman is nonsense.  You don’t trade a 20 year old for a 26 year old, even if you think you’re close to winning.