Signing Connor Brown to a long-term deal has to be a priority for the Leafs.
Now that the Leafs have locked up Zach Hyman, their focus should be on signing their other RFA forward, Connor Brown. Brown is a local talent and is coming off his first full NHL season. Brown scored 20 goals and added 16 assists last season. Most of them at even-strength.
Despite being a rookie, he quickly earned Mike Babcock’s trust. His strong two-way game and ability to play up and down the lineup makes him a very useful player.
Unlike Hyman, Brown does not have arbitration rights this summer. This gives the team a bit more control over the negotiations and they should be able to dictate the length of the contract. It is also likely the reason that Hyman was signed first.
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The team’s current cap situation may also be a factor in when this deal actually takes place. The Leafs are currently over the $75 Million cap ceiling for the 2017-2018 season. They are allowed to be 10% over that number until the clock strikes midnight on the night before puck drop. They may be able to free up extra space by moving contracts to the LTIR. This can be slightly confusing and is not something I want to get into in this article.
The Toronto Maple Leafs could make trades to improve their cap situation and might wait until this happens before they finalize a deal with Brown. They do, however, have room to sign Brown today if they want to, while staying within the rules of the CBA.
Connor Brown’s Contract Length
In terms of contract length, there is essentially three ways that things could go:
- A 1-2 year bridge deal that gives the team extra time to determine how good Brown really is and where he fits with the team going forward. This type of contract is usually reserved for players that teams are still unsure of or situations where the team and player are at odds when it comes to the AAV of the contract.
- A 4-6 year deal that would keep Brown with the team until his late 20’s. This is the route that the Leafs took with Hyman and is what I expect Brown to sign. It shows that the team is committed to the player being a part of the organization’s plans moving forward. Teams can also frequently get a lower cap hit by committing to a longer term.
- A long-term deal (7 or 8 years). This type of contract is generally only given out to elite players and signals that the player is a critical piece of the team’s core. I wouldn’t rule this out, but it is unlikely.
Brown is obviously a very talented and effective hockey player. Despite being an important piece, he is not at the same level as Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner or William Nylander. He is a complimentary player on this team and will be paid and signed accordingly.
Cap Comparables
It is difficult to find an exact comparable for Connor Brown. After all, there are not many rookies that score 20 goals and are still considered a complimentary player on their team. Alex Killorn plays a similar role with the Tampa Bay Lightening. He is three years older than Brown, but in his first full NHL season (at 23 years old) he scored 17 goals and added 24 assists. This is the same age and similar production to Brown. Following that season, Killorn signed a two-year bridge deal worth $2,550,000 per season. When that deal expired last summer, the Lightning extended Killorn for seven seasons at $4,450,000 (AAV).
If the Leafs choose to go the route of a bridge deal (1 or 2 years) with Brown you can expect it to be around the $2,500,000-$3,000,000 range per year. Using Killorn as an example, I think this would be a mistake. Killorn’s production has not really increased at all since his bridge deal and he still received a substantial raise. If Brown gets a bridge deal and improves at all, his next contract will be too costly for the Leafs to afford.
How much should Connor Brown get?
The Leafs should sign Connor Brown for 4-6 years to a contract worth $3,500,000-$4,000,000 per season. This is more than he would make on a bridge deal, but ensures that Brown is a member of the Leafs during the majority of his prime. If Brown continues to produce at around the same rate as last season this is not a disastrous contract. It is also a very tradeable contract, as teams are always looking for a reliable player with offensive upside.
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Connor Brown is a hometown boy who loves wearing the Toronto Maple Leafs jersey. Let’s keep him in it for at least the next four to six years.
*Stats from Capfriendly.com and NHL.com